Bob Yuhnke Southwest Energy Efficiency Project Regional Air Quality Council 8/6/2010
Millions of Tons of CO2 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2005 Levels Emissions Eliminated Due to Adoption and Extension of Clean Car Standards Emissions Eliminated Due to VMT Reductions from Transit Development, Urban Design & User Fees Emissions Eliminated Due to 40% Penetration of Plug-In Electric Hybrids by 2040: Possible through Feebate Emissions Eliminated Due to VMT Reductions from Pay as You Drive Insurance Emissions Eliminated Due to Remaining Policies that Improve Fuel Efficiency 20 15 10 5 0 2020 CAP Goal: 20% below 2005 levels 2050 CAP Goal: 80% below 2005 levels Emissions between 2040-2050 are projected trends 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Emissions Eliminated Due to Improving Heavy Truck Efficiency Remaining Emissions Due to Aircraft Remaining Emissions Due to Diesel Consumption Remaining Emissions Due to Gasoline Consumption
Federal and State Strategies Extending Clean Car Standards beyond 2016 State Strategies 1-10 1 Promotion of Fuel Efficient Vehicles Total Costs ($ millions) Total Benefits ($ millions) Net Benefits ($ millions) $ Benefit per ton of avoided CO 2 3,190 6,598 3,408 51 A Feebate/PHEV 386 4,643 4,257 211 B Accelerated Retirement 246 1,085 839 481 VMT Reduction 2 3 Transit Development Urban Design 6,200 10,239 4,039 67 4 User Fees 5 PAYD 6 6,397 6,391 176 Vehicle Enhancements & Operating Conditions 6 55 Speed Limit 0 7,980 7,980 161 7 Efficient Tires 64 2,240 2,176 153 Heavy Duty Trucks 8 Efficiency Requirement 1,130 4,300 3,170 107 9 Diesel Hybrid & Longer, Heavier Trailers 781 2,282 1,501 87 10 Clean Car Standards 2010-2011 40 569 529 266 Cumulative 12,043 46,333 34,290 100
Tons per Day 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Baseline Blueprint 20 10 0 NOx VOC NOx VOC 2015 2020
Fuel Savings (barrels) Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings $3.21 (2008 price) Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings $2.50 Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings $4.00 PAYD 11.6 million $984 million $767 million $1.2 billion VMT Reduction 13.3 million $1.1 billion $877 million $1.4 billion Cash for Clunkers 5.1 million $442 million $344 million $551 million Speed Limit 15 million $1.3 billion $1.0 billion $1.6 billion Total 45.0 million $3.82 billion $2.98 billion $4.75 billion
Tons per Day NOx 120 100 80 60 40 Speed Limit Cash for Clunkers PAYD VMT Suite Remaining NOx Emissions 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tons per Day VOC 120 100 80 Cash for Clunkers 60 PAYD VMT Suite 40 Remaining VOC Emissions 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VMT Reductions NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 2.8 million VMT 2015 2020 % % 2.9% 8.9 million VMT 8% 2.2 tons 3.1% 5.6 tons 10.2% 2.5 tons 3.1% 6.8 tons 9.9%
Project Projected Cost (billions) Funds Available Funding Shortfall I-25 North $4.4 $0.3 $4.1 I-70 West $8.6 $1.6 $7.0 I-70 East $1.2-$1.9 $0.4 $0.8-$1.5 FasTracks $6.5 $4.1 $2.4 Total $20.7 -$21.4 $6.4 $14.3 - $15.0
Authorizes user fees to fund new capacity. Requires agreement of all local jurisdictions affected by project. Exempt from TABOR because fees fund an enterprise. - Authorizes expenditure of fees on facilities that reduce GHG emissions. - Authorizes collection of fees for use of existing capacity in addition to new capacity.
