Scenarios and Technologies for Decarbonization of Road Transport 2050 Peter Prenninger - AVL List GmbH

Scenarios and Technologies for Decarbonization of Road Transport 2050 Peter Prenninger - AVL List GmbH

European CO2 targets for transport For Road transport this means a reduction from 700 MtCO 2 to less than 280 MtCO 2 p. a. There is a need to significantly reduce transport CO 2 whilst demand is projected to increase To reach the overall European CO 2 targets for transport, a system 2 approach is needed

Efficient vehicles Intelligent traffic management Better infrastructure Public transport and intermodality ERTRAC System approach Improved logistics Infrastructure for connected Decarbonised Flexible and shared & automated vehicles Energy / fuels mobility services 3

KEY QUESTIONS 1 Which technologies can support the decarbonisation (TTW)? 2 3 4 5 X How large is the specific effect? What could be the fleet impact on CO 2? How much energy and which energy is still needed for road transport: electricity? alternative fuels (Btx, Ptx, H2)? What are the research needs? (out of ERTRAC scope): Are we able to produce this energy in a renewable or CO 2 neutral way?

ERTRAC CO 2 Evaluation Group Only technical measures are addressed Fleet calculation is done by simulation tool DIONE by JRC Effects are based on reduction factors (WLTP, RDE etc.) Ranges (optimistic and pessimistic approach) 3 main types of measures: Type A: better vehicle (powertrain, aerodynamics, weight, ) Type B: better traffic conditions ( green traffic light, ) Type C: traffic reduction technologies (load optimization, )

TYPE A: BETTER VEHICLE Super low CD-aerodynamics Light weight chassis Extended 48V mild hybrids FCV with improved efficiency Reduced rolling resistance 50% efficiency engines Auxiliaries on demand Long range plug in hybrids High efficient EV-auxiliaries Exhaust waste heat recovery 6

ERTRAC CO2 Evaluation Experts* * Nominated by the ERTRAC Executive Group OEM Stefan Schmerbeck Staffan Lundgren Supplier Christophe Petitjean Valeo Research Provider Peter Prenninger Andy Ward Volkswagen (cars) Volvo (trucks) AVL Ricardo Academia Zissis Samaras Aristotle University Cities and Regions Thierry Cosemanns, VUBrussels Member States Günther Lichtblau, Umweltbundesamt (AT) Infrastructure Rob Hofman RWS Netherlands Chair Stephan Neugebauer BMW assisted by Peter Kropf, BMW CO2 assessment for the fleet Christian Thiel Jette Krause JRC 7 7

