Renewable energy carriers: Biofuels und Hydrogen Amela Ajanovic Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group
Contents Introduction Biofuels Economic and ecological assessment Hydrogen Economic and ecological assessment Conclusions
Introduction Alternative energy carriers Mature AEC Electricity 1st gen. biofuels: Bioethanol Biogas Biodiesel AEC in labour stage 3rd gen. biofuels: Biofuels from algae. Inmature AEC 2nd gen. biofuels: Bioethanol from Lignocellulose BtL Bio-SNG Bio-DME Hydrogen Technology suprise! 4th gen.biofuels.
Introduction Production Storage & transport Conv. into service CO2 emissions BF-1 Minor problems No problem No problem Problem BF-2 Problem No problem No problem No problem H2 No problem No problem Problem Depends
Introduction India China Canada World EU US Brazil 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% Share of biofuels in total road-fuel consumption in energy terms, 2007 (Source: F.O.Licht,IEA)
Biofuels production 60000 50000 Milion litres 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Brazil USA Canada China India EU Other Recent trends in ethanol production (Source: F.O.Licht,IEA)
Biofuels production 8 7 6 5 Mtoe 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 EU US Other Recent trends in biodiesel production (Source: F.O.Licht,IEA)
Land resources and land use Europe + 20% Oceania + 3% Africa + 16% Asia + 35% Americas + 26% Arable land, (Source: FAO,2007)
Land resources and land use Other land 31% Arable land 11% Permanent crops 1% Permanent meadows and pastures 26% Forest area 31%
Introduction BF-2: Major advantages expected are: better ecological performance: low life-cycle carbon emissions; no associated land-use changes; due to the fact that they are produced from lignocellulose also huge potential for feedstocks required are expected. if produced on large scale also economic competiveness is expected.
Well-to-Wheels Pathways WTW WTT TTW + Feedstock Fuels Powertrain
Environmental performance CALCULATION OF WTT- FUEL NET BALANCE SNG BE-2 WTT = WTT-minus + WTT-plus BD-2 BD-1 BM WTT-plus.. CO2 fixation due to biomass planting BE-1 WTT -Fuel Net WTT-Plus WTT - Minus CNG Diesel Gasoline WTT-minus CO2 emissions during fuel production -80-60 -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 gco2_equ/mj (Source: Joanneum Research calculations)
Environmental performance WTT-, TTW- AND WTW-NET EMISSIONS 2010 SNG BE-2 BD-2 BM BD-1 BE-1 CNG Diesel Gasoline -60-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 WTT-Fuel Net TTW-Fuel WTW-Fuel gco2_equ/mj WTT-, TTW- and WTW net CO 2 emissions of fossil vs biofuels in 2010 for the average of EU countries on a WTW (Source: Joanneum Research calculations)
Energetic assessment 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 fossil renewable kwh_in/kwh_out BD-1 Rape seed BE-1 Wheat BG-1 Green Maize BD-2 FT-Diesel (Wood) BE-2 Straw BG-2 SNG (Wood) BD-1 Rape seed BE-1 Wheat BG-1 Green Maize BD-2 FT-Diesel (Wood) BE-2 Straw BG-2 SNG (Wood) 2010 2050 Energetic assessment of the considered biofuels for 2010 and 2050 (Source: Joanneum Research calculations)
Economic assessment Calculation of biofuel costs Total biofuel production costs (C BF ) for year t are calculated as follows: C BF = C FS + C GC + C D Sub BF C D.distribution and marketing costs Sub BF.subsidies for biofuels C GC.gross conversion costs of biofuels plant C GC = IC CRF T IC.investment costs CRF capital recovery factor T operating hours per year
Economic assessment Calculation of the feedstock costs are calculated as follows: C FS = P f FS CON f TC + C TR R by P FS.feedstock price f CON.conversion factor f TC..factor for transaction costs C TR.feedstock transport costs R by.revenues from by-products
Biofuel Production Costs PRODUCTION COSTS FOSSIL VS BIOFUELS 2010 CNG SNG BM Gasoline BE-2 BE-1 Diesel BD-2 BD-1-5 0 5 10 15 20 cent/kwh fuel Feedstock Capital Other inputs Energy costs Other O&M By-Product Credit Marketing & Distr. Market price Production costs of fossil vs biofuels excl. taxes in 2010 for the average of EU countries
US(1990)$/kW Economic analysis 20000 1983 10000 5000 2000 1981 USA Japan Photovoltaics (learning rate ~ 20%) 1982 1992 1995 Windmills (USA) (learning rate ~ 20%) RD&D phase Commercialization phase C( x) = a x b C(x): Specific cost x: Cumulative capacity b: Learning index a: Specific cost of the first unit 1000 1987 p b = 2 500 1963 P: progress ratio 200 Gas turbines (USA) (learning rate ~ 20%, ~10%) 1980 100 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cumulative MW installed Technology learning curves