Illinois Tollway (2008) Indiana Toll Road New York Thruway (2010) Ohio Turnpike Colorado: I-70 and I-25 Pennsylvania Turnpike New Jersey Turnpike Toll Roads Cost per Mile $0.14 $0.12 $0.10 $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00
Estimated 29.7 million Daily VMT in 2020 on I-70 and I-25 corridors within nonattainment area User fees would reduce VMT an estimated 664,000 miles/day (2.2%) Based on elasticity of -0.2. A 10% increase in driving costs results in a 2% reduction in VMT.
Assumptions for SWEEP VMT scenario: Complete FasTracks/NexTracks buildout 80% of new housing and jobs within walk/bike access to regional transit station User fees on all major regional highways 1% annual reduction in VMT/capita in metro areas DRCOG most aggressive scenario F (2007): 3.5 billion annual VMT reduction SWEEP scenario: 10 billion annual VMT reduction
Cost: $10.6 billion $5.3 billion if 50% federal share Benefits: 85 million barrels of oil saved (assumes 55 mpg CAFE by 2030) $4.4 billion avoided fuel costs (at $3.21/gallon) $2.3 billion in infrastructure cost savings (DRCOG estimate for Scenario F compared to Vision baseline) 2.4 million tons of avoided CO 2 emissions 24% reduction in gasoline CO 2 emissions in 2035 compared to Vision baseline
VMT Reductions NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 2.6 million VMT 2015 2020 % % 2.6% 7.8 million VMT 6.9% 2.0 tons 2.8% 4.9 tons 8.9% 2.3 tons 2.8% 5.9 tons 8.6%
2015 2020 55 mph 60 mph 55 mph 60 mph NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 17 tons 0.5 tons 6.3 tons 0.3 tons -0.72 tons 0.0 tons -0.37 tons -0.02 tons
1.00 0.99.8.6 0.61 NOx.1 0.09 VOC 0.07.05.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.007 0.003 Average ICE New ICE (Federal Standard) Civic CNG Prius Electric Vehicle
Millions of Tons 35 30 25 20 15 10 Gasoline Natural Gas (100%) Electric (coal mix & 25% gasoline) Electric (no coal & 25% gasoline) Electric (no coal & 25% biofuel) 5 80% below 2005 levels 0 2005 2030 2050
State Income Tax Credit, HB 1331 75% tax credit for incremental cost Revenue Neutral Cash for Clunkers (proposed) Fee on least efficient 50% of new vehicle sales Reward for scrapping vehicles < 16 mpg and > 8 years old Voucher for purchase of top 20% of passenger vehicles and top 10% of light trucks in current model year Voucher worth 50% more if used to purchase high efficiency vehicle
NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 2015 2020 % % 1.6 tons 2.3% 2.5 tons 4.5% 1.7 tons 2.1% 2.9 tons 4.2%
Make/Model EV or PHEV Battery Size (kwh) Electric Range (miles) Target Intro in US Estimated Price Audi A1 Sportback PHEV 20 2011 BMW ActiveE EV 125 100 Field trial in 2011 BYD E6 EV 75-200 Up to 200 2010 BYD F3DM PHEV 60 2010 $22,000 Coda Sedan EV 90-120 2010 $45,000 Daimler Smart ED EV 90+ 2012 Fisker Karma PHEV 50 2010 $87,900 Ford Escape PHEV 10 40 2012 Ford Focus EV 100 2011 Chevy Volt PHEV 16 40 $35,000? Hyundai Blue Will PHEV 38 2012 Hyundai i10 EV 100 2012 Mitsubishi imiev PHEV 16 50 2010 (limited) $47,500 Fiat Micro-Vett e500 EV 75 2012 Nissan Leaf EV 24 100 2010 (limited) $32,780 Tesla Model S EV 150-300 2011 $57,400 Tesla Roadster EV 220 2010 $109,000 Think City EV 80 2010 Toyota Prius PHEV 10-18 2010 mass production 2012 $27,550 Volkswagen Twin Drive PHEV 30 2013 Volvo V70 PHEV 31 2012