2-wheelers; Small /medium size cars Large cars and SUVs, LCVs, Delivery vans < 7,5t City buses, MDT <12t Trucks > 7,5 t; Long distance buses 2-wheelers; Small /medium size cars Large cars and SUVs Delivery vans < 7,5t; City buses Trucks > 7,5 t; Long distance buses CO2-MEASURE SHT CO2 reduction potential Mileage saving potential No. Name Description of Idea / Technology Working Group Evaluation Group Responsible References Comment Type Type A - Efficiency Improvement CO2-Saving Potential Type C - Usage Change / Reduce Journey Quantity Mileage Saving Potential [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta CO2 ref 2015 baseline] [% delta km [% delta km [% delta km [% delta km [% delta km [% delta km [% delta km [% delta km [%delta no of [%delta no of [%delta no of [%delta no of [%delta no of [%delta no of [%delta no of [%delta no of pa per veh ref pa per veh ref pa per veh ref pa per veh ref pa per veh ref pa per veh ref pa per veh ref pa per veh ref veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] veh ref 2015] 2015] 2015] 2015] 2015] 2015] 2015] 2015] 2015] Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway Urban Rural Highway [max. 5 Words] [Name of WG] [Links, Documents, Study, etc.] [A, B, C] All known technical measures including thermodynamics, Improvements gasoline Peter Prenninger / Andy friction and transmission 15,00 20,00 22,00 24,00 26,00 28,00 9,00 10,00 11,00 11,00 14,00 17,00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 engines See Annex ERTRAC ICE road map 6.1 Ward ERTRAC ICE road map excluding All known waste technical heat measures A including thermodynamics, friction and transmission excluding waste heat 10,00 15,00 20,00 15,00 18,00 23,00 8,00 9,00 10,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 2,50 4,00 4,00 5,00 7,00 9,00 2,50 4,00 4,00 5,00 7,00 9,00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Peter Prenninger / Andy recovery. Peak efficiency of 1 Improvements diesel engines See Annex ERTRAC ICE road map 6.2 Ward ERTRAC ICE road map 50% for Passenger cars and A Waste Heat Recovery Total Vehicle Energy Management Engine Start Stop, electrification of ancillary units (Steering, Climate Compressor, ) Peter Prenninger / Andy Ward ERTRAC ICE road map aggregate of all knowen technologies like heat storage, warm up, turbo compound and thermoelectrik A including e-horizon for powertrain operation, but not "Type B" measures. A 0,00 0,00 1,00 1,00 1,50 4,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 1,00 2,00 5,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 1,00 1,50 3,00 0,00 0,00 4,00 1,00 2,50 4,00 1,00 0,50 0,00 4,00 2,00 2,00 1,00 0,50 0,00 4,00 2,00 2,00 1,00 0,50 0,00 4,00 2,00 2,00 1,00 0,50 0,00 6,00 3,00 3,00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Type A Type B Type C Mild Electrification 48 Volt Plug in Hybrids (PC, trucks, bus, coach), CO2 improvements in ICE mode. Percentage of electic mode Electric Vehicle, Electrical energy requirement, WLTP, including heating, air condition,.. (kwh / km, Plug to wheel). Figures from calculation tool (PC BMW, Trucks Volvo). FCEV: kg (H2)/ km. Generated by electric energy demand of the vehicle ("plug to wheel"), Energy efficiency of fuell cell 50%, 1 kg(h2)=39.4 kwh (higher heating value) Improved Aerodynamics Weight Reduction Integrated Starter-Generator with mild storage system Benefits by optimization of ICE working point in architectures -System and charging infrastructure will be highly developed so that each trip starts in el. Mode for the first 50 km. Urban trips are always rolling resistance Transmission System, Wheels, Tyres,... Rolling Resistance Pavement natural gas (Tank to wheel, fossil) Overall potential for smoothening speed and avoiding stops in real traffic Platooning reduced parking search traffic (urban only) Ride Sharing intermodality of freight (all road types) coordination systems for freight (logistics), all road types Increased Truck Capacity, all road types Increased Bus Capacity Peter Prenninger / Andy Ward Peter Prenninger / Andy Ward Peter Kropf, Staffan Lundgreen Peter Prenninger / Andy Ward Peter Prenninger / Andy Ward Peter Prenninger / Andy Ward ERTRAC Electrification road map ERTRAC Electrification road map Potential of recuperation and assits by 48V-System A PC: no ICE mode in rban area. Penetration rate in 2050 MT: 70%, HD:40%, potential A first 50 km always in el. mode Dimension Wh/km, Figures for HDT/Highway from Volvo: Energy need Powertrain 1250-1750 Wh/km, Multiplication factor for battery charging/discharging 1.1(optimistic) 1.2 (pessimistic). Multiplication factor urban/rual/highway: 0,75/1/1., MDT=HDT*0.3 passenger car Cx=0,21. Over all potential vehicle PC 25 % weight reduction. Trucks reduction up to 2 t. Tyre rolling resistance -10 point A A A 4,00 2,00 0,00 8,00 4,00 2,00 6,00 3,00 0,00 10,00 6,00 2,00 3,00 1,50 0,00 5,00 3,00 1,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,00 2,00 0,50 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10,00 5,00 n.a. 15,00 10,00 n.a. 10,00 5,00 n.a. 15,00 10,00 n.a 10,00 5,00 n.a. 15,00 10,00 n.a. 8,00 4,00 n.a. 12,00 7,00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 100,00 40,00 0,00 100,00 60,00 5,00 100,00 40,00 0,00 100,00 60,00 5,00 100,00 40,00 0,00 100,00 60,00 5,00 100,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 3,00 0,00 180,00 150,00 225,00 150,00 120,00 130,00 210,00 175,00 255,00 170,00 145,00 150,00 480,00 700,00 700,00 340,00 410,00 410,00 1600,00 2100,00 2100,00 1030,00 1375,00 1375,00 assumption 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 Combustion of Methane (CNG, LNG) in optimized Small PC's: substitute of engines - Renewable CNG is an additional gasoline, large cars: substitute measure (here fossil CNG) of diesel. incl. 20,00 20,00 20,00 27,00 27,00 27,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 combustion improvement.efficiency of gas Report of the EU Expert Group HD engines < efficiency of Stefan Schmerbeck on Future Transport Fuels 2012 A Covers all the measures concerning "traffic flow". This means "less stops" and "more constant speed". Potential calculated by comparison of existing WLTP and modified WLTP with less stops and smoothed speed. / CD Peter K. B 5,00 5,00 5,00 15,00 15,00 15,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 15,00 15,00 15,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 15,00 15,00 15,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 15,00 15,00 15,00 aerodynamik advantages and less braking losses. Short distance between trucks in 2050. / CD Staffan L. A thorough monitoring of real-time parking space availability allows direct communication to drivers about the actual offer and allows to cut search traffic (which is now on average 1/3rd of traffic in cities centers). TaxiBots Services for co-loading of freight to increase load space filling rates; and to reduce number of traffic movements and energy consumption Trucks with higher load or higher volume. Public busses with higher capacity (Trailers, ) UM UM UM UM Staffan Staffan all Figures taken from SARTRE testing. Platooning assumed relevant for a hihgway with >1 lane for each direction B 0,00 0,00 6,00 0,00 0,00 15,00 0,00 0,00 6,00 0,00 0,00 15,00 0,00 0,00 6,00 0,00 0,00 15,00 0,00 0,00 5,00 0,00 0,00 12,00 100 % guided parking, one third of PC city traffic is parking traffic, one third of car traffic is inside city centers (urban mileage *0,33 *0,33) CO2 potential of Taxibot unclear but better use of capacity (more than one passenger inside). No scenarios or figures available. Truck and rail n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. C 4,00 10,00 2,00 6,00 0,00 2,00 0,00 0,00 C Expert assessment for the specific potential of each measure. / pessimistic range for all measures. 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,02 0,04 0,04 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,08 0,11 0,11 0,05 0,07 0,07 Three areas: Urban, rural and highway 0,00 2,00 3,50 1,00 3,00 7,00 0,00 2,00 3,50 1,00 3,00 7,00 0,50 1,00 2,00 1,00 2,00 5,00 2,00 3,00 5,00 4,00 7,00 10,00 5,00 3,00 2,00 10,00 7,00 5,00 7,00 5,00 4,00 15,00 11,00 8,00 5,00 3,00 3,00 10,00 6,00 6,00 3,00 1,50 1,50 6,00 3,00 3,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 1,50 1,50 1,50 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 6,00 6,00 6,00 efficiency potential depending on categories: Two-wheelers and small/medium size cars Large cars, SUV s and light commercial vehicles Medium Duty Trucks and City Busses Heavy Duty Trucks and Coaches C 2,00 5,00 Theoretical potential: 30% of truck space today is unused. Figures for realistic asumption. C 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 5,00 10,00 only largest category of HDT effected. 25,25 meter Nordic combination (15- C 5,00 10,00 CO2 potential unclear. Better use of capacity but larger Vehicles even if not fully used. No scenarios or figures available. C 8

