March 2, 2 Canola Weekly Index ) Canola Steady Despite Weak Soy Complex 2) Slow Crush Improves Canola Oil Basis ) Export Demand Underpins Canola Last week, we mentioned that May canola had key support at a previous low of $368.. We worried that if that support was broken, heavy fund selling would be triggered. At the same time, we pointed out that substantial export demand was lingering just below that price level, and that a speculative sell off could be a buying opportunity for end users. Well, May canola did break that support earlier this week and some sell stops were triggered. However, those sell stops were not nearly as large as we had anticipated, and they were easily absorbed by that much-anticipated export buying. If the export demand wasn t enough, a significant rally in bean oil, combined with a break in the Canadian dollar brought the domestic crushers back into the game. Even though COPA members have been running at a very slow pace in the last few weeks, crushers did appear to be locking in board margins during the earlier part of this week s trade. (A sharp rally in the Canadian dollar on Friday cooled crusher buying however.) 39 38 WCE May/ Canola 36 35 33 32 Sell stops below $368. were met with solid export demand. 3 -Jul 9-Aug -Sep 2-Oct 2-Nov -Jan 8-Feb 6-Mar Lombard Avenue, Suite 2 Winnipeg, Manitoba R3B X Canada Phone: (2) 9- Fax: (2) 9- www.informaecon.com/canada.htm
Canola Weekly March 2, 2 Page 2 It is interesting to note that funds were not major sellers on the break. They appear to have liquidated more than two-thirds of their previous long positions earlier. As such, they may be getting to the point where further selling is going to be limited. For the time being at least, they also don t appear to be ready to establish a short position in canola. Country basis levels had been weakening in canola, with the recent rail strike exacerbating the situation. Country stocks of canola were on the rise, and futures were under pressure from fund selling. The combined effect has taken street prices down below most producers target ranges. As you can see on the chart below, farm deliveries have been gradually easing lower with the market declines. While we expect to see some steady farm deliveries in the next couple of weeks, it is important to remember that country movement of canola tends to ease up from late March, as road bans and then seeding limits deliveries into the system. 3 Weekly Canola Farm Deliveries 2 5 5 6 6/ Crop Year Year Average With the possibility of slower country movement in mind, traders should be aware that country basis levels may continue to strengthen in the weeks ahead, in order to encourage some additional movement. The current export line up shows almost 39, tonnes required in Vancouver alone over the new few weeks. There is also a vessel listed in Prince Rupert and some movement has even been seen out of the St. Lawrence. Feeding that movement means farm selling can not afford to drop off too far. Copyright 2 by Informa Economics, Inc.
Canola Weekly March 2, 2 Page 3 PAR Region - Daily Canola Basis -5 - -5-2 - -3-35 - Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 5 Year Average 6/ Crop Year The threat of a major fund sell off has not disappeared altogether, but it does seem to have diminished to some degree this week. Export interest in canola remains high on any decline in prices. We expect canola to remain locked in its recent range in the short term, but still maintain a bullish bias in the longer term. It will likely take confirmation of very large acreage and good yield prospects to top the canola market. That s something that we don t see in the cards until at least the last half of April, if not later. Producers are advised to be 5% sold on old crop and 2% sold on new crop canola. Anyone not at those levels should use current prices to get caught up. We continue to encourage end users to use any price declines as buying opportunities. There is risk of seasonal rallies in both basis and futures in the next few months. 2) Slow Crush Improves Canola Oil Basis Earlier, we mentioned that canola crush in Canada (as reported by COPA) had been running at a very slow pace over the last few weeks. While that factor is bearish for canola seed prices, it does appear to be having the desired effect on cash canola oil values. Firmer basis levels have been seen on the Canadian side of the border, as stocks of canola oil are finally beginning to tighten. For example, (all basis levels quoted in C$) super-degummed canola oil was quoted at points over in the Toronto area, which is up about from week ago levels. Fully refined canola oil basis in the Toronto region was also up about points this week, with traders offering 68 over. Vancouver basis was quoted over. However, US canola oil basis was steady in both New York and the west coast, showing that tighter canola oil stocks have not yet become a major factor in American markets. David Reimann & Chuck Penner Informa Economics Inc. Winnipeg This copyrighted material is intended for the use of clients of Informa Economics, Inc., only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Informa Economics, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable and the views expressed within this document reflect judgments at this time and are subject to change without notice. Informa Economics, Inc. does not guarantee that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Copyright 2 by Informa Economics, Inc.
55 WCE Canola - Nearby Futures 5 5 35 3 2 8 85 86 8 88 89 9 9 92 93 9 95 96 9 98 99 2 2 23 2 26 Canadian Canola Supply and Disposition 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 Supply Harvested Acres, 's,58 2,,5,5, Yield (bu/acre).8 2.9 32.6 3.5 3.6 Production 6,, 9,66 9,5 9,8 Imports 2 8 Total Supply,98 8,,386,2, Disposition Crush 3,39 3, 3,23 3,5 3,8 Feed, Seed & Waste 56 5 533 6 55 Exports 3,5 3,2 5,2 5,6 5,93 Total Disposition,299 6,858 9,36 9,95,35 Ending Stocks 69,58 2,,5,2 Stocks/Use 8% 23% % 5% % 2 Informa Economics, Inc.
Canadian Canola Seeded Acreage Canadian Canola Yields 5,5 35,5,5 3 Thousand acres 2,5,5,5 Bushels/acre 2 9,5 8,5 5,5 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 Canadian Canola Production Canadian Canola Supply 2, 2,,, 8, 6,, 8, 6,, 2, 2, 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 Canadian Canola Exports Canadian Canola Crush,, 6, 3,5 5,, 3, 2, 3, 2,5 2,,,5, 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 Canadian Canola Ending Stocks Canola Stocks-to-Use Ratio 2,5 35% 2, 3%,5, 5 Percent % 2% 5% % 5% 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 % 93/9 9/95 96/9 9/98 99/ / /2 2/3 3/ /5 5/6 6/ /8 2 Informa Economics, Inc.
,2 Canadian Canola Visible Supplies Canola Visible Supplies As a Percent of Total Supply, %, 9 8 6 5 3 2% Percent % 8% 6% % 2% % 6 6 Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year Vancouver Canola Stocks 2 5 5 5 Primary Elevator Canola Stocks 6 Process Elevator Canola Stocks 39 29 2 2 8 9 6 6 3 Weekly Canola Farm Deliveries 2 5 5 3 5 9 Thunder Bay Canola Stocks 8 6 2 8 6 2 6 6 5 Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year 5 Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year 6 Year Average 5/6Crop Year 6/ Crop Year Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year Canola - Farm Deliveries As a Percent of Total Supply 3.5% 3.% Percent 2.5% 2.%.5%.%.5%.% 3 5 9 5 2 23 2 29 33 35 39 5 5 5 2 23 2 29 33 35 39 5 6/ Crop Year Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 5 Year Average 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year 2 Informa Economics, Inc.
2 Canadian Canola Weekly Exports 6, Cumulative Canadian Canola Exports 8 6 2 8 6 5,, 3, 2, 2 6, 6 6/ Actual Informa Required -yr Avg Year Average 6/ Crop Year 6/ Forecast Canola Board Crush Margin Index COPA's Canola Crush 5 9 8 US$ Dollar 9 6 5 3 5 2 3 Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb- Apr- Jun- 6 6/ Crop Year 6/ Required 5-yr avg % COPA's Canola Capacity Utilization Canola - Weekly Disappearance Percent 9% 8% % 6% 5% % 3% 5 5 2% % % Aug-2 Nov-2 Feb-3 May-3 Aug-3 Nov-3 Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb-5 May-5 Aug-5 Nov-5 Feb-6 May-6 Aug-6 Nov-6 Jan- May- Aug- 6 6/ Crop Year Year Average 5/6 Crop Year, Cumulative Canola Disappearance 55 WCE Canola - Nearby Futures 3,5 5 3, 2,5 2,,5, 5 35 3 5 6 Yr Avg 5/6 Crop Year 6/ Crop Year 6/ Forecast 2 8 85 86 8 88 89 9 9 92 93 9 95 96 9 98 99 2 2 23 2 26 2 Informa Economics, Inc.
WCE Canola May- PAR Region - Daily Canola Cash Price 2 5 5 38 36 32 35 3 3 2 Apr-6 May-6 Feb-98 Aug-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb- Aug- Feb- Aug- Feb-2 Aug-2 Feb-3 Jun-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Feb- Mar- Aug-3 Feb- Aug- Feb-5 Aug-5 Feb-6 Aug-6 Feb- 3 2 - -2 PAR Region - Daily Canola Basis -5 - -5-2 - -3 PAR Region - Daily Canola Basis -3-35 - - -5 Feb-98 Aug-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb- Aug- Feb- Aug- Feb-2 Aug-2 Feb-3 Aug-3 Feb- Aug- Feb-5 Aug-5 Feb-6 Aug-6 Feb- -Aug 6-Aug 3-Aug -Sep -Sep -Oct 2-Oct -Nov 2-Nov -Dec 2-Dec -Jan -Jan 8-Feb 23-Feb 9-Mar 23-Mar 6-Apr 2-Apr -May 8-May -Jun 5 Year Average 6/ Crop Year 5-Jun 29-Jun -Jul 2-Jul Vancouver - Daily Canola Basis Vancouver - Daily Canola Basis 5 2 3 2 5 5 - Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Jan-2 May-2 Sep-2 Jan-3 Jun-3 Oct-3 Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb-5 Jun-5 Oct-5 Mar-6 Jul-6 Nov-6 Mar- Jul- -Aug -Aug -Sep -Sep -Oct 2-Oct 6-Nov -Nov -Dec -Dec -Jan 26-Jan 2-Feb -Feb 5-Mar 3-Mar 6-Apr -May 6-May -May 5-Jun 5 Year Average 6/ Crop Year 2-Jul -Jul Veg Oil Prices North America Canola Meal Prices North America 35 2 US$ per cwt 3 2 5 US dollars per ton 5 5 Oct- Dec- Mar-2 May-2 Aug-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Nov-3 Feb- Apr- Jul- Oct- Dec- Mar-5 May-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Feb- Apr- Jun-99 Oct-99 Mar- Jul- Nov- Apr- Aug- Jan-2 May-2 Oct-2 Feb-3 Jul-3 Nov-3 Mar- Aug- Dec- Apr-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Feb- Canola Oil - Toronto Soyoil - Decatur California Velva Altona 2 Informa Economics, Inc.
29 Euronext Rapeseed Nearby Rapeseed Cash Crush - Hamburg 2 2 Euros per tonne 23 2 US$ per tonne 8 6 2 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Feb- Mar- May- Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar-2 Sep-2 Mar-3 Sep-3 Mar- Sep- Mar-5 Sep-5 Mar-6 Sep-6 Mar- Veg Oil Prices NW Europe Veg Meal Prices NW Europe 9 8 35 US$ per tonne 6 5 US$ per tonne 3 2 3 5 2 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-2 May-2 Sep-2 Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Jan-2 May-2 Sep-2 Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Jan- May- Soy oil Crude palm oil Rape oil Soy Meal Rape Meal Lin Meal 2 Informa Economics, Inc.