Recent Developments in EU Refining and in the Supply and Trade of Petroleum Products Second Meeting of the EU Refining Forum Brussels, 27 November 2013 Toril Bosoni, International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2013
European Refinery Activity Takes Another Dive Throughputs hits lowest level in 25 years in October 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 1 OECD Europe Crude Throughput Mar May Jul Sep Nov Range 08-12 Average 08-12 2012 2013 est. 2013 2014 est. 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 1 OECD Europe Crude Throughputs 9.0 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 Preliminary Euroilstock data show October EU16+Nor Refinery crude intake plummet to lowest level since April 1989 September throughputs were already curtailed to lowest level since April 1991
Refinery Margins and Company Earnings Plummet Despite Peak Autumn Maintenance $/bbl Refining Margins Northwest Europe 15.0 12.5 1 7.5 5.0 2.5-2.5-5.0-7.5 06 08 10 12 Urals (HS) Urals (Cracking) Brent (HS) Brent (Cracking) $/bbl Refining Margins Mediterranean 17.5 15.0 12.5 1 7.5 5.0 2.5-2.5-5.0-7.5 06 08 10 12 Es Sider (Cracking) Urals (Cracking) Es Sider (HS) Urals (HS) Despite peak maintenance European Refining margins exceptionally weak in September September European margins $9.95/bbl lower than year earlier on average. October $5.85/bbl lower than 2012 Scheduled shutdowns in September and October average 1.3-1.4 slightly above historical shutdowns Major oil companies site weak refinery profitability as key to drop in earnings in 3Q13
Weak Margins not Restricted to European Plants Simple refineries at worst level since 2008 $/bbl 2 17.5 15.0 12.5 1 7.5 5.0 2.5-2.5 06 Global Cracking Margins 07 08 09 NWE Brent Singapore Dubai 10 11 12 13 MED Urals USGC LLS/HLS $/bbl 7.5-7.5 06 07 08 09 NW Europe Urals Urals (HS) Global margins follow suit. Singapore simple margins firmly negative and US rates come off earlier highs Weak gasoline cracks continue to weigh on refinery complex, diesel margins robust but low compared with last year s levels. As refiners cut runs, and crude prices come off summer peaks, margins improve somewhat Refiners with access to discounted crude and cheap refinery fuel (natural gas) fare better 5.0 2.5-2.5-5.0 Simple Refining Margins 10 11 12 13 NW Europe Brent Singapore Dubai
Weak Margins not Restricted to European Plants Simple refineries at worst level since 2008 $/bbl 35.0 3 25.0 2 15.0 1 5.0-5.0 06 07 Global Cracking Margins 08 09 NWE Brent Singapore Dubai US MidCon WTI 10 11 12 13 MED Urals USGC LLS/HLS $/bbl 7.5-7.5 06 07 08 09 NW Europe Urals Urals (HS) Global margins follow suit. Singapore simple margins firmly negative and US rates come off earlier highs Weak gasoline cracks continue to weigh on refinery complex, diesel margins robust but low compared with last year s levels. As refiners cut runs, and crude prices come off summer peaks, margins improve somewhat Refiners with access to discounted crude and cheap refinery fuel (natural gas) fare better 5.0 2.5-2.5-5.0 Simple Refining Margins 10 11 12 13 NW Europe Brent Singapore Dubai
Regional Demand Slide Halted For Now? Yet, Refineries Curb Runs Sharply 16.0 15.5 OECD Europe Oil Demand 0.5 Annual Change in European Demand vs. Crude Runs 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-0.5-1.0 Demand Crude Runs -1.5 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 After plummeting 1.7 in from 2008 to 2012, regional demand declines are a forecast more modest 100 kb/d in 2013 and 2014. In particular, 3Q13 European demand posted annual growth (of 200 kb/d) for the first time since 4Q10
Europe Bounce Supports Short-Term Demand 52 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 16.5 OECD Europe: Total Oil Product Demand 50 Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold. Source: M arkit 15.5 14.5 48 13.5 46 44 Oct11 May12 Dec12 Jul13 12.5 Apr Jul Oct 5-year avg 2012 2013 The pace of the European demand decline has eased in recent months, from string of steep drops in recent years +1.4% y-o-y 3Q13, +0.1% 2Q13-2.4% 5-year average, 2008-2012 Economic outlook has improved European demand still seen in structural decline -- postrecessionary bounce likely brief -0.7% 2014, after -0.8% in 2013 (-3.8% 2012) Source: IEA Oil Market Report 7
Industrial Demand Picking Up? LPG imports from Russia and US on the rise OECD Europe: Diesel Demand 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 Apr Jul Oct 5-year avg 2012 2013 OECD Europe: LPG Demand 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Apr Jul Oct 5-year avg 2012 2013 Diesel demand goes above its historical range in July LPG demand from Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway post strong year-on-year growth so far in 2013. Imports this year (-Aug) from the FSU up 24% Imports from US up 300% so far this year, but from low base
European Industry Restructuring Continues MOL s Mantova Refinery in Italy, 16 th to shut or reduce capacity Europe shut 350 kb/d this year, for a total of 1.7 since 2008 In addition, lot of ownership changes, with Russian, Chinese, Indian players entering the market, as well as trading companies (Vitol, Gunvor)
Thousands Plant Closures in France, Germany, Italy and UK kb/d 600 OECD Europe Refinery Closures 0.8 Cumulative European Refinery Shutddowns 2.0 500 0.6 1.5 400 300 0.4 1.0 200 0.2 0.5 100 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 Czech Republic France Germany Italy UK 2008 2010 2012 2014 France Germany Italy UK Total (RHS) Refinery Closures to Date: France 585 kb/d Germany 400 kb/d UK 400 kb/d Italy 320 kb/d From 2007 to 2013, a total of 1.7 of capacity shut in total. Comparatively, demand fell by 1.9
Non-OECD Refinery Additions Become Reality More than 9 added by 2018? 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5-0.5-1.0 Crude Distillation Additions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 OECD China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Other Non-OECD Net Additions Other Asia 18% Regional Share of CDU Expansions 2012-2018 OECD Capacity contracts by 0.2 Middle East 24% Latin America 6% Other Non- OECD 4% FSU 8% China 40% While OECD refinery capacity has been rationalised, non- OECD expansions continue at rapid pace. A net 9.3 of new distillation capacity is expected in the 2013-2018 period Non-OECD Asia, Middle East account for 80% of net gain Overall OECD capacity contracts by 0.2, but North America expands on new liquids supply and cheap energy costs
Net Refinery Additions Match Demand growth in 2013 and 2014 Crude Distillation Additions 2.0 1.0-1.0 2012 2013 2014 OECD China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Other Non-OECD Net Additions 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.2-0.4-0.6 Crude Distillation Additions 2013 2014 Non-OECD add 1.4 and 1.7 of net new distillation capacity in 2013 and 2014 China, Middle East, India account for most of new capacity As OECD close plants, net additions amount to 1.1 for both 2013 and 2014, largely matching expected global demand growth.
Globally, Surplus Refining Capacity Still Exist 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Refinery Additions vs. Demand Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Capacity Additions Demand Growth kb/d OECD Refinery Closures 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 North America Europe Pacific Aruba Despite OECD refinery closures, surplus distillation capacity exist 3.8 of OECD capacity already shut since 2008 (including Valero s 235 kb/d Aruba refinery) Another 670 kb/d scheduled for 2014, mostly in Japan Additions exceed projected demand growth to 2018 Furthermore, biofuels, NGLs etc. meet larger share of demand
Non-OECD Continues to Drive Growth 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5-0.5-1.0-1.5 Global Crude Throughputs Annual Change 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 Americas Europe Asia Oceania China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Other OECD vs. Non-OECD Crude Runs 42.0 4 38.0 36.0 34.0 32.0 3 28.0 1Q2004 1Q2006 1Q2008 1Q2010 1Q2012 OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD refinery runs up 1.6 y-o-y in 3Q13, and 1.0 in 4Q13 Non-OECD Asia is largest contributor to growth, led by China Russia, Brazil also at record levels through summer Middle East saw the start-up of 400 kb/d Jubail refinery in Saudi Arabia in September, expected to reach full capacity before year-end China to add new capacity by year-end, India early next year (Pengzhou 200 kb/d, Quanzhou 240 kb/d, Paradeep 300 kb/d
US Refinery Renaissance 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 US Weekly Refinery Throughput Source: EIA 13.5 Mar May Jul Sep Nov 5-yr Average 2012 2013 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.2 OECD Crude Throughputs Annual Change 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD US refiners processed 725 kb/d more crude in September this year, compared with last So, far this year (including October), US crude intake has increased 240 kb/d year-on-year Reports are that the high crude runs resulted in record shipments of distillate to Europe Surging domestic liquids supply and better refinery profitability lead to increased downstream investment 500 kb/d of new capacity likely by 2018
European Net Distillate Imports On Declining Trend But increasing volumes coming from US, Russia, India, and Saudi? OECD Europe Net Distillate Imports 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-05 -07-09 -11-13 kb/d OECD Europe Net Distillate Imports 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-05 -07-09 -11-13 US Russia India Year-to-date, European Net Distillate imports have averaged 700 kb/d in 2013 (through August), compared with 830 kb/d in 2012 and 1.1 in 2009. Russia remains main supplier, providing 430 kb/d so far in 2013 Increasing volumes coming from US (190 kb/d) and India (140 kb/d), with US surpassing Russia as key European supplier sporadically
Europe Still Minor Market for US Distillates And US gasoline imports from Europe Eroding kb/d 1600 US Middle Distillate Exports 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-05 -07-09 -11-13 OECD Europe Total kb/d US Net Gasoline Imports 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -05-07 -09-11 -13 OECD Europe Total Europe represent less than a quarter of total US distillate exports, but share rising US imports of gasoline stabilised at around 300 kb/d? US net exporter of gasoline in certain months
Russian Proposed Tax Changes Russia is expected to approve changes to its product export duties by the end of 2013. Incentivizes refinery modernisation and product exports. Fuel oil duty will be raised from 66% of crude oil to 75% and 100% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Clean product duties will be reduced from 66% to 65%, 63% and 61% in in 2014, 2015, and 1016 respectively. Gasoline duties will remain at 90% The incentive for modernisation grows, and simple refineries no longer viable Closures of simple plants likely, and unprecedentedly big reward for refiners that modernize Less fuel oil supply and exports, more diesel
Thank you toril.bosoni@iea.org