Projected Fleet Composition in 2050 Fleet mix similar to today (DIONE Baseline) Long Distance Busses <1% City Busses < 1% Heavy Duty Trucks 2% Delivery Vans 1% Mild Duty Trucks <1% Light Commercial Vehicles 8% Two-Wheelers 14% Passenger Cars are dominating the fleet 2050 Large Cars/ large SUV s 9% Small/Medium Size Cars 66% 9

Projected Fleet Activity by Vehicles 2050 (Vehicle km, DIONE Baseline) Delivery Vans 2% Mild Duty Trucks 1% Long Distance Busses 1% Heavy Duty Trucks 7% Two-Wheelers 4% City Busses <1% Light Commercial Vehicles 12% Large Cars/ large SUV s 11% Small/Medium Size Cars 62% Rising activity with rising vehicle size 10

Powertrain Scenarios 2050 (stock): Highly Electrified Scenario (HE) 100% 50% 40% 100% 60% CNG / LNG ICE 40% 50% 60% 40% 40% Small / med. PC 2 wheeler Large PC/ Large SUV LCV / Delivery Van City Bus Medium Duty Truck Heavy Duty Truck Coach 11

Powertrain Scenarios 2050 (stock): Highly Electrified Scenario incl. Hydrogen (HE-H) FCEV 25% FCEV 40% FCEV 50% FCEV 30% FCEV 30% 100% 25% 50% 40% 30% 50% 40% CNG / LNG 10% ICE 40% Small / med. PC 2 wheeler Large PC/ Large SUV LCV / Delivery Van City Bus Medium Duty Truck Heavy Duty Truck Coach 12

Powertrain Scenarios 2050 (stock): Partly Electrified Scenario (PE) 25% 75% 60% 60% 100% 70% CNG / LNG ICE 60% 40% 40% 30% Small / med. PC 2 wheeler Large PC/ Large SUV LCV / Delivery Van City Bus Medium Duty Truck Heavy Duty Truck Coach 13

Powertrain Scenarios 2050 (stock): Mixed Scenario (MIX) ICE 37,5% ICE ICE ICE 50% ICE 15% CNG / LNG 25% 60% 60% 70% ICE 60% 37,5% 50% 15% Small / med. PC 2 wheeler Large PC/ Large SUV LCV / Delivery Van City Bus Medium Duty Truck Heavy Duty Truck Coach 14

Vehicle kilometers 2050 Fleet Activity by Powertrain 5% Advanced Combustion Engine 16% 4% Advanced Combustion Engine 8% 9% Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle 6% Advanced Combustion Engine 34% 36% Advanced Combustion Engine 34% 79% Battery Electric * 78% Battery Electric* 60% 60% Battery Battery Electric* Electric* 30% Battery Electric* Highly Electrified (HE) Highly Electrified & Hydrogen (HEH) Partly Electrified (PE) * Remark : First 50 km of driving-cycle always in electric mode Mix Scenario 15

CO2 (Mt) 2050 Total CO2 Emissions Road Transport EU Potential of Fleet Mix Change only (TTW) 732 350 621 < 281 270 Conclusions: 1. The change of the fleet mix has the most important 180 effect. Remark: R&I is needed to develop the functionality of electrified vehicles and to create customer acceptance (Range, Charging, Costs,.) 2. The partial electrified and mixed scenario without further efficiency measures will not achieve the CO2-Targets. Road Transport EU 2016 EU Target 2050 (min. 60% Reduction of 1990) HE Scenario (HE) Only Fleet Mix, 2015 state-of-art technology, no further technical improvement HE-H-scenario Only Fleet Mix, 2015 state-of-art technology, no further technical improvement PE-scenario Only Fleet Mix, 2015 state-of-art technology, no further technical improvement MIX Scenario Only Fleet Mix, 2015 state-of-art technology, no further technical improvement 16

CO2 (Mt) 2050 Total CO2 Emissions Road Transport EU Fleet Mix scenarios + all efficiency measures 732 435 Conclusion: < 281 1. In combination with all efficiency measures also scenarios with lower electrification can achieve the CO 2 -reduction. 240 Remark: economical/societal impact is not considered! 190 2. With lower electrification the influence of efficiency measures is more important. 3. The Mix Scenario only offers a critical chance to achieve the CO 2 targets (TTW) 130 140 4. With lower electrification or lower 115 system efficiency the need for 80 decarbonized fuels is becoming more important (Well to wheel, WTW) 270 Road Transport EU 2016 EU Target 2050 (min. 60% Reduction of 2010) - Range HE Scenario, All Measures - Range HE-H Scenario, All Measures - Range PE Scenario, All Measures - Range MIX Scenario, All 17 Measures

Final Energy demand TTW (TWh) 2050 Total Energy Road Transport EU (TTW) 4 Scenarios, Average of opt./pess 2393 Hydrogen Electricity LNG Conclusion: chemical fuels 250 1. Even in scenarios with high electrification 120 more than ~ 50% of total energy demand is for chemical energy carrier (Fuels, Gas, Hydrogen). 320 400 2. Improvement 450 of combustion engine efficiency is important even in highly electrified scenarios. 100 400 1250 100 Question (out of ERTRAC scope): 50 Are we able to produce these energy carriers in a renewable 650 way? 500 350 Road Transport EU 2016 HE-Scenario Average opt./pess. HE-H-scenario, Average opt./pess. PE-scenario, Average opt./pess. MIX Scenario, Average opt./pess. 18

MAIN OUTCOME 2050 (so far) If we put together all technical measures ( fleet + efficiency) For the electrification of the fleet We are able to reduce the TTW CO 2 Emissions in the order of 60% vs. 1990 baseline (Social or economical impact not considered!). Huge investment in R&I is needed to improve the functionality of e-mobility (costs, range, charging, ) Well to Wheel: Electricity has to become zero carbon With - lower electrification - lower efficiency improvements Fossil transport fuels have to be replaced by renewable PtX, Biofuels or Hydrogen. 19

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