Clean Fuels for Asia Bert Fabian Transport Unit Head, Cebu, Philippines Jan 2008 Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia Program
Urban Air Quality Levels in Asia Air quality in Asia is improving but still far above WHO limits PM is main pollutant of concern WHO (1979) TSP guideline, 60-90μg/m 3 WHO (2005) SO 2 24-hour guideline, 20μg/m 3 WHO NO 2 guideline, 40μg/m 3 WHO (2005) PM10 guideline, 20μg/m 3 300 250 200 150 100 50 Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, μg/m 3 (1993 to 2005) TSP PM10 SO2 NO2 Linear (TSP) Linear (PM10) Linear (SO2) Linear (NO2) Source: CAI-Asia, 2007 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Economic Growth and Air Pollution Trend: Asia Electricity Generation, 129% Energy Consumption, 79% GDP (constant 1990), 65% GDP per cap, 45% Urban population share, 25% I N C R E A S E NO 2, - 14% PM 10, - 20% TSP, - 25% SO 2, - 32% DECREAS E Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007 - http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview UN DESA - http://esa.un.org/unpp
Vehicle Growth Forecast in Asian Countries (in Millions of Vehicles) 500 400 PR China 500 400 India 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 100 80 60 40 20 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Thailand 100 80 60 40 20 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Indonesia 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Note: Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y Ltd
Vehicle Emission Standards in Asia (new light-duty vehicles) Notes: Italics under discussion; a gasoline; b Diesel; c Entire country; d Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hydrabad, Agra, Surat, Pune, Kanpur, Ahmedabad, Sholapur, Lucknow; Other cities in India are in Euro 2; e Beijing and Guangzhou (as of 01 September 2006) have adopted Euro 3 standards; Shanghai has requested the approval of the State Council for implementation of Euro 3; f Euro 4 for gasoline vehicles and California ULEV standards for diesel vehicles; g As per government regulation 1295-11 from Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources http://www.cea.lk/acts/reg1295-11.pdf; h Gasoline vehicles under consideration Source: CAI-Asia. 2008, January. Emission standards for new vehicles (light duty). Available: http:///1412/articles-58969_new.pdf
Fuel Quality Standards in Asia (levels of sulfur in diesel) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bangladesh 5000 Cambodia 2000 1500 Hong Kong, China 500 50 10 a India (nationwide) 5000 2500 500 350 India (metros) 5000 2500 500 350 a 50 a Indonesia 5000 2000 350 Japan b 500 50 10 Malaysia 5000 3000 500 c 500 d 50a Pakistan 10000 7000 c Philippines 5000 2000 500 50 PRC (nationwide) 5000 2000 500 e 50 a PRC - Beijing 5000 2000 500 350 50 a Republic of Korea 500 430 100 30 15(10) f Singapore 3000 500 50 Sri Lanka 10000 5000 d 500 Taipei,China 3000 500 350 100 50 Thailand 2500 500 350 150 50 Viet Nam 10000 500 European Union 500 50(10) f 10 United States 500 15 Source: CAI-Asia, 2007 Dec > 500 ppm 51 500 ppm < 50 ppm
Integrated Approach Fuels and vehicles are part of an overall, wider, air quality context AQM efforts will usually also include activities aimed at reducing emissions from stationary sources and area sources Emission reduction from mobile sources will also have to include I/M and transport demand oriented measures The absence of detailed emission inventories and source apportionment studies should not prevent Asian countries from developing cleaner fuel roadmaps Fuels and vehicles are an integrated system
Fuel Specifications (1) Fuel quality does not only influence emissions but also drivability, engine wear and fuel efficiency Supportive research for fuel specifications has been well established and generally there is no need for Asian countries to replicate such research Asian countries should implement all fuel parameters as defined in fuel specifications linked to European emission specifications Asian countries with warm climate can apply variation in RVP In some cases the adoption of a comprehensive set of fuel properties will delay the introduction of cleaner fuels substantially. In such cases the option to reduce sulfur first may be considered