Economic analysis Technological learning : ICt ( x) = ICCon_ t ( x) + ICNew_ where: IC Con_t (x) specific investment cost of conventional mature technology components ( /kw) x..cumulative capacity up to year t (kw) For IC Con_t (x) no more learning is expected. For IC New_t (x) we have to consider a national and an international learning effect: IC New_t (x) = IC New_t (x nat_t ) + IC New_t (x int_t ) where: IC New_t (x nat_t )..specific national part of IC New_t (x) of new technology components ( /kw) IC New_t (x int_t )..specific international part of IC New_t (x) of new technology components ( /kw) t ( x)
Economic analysis BF-2_pess BF-1_pess Uncertainty: current costs of BF-2 Foss_high BF-2_opt BF-1_opt EUR/kWh Foss_low 2010 2050 Possible range of scenarios for the development of costs of fossil fuels and biofuels up to 2050
Economic analysis Small scale EUR/kWh Large scale 2010 2050 Cost of fossil fuels vs biofuels incl. and excl. taxes in 2010 vs 2050 for the average of EU-countries in prices of 2010
Economic analysis 35 COSTS OF FOSSIL & BIOFUELS INCL. AND EXCL. TAXES 2010 VS 2050 30 cent/kwh 25 20 15 EUR/kWh Small scale 10 5 Large scale 0 Diesel BD-1 BD-2 2010 Gasoline BE-1 BE-2 CNG BM SNG Diesel BD-1 BD-2 Gasoline BE-1 BE-2 2010 2050 Costs 2010 Excise tax 2010 VAT Costs 2050 CO2-tax 2050 VAT 2020 CNG BM SNG 2050 Cost of fossil fuels vs biofuels incl. and excl. taxes in 2010 vs 2050 for the average of EU-countries in prices of 2010
Economic analysis 50 45 40 BD-2 COSTS & CO2-EMISSIONS OF BIOFUELS 2010 BE-2 EUR/GJ 35 30 25 20 15 BM BD-1 BE-1 CNG Gasoline Diesel 10 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 gco2equ/mj Biofuels vs. fossil fuels state of the art assessment 2010 of production costs [ /GJ] (exclusive taxes) and WTW CO2 emissions [g CO2equ/MJ]
Hydrogen Characteristic of H2: Hydrogen is the simplest, lightest and most abundant element in the universe. It constitutes about three-quarters of the mass of the universe, but it does not exist on the earth in elemental form in quantities associated with energy use. It can be produced from different energy sources.
Hydrogen supply chains Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal HIGH EFFICIENCY & RELIABILITY Transportation Nuclear Oil Coal Natural Gas With Carbon Sequestration ZERO/NEAR ZERO EMISSIONS Distributed Generation
Hydrogen H2-RES_Wind_LS H2_RES_Wind_SS H2_EUMIX_RES_LS H2_EUMIX_RES_SS H2_NG EUMIX_LS H2_NG EUMIX_SS Feedstock Costs Capital Costs Operating Costs H2_NG Russia_LS H2_NG Russia_SS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 H2 costs (c /kwh) Production Costs of H2 from various RES and NG sources (as of 2010)
Hydrogen DRIVING COSTS OF CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES 2010 Diesel-ICE Gasol-ICE Diesel-Hybrid-ICE Gasol-Hybrid-ICE BEV (RES-mix) BEV (new NG) Investment costs O&M costs Fuel costs BEV (UCTE Coal Mix) FCV (H2 RES-Mix) FCV (H2 NG) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 EUR/km Hydrogen and Electric vehicles vs conventional passenger cars State of the Art of economic assessment of driving costs 2010 (Size of vehicle: 80 kw)
Hydrogen CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES 2.5 2 FCV-RES-Mix FCV H2-Nat.Gas EUR/km 1.5 1 BEV-RES-Mix BEV-Nat.Gas New BEV-UCTE-Mix 0.5 Gasol.Hybrid ICE Gasol. ICE 0 Diesel Hybrid ICE Diesel ICE 0 50 100 150 200 gco2/km Comparison of specific CO 2 emissions and driving costs of conventional and hybrid gasoline and diesel vehicles with pure BEV based on different electricity generation mixes and FCV with hydrogen from NG vs RES
Conclusions BF-1: limited available feedstocks the modest ecological performance BF-2: a wide range of new feedstocks high costs economically competitive by 2050 H 2 : secondary energy carrier high costs infrastructure
Conclusions achievement of significant learning effects leading to considerable lower plant costs; significant improvement of conversion efficiency from feedstock to fuel leading to lower feedstock prices and better ecological performance; increases in conventional diesel and gasoline prices, e.g. due to CO 2 based taxes. proper tax policies and continuous increases of fossil fuel prices could make AEC competitive in the market.
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