A perspective on the refining industry Platts European Refining Summit Brussels, 29 September2016 Kristine Petrosyan, International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2016
mb/d European refiners: busy 2015 OECD Europe refinery intake 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 First annual average runs increase since 2005. Robust 700 kb/d yoy: third of global gains last year. Beat China, US, Middle East gains. Healthy 85% utilisation rates, after an average of 78% for two previous years.
$/b Grab the margins while they last NWE margins 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Brent NWE cracking Brent NWE HSK Sustained margin recovery from historical lows of early 2014. Even NWE hydroskimming margins were positive most of 2015. Same picture worldwide refiners are earning, while the upstream profits plummet.
Refining saves the day Upstream vs downstream earnings $bln 170 140 110 80 50 20-10 Oil company earnings by segment* 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 upstream downstream *BP, Exxon, Shell, Total, Lukoil, Sinopec mb/d Refinery throughput changes (2006-2015) 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3-0.2-0.7-1.2 BP Exxon Shell Total Lukoil Sinopec
mb/d Enthusiastic demand response to price Oil price vs 2011-2013 average 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Annual global demand growth 2005 2007 2009* 2011 2013 2015 *2008-2010 values are normalised for recession and recovery By end-2014 oil prices had lost 30% vs the previous 3 year avg. By end-2015, losses amounted to 60%. 2015 saw biggest annual demand growth rate in 10 years (excluding post-recession recovery of 2010). OECD demand growth was led by the US, but Europe added some 200 kb/d too.
Not all demand growth matters to refiners Breakdown of oil demand 2005 Breakdown of oil demand 2015 1% 0.1% Biofuels CTL/GTL 3% 0.3% 1% Direct crude use 1% Refineries 90% 8% Natural gas liquids products from fractionation plants 10% 86% Refineries 1/7 of oil demand is taken by non-refinery products. Biofuels are the visible part of the iceberg, fractionation products (ethane, LPG and naphthas) the invisible.. Gradual erosion of refineries market share. Total demand growth 2005-2015: 9.7 mb/d. Growth of refinery product market: 4.9 mb/d.
Strongest growth in non-refined category 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Oil product demand changes 2010-15 Compound annual growth rates Petrochemical feedstocks saw strongest growth. All can be supplied by fractionators. Light and middle distillates saw more modest growth rates Fuel oil declined
mb/d Capacity growth two steps ahead of demand? 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Annual growth 2005-15 2005 2007 2009* 2011 2013 2015 Refinery Total demand Capacity growth *2008-2010 values are normalised for recession and recovery Total oil demand grew a reasonable 10 mb/d in the last 10 years. Refined product demand only grew by 5 mb/d. It didn t grow at all during 2008-2010, neither in 2014. Refinery capacity grew by 8.7 mb/d (4 mb/d in 2008-2010...)
mb/d Refinery market share next five years: good news and bad news 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Total change, 2015-21 2009-15 2015-21 Total demand Refinery demand Capacity The good news: higher total demand growth, higher refined product demand growth (5.9 mb/d vs 3.2 mb/d) The bad news: more aggressive capacity expansion: 7.7 vs 3.2. Spare capacity to increase by at least 1 mb/d.
1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016 Non-OECD refiners back to the driving seat mb/d 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Global Crude Throughputs Annual Change -1.0 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 OECD Non-OECD mb/d OECD vs. Non-OECD Crude Runs 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 OECD Non-OECD In 2Q16 non-oecd runs are forecast to rise to 42 mb/d, a level never reached by OECD refiners before. Despite bright spots (Korea, US), OECD runs resume declining trend.
mb/d Europe and the US worlds apart? 4.0 3.0 Unused CDU capacity Refined products balance OECD Europe US Capacity above local demand 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Capacity shutdowns since 2007 OECD Europe: 2 mb/d US: 1.2 mb/d Both OECD Europe and the US face declining demand, with growing capacity overhang. Europe went through more aggressive rationalisation. Europe could expand refinery runs to cover remaining imports? While the US, if deprived of export markets, would face bigger overcapacity.
European bias towards middle distillates OECD Europe demand barrel Rest of world demand barrel Middle Distillates 56% 8% 7% 7% Other products Fuel oil Ethane/LPG 9% 5% 12% Middle Distillates 38% 22% Light distillates 36% Ratio of middle distillates demand to gasoline demand World average 1.4 Europe average 4 France, Spain 6-7 UK, Germany, Italy 3 US 0.7
Refining impasse? OECD Europe demand barrel OECD Europe refinery yields Middle Distillates 56% 8% 7% 7% Other products Fuel oil Ethane/LPG 4% 10% 8% Middle Distillates 48% 22% Light distillates 30% Euro refiners have some of the highest middle distillates yields. But the region still imports almost fifth of middle distillates consumed (1.3 mb/d) Exports third of gasoline output (1 mb/d). Gasoline export markets are shrinking, US already balanced/exports.
Diesel deluge Regional diesel balances (2015), kb/d -900 +1200 +900 +200 +300 Middle East values show export-oriented output For every barrel of European import requirement: 2-3 barrels competing as Europe remains the primary target. Russian switch to 10 ppm over last few years big blow to European cracks. New Middle East volumes full impact not seen yet, more pressure in summer.
Echoes of 2009 Diesel stocks in OECD Europe ULSD 10 ppm cracks, NWE 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Range 2005-14 2010 2015 2016 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010-2014 range 2014 2015 2016 High imports, high refinery runs, warm winter = record seasonal stock builds in Europe in Q4. Floating storage reported, Asian cargoes taking longer routes. ULSD 10 ppm NWE barges cracks at historical lows.
Diesel has become irrelevant? $/bbl Regional cracking margins 17.5 15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0-2.5-5.0 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Singapore NWE USGC $/bbl 17.5 15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0-2.5-5.0 Regional cracking margins with diesel cracks at zero Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Singapore NWE USGC Diesel cracks are so low, And gasoline cracks are so high.. That were diesel to go to parity with crude, complex margins in NWE and USGC would still be positive..
Less reliance on heating oil Fuel mix of heating demand in Europe 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oil Coal Gas Electricity Heat Bioenergy Oil used to account for a quarter of heating demand in Europe Oil s share down to 15-17%. Also, total energy used for heating is down (efficiency measures). A loss of 450 kb/d of middle distillates demand.
Diesel is now a summer product $/bbl 30 European diesel and gasoline cracks 10% Winter demand vs summer in Europe as percentage of annual average 25 20 5% 15 10 5 Copyright 2016 Argus Media Ltd 0 Jan 14May 14Sep 14Jan 15May 15Sep 15Jan 16 NWE Prem Unl NWE ULSD 0% -5% -10% 2003 2007 2011 2015 Middle distillates Gasoline Due to losses in heating sector, middle distillates have turned into a summer product.
$/b mb/d Gasoline performance disappearing act? 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NWE gasoline cracks Apr Jul Oct Jan 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Atlantic basin gasoline balance, mb/d Impressive performance of gasoline cracks last year. US net exporter now but East Coast still dependant on Europe. Atlantic Basin turned net long gasoline last year, surplus will grow rapidly as demand for refinery gasoline stagnates. By 2021, Europe s net length will be double the net short of Atlantic basin importers. 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1-0.2-0.3 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
mb/d More rationalisation yet to come 2015-2021 changes 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Atlantic basine gasoline length growth Europe mid distillates imports increase Europe's lost gasoline demand since 2009 Atlantic basin gasoline growth adj Europe mid distillates imports increase adj By 2021, half of Europe s gasoline length will have no market in the Atlantic basin. Middle distillates imports expected to grow by 600 kbd. If dieselisation is reversed, and lost gasoline volumes come back European diesel/gasoline balances will improve.
mb/d More rationalisation to come European refining capacity, demand and crude output 25 20 15 10 5 1962 1972 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 Refinery capacity Total demand Crude oil output Since 2008 Europe closed 2 mb/d of capacity. In historical terms, this is not much 7 mb/d was shut in 1970s-80s. Oil price recovery will be mostly supply driven (as Non-OPEC output adjusts) - negative implications for margins.
More rationalisation to come 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Exposed capacity in NWE countries mb/d 1.5 UK France Germany Netherlands share of exposed in total capacity total exposed capacity (RHS) Belgium 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: CIEP Half of the 7mb/d capacity in NWE regions is a candidate for restructurization. But political barriers and site clean-up costs likely to save 1.5 mb/d. France most exposed, Germany most protected.
Thank you kristine.petrosyan@iea.org