Fuel Specifications (2) Leapfrog from Euro 2 to Euro 4 emission standards makes good technical and financial sense Some Asian countries where air pollution from transport is severe should consider Euro 5 standards Asian countries with large domestic refining capacity can consider applying US flexibility principle. Importing countries should not do so. Fuel quality monitoring is essential, especially where different fuel standards exist in the same country
Octane Enhancing Additives (1) Use of oxygenates or additives, like MTBE, ETBE, TAME, Ethanol, MMT, Ferrocene, etc. to enhance octane in gasoline has become relevant after the phase out of leaded gasoline in Asian countries Concerns have been raised on the health and/or environmental impacts of especially MMT, Ferrocene and other ash-forming metal based additives The preferred long-term solution is to update and enhance refinery capacity without the need to use metallic or oxygenate octane enhancing additives
Octane Enhancing Additives (2) In the short term, if octane enhancement is needed prior to such investments: Use of MTBE, ETBE and TAME should be limited to maximum allowable concentrations to 2.7% (mass O 2 ) and respectively 15%, 17.1% and 16.6% by volume Ethanol blending should be limited to 10% by volume and 3.7% by mass Use of MMT and Ferrocene should be discouraged because of potential health concerns and potential impacts on vehicle emissions and emissions systems components If Asian countries do decide to authorize the use of MMT, ferrocene, or other ash forming metal based additives to raise octane, they should make this decision on a refinery-byrefinery permit basis, with a clear time table for phase out
Timing of Introduction of Cleaner Fuels Technology for fuel improvement is well established and can be applied in Asia on a no-risk basis Euro 4 Vehicle technology well established in Asia Maximum lead time to move to Euro 4 or stricter is 4-6 years but in many cases can be shorter Import of Euro 4 fuels can be considered pending the construction or modification of refineries to shorten the lead time for introduction of cleaner standards Refinery expansion in Asia should be based on Euro 4 or stricter standards
Cleaner Fuels and In-use Vehicles Main driver for cleaner fuels are new vehicles, there is an impact on in-use vehicles as well but more research required on the impact of cleaner fuels on in-use vehicles Cleaner fuels, especially with less than 50 ppm sulfur allow for retrofit of gross polluting diesel vehicles: Technology is established now and pilot projects have demonstrated impact Current cost levels justify focus on retrofit of high use fleet vehicles Alternative approach of dealing with gross polluting vehicles remains phase out.
Introduction Scenarios Uniform introduction across country: Advantages in terms of AQ impact provided specifications are strict enough High short term costs to refining sector Avoids misfueling Flexibility provision for special markets (off-road and stationary) Prioritized introduction in selected cities: Can be considered for large countries, e.g. India and China Requires availability segregated fuel marketing and distribution system Price differential whereby cleaner fuel should be cheaper Fuel quality monitoring important to ensure misfueling Harmonized standards across Asia: Security of availability of cleaner fuels Reduction in complexity for the vehicle industry
Facilitation of Introduction of Cleaner Fuels Fuel quality regulations, combined with emission standards should be the backbone of any policy or strategy on cleaner fuels Government policy to accelerate production or uptake of cleaner fuels Public outreach and consensus building Combination of tax and pricing policies Temporary incentives can be used to speed up acceleration of market uptake of cleaner fuels Cost for producing cleaner fuels needs to be passed on to consumer Controlled pricing, still prevalent in some Asian markets precludes the opportunity to pass on costs Increasing Asian markets are being deregulated opening up the possibility to pass on costs
For more information, please contact Cornie Huizenga, Executive Director cornie.huizenga@cai-asia.org Bert Fabian, Transport Unit Head bert.fabian@cai-asia.org Au Ables, Transport Specialist au.ables@cai-asia.org Unit 3510, 35 th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower, ADB Avenue, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines