Lives Saved through Vehicle Design: Regulation, Consumer Information and the Future Transport Research Board January 8, 2018 Adrian Lund iihs.org
Crashworthiness in 1959 and 2009
Actual vs. potential car/ltv occupant fatalities Lives saved model, 1960 2012; Kahane, Report No. DOT HS 812 069 lives saved = 613,501
Vehicle and non-vehicle factors and highway safety Passenger vehicle driver deaths per million vehicles, actual vs. expected for 1985 fleet 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Actual rates Expected rates 40 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Calendar year
Joan Claybrook, NHTSA Administrator, with Phil Donahue October 17, 1979
New car assessment programs By year of inception
IIHS testing programs GOOD First test year 7.1% 2017 96.7% Side impact 2003 GOOD First test year 40.2% 2017 97% Roof strength 2009 1995 Front moderate overlap GOOD First test year 16.2% 2017 100% 2004 Rear (whiplash mitigation) GOOD First test year 6.2% 2017 98.2% 2012 Front small overlap GOOD First test year 11.5% 2017 65.6%
New technology promises to avoid crashes altogether
Cars that sense what s around them are enabling new crash prevention systems Ultrasonic sensors 15 ft range Short-range radar 100 ft range 80º opening angle Mono/stereo cameras 325 ft range, 45º opening angle Mid-range radar 260 ft range, 16º opening angle LIDAR 45 ft range, 27º opening angle Mid-range radar 200 ft range, 60º opening angle Infrared 525 ft range 20º opening angle Long-range radar 650 ft range, 18-20º opening angle Velodyne LIDAR used by Google Self-Driving Car 325 ft range with 360º rotation
Real world reductions in relevant police-reported crashes Percent change in relevant crash type for various vehicle technologies 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% all severities injury -50% -60% forward collision warning low-speed autobrake fcw with autobrake lane departure warning side-view assist (blind spot)
99+% of U.S. market 20 automakers have committed to make AEB a standard feature by September 2022
Other crash avoidance technology Front crash prevention systems that recognize pedestrians, cyclists, animals Rear low-speed autobrake Front and rear cross traffic alert (with and without autobrake) Front crash prevention systems that assist with left turns across traffic Automated driving Levels 1-3 Automated driving Levels 4-5
Established October 2016 450 members
9/10 crashes caused by human error does not mean 9/10 crashes prevented by tech
Level 2 automated driving experience issues
Lost lane lines On-road testing of Tesla Autopilot 7.1 (hardware version 1)
Stopped lead vehicle On-road testing 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class
How fast can new technology help?
New vehicle series with forward collision warning By model year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 standard optional not available
Registered vehicles with forward collision warning By calendar year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 standard optional not available equipped
Predicted counts of registered vehicles equipped with front crash prevention With 2022 voluntary commitment 100% 80% 80% in 2034 60% 40% 50% in 2027 20% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Headwinds on the Road to Zero The economy
U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950 2016 60,000 80 Motor vehicle crash deaths have declined significantly in the U.S. during the past 50+ years. 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Motor vehicle crash deaths 70 60 50 40 30 35,000 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 20 2016 10 37,461 deaths 11.8 per billion 30,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate 1950 2015 60,000 20% 55,000 50,000 Motor vehicle crash deaths 15% 45,000 10% 40,000 35,000 Unemployment rate 2015 5% rate 35,092 deaths 30,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 0%
Change in U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles traveled and unemployment rate 1950 2015 20% 15% 80% 10% 5% Unemployment rate 40% 0% -5% 0% -10% -15% -20% Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-40% -80%
Motor vehicle crash deaths, 1990-2015 With projections for 2016-24 45,000 40,000 motor vehicle crash deaths if unemployment remains steady at 4.9 if unemployment declines by 1.7% each year if unemployment declines by 8.0% each year 35,000 30,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Headwinds on the Road to Zero Rising speed limits
Maximum speed limits December 2017 WA OR CA NV ID MT UT AZ WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MS MI IN OH KY TN AL GA PA WV VA NC SC ME VT NY NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC 55 mph (DC only) 60 mph HI AK FL 65 mph 70 mph 75 mph 80 mph 85 mph
Deaths and expected deaths if maximum speed limits had not increased 1993 2013 44,000 deaths 40,000 33,000 deaths expected 36,000 32,000 1,900 deaths 28,000 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Legalizing recreational use of marijuana Another headwind?
Collision claims after legalization of recreational marijuana use Combined analysis of Colorado, Oregon, and Washington HLDI 2017 study states additional control states Colorado, Washington, Oregon Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming calendar years January 2012-October 2016 exposure 49,225,462 vehicle years for vehicles up to 33 years of age total number claims 2,494,668 outcome measure result changes in collision claims per insured vehicle year 2.7% increase in collision claims (statistically significant)
Two U.S. studies differ over effects of marijuana on drivers U.S. News & World Report, June 22, 2017 Studies offer conflicting conclusions on marijuana legalization s role in car crashes, fatalities The Cannabist, June 23, 2017 After-legalization traffic studies draw conflicting conclusions Ganjapreneur, June 26, 2017 Studies differ over impact of legalized pot on highway crash numbers Portland Press Herald, June 26, 2017 The jury is still out on legalizing marijuana impacting road collision rates Auto Evolution, June 28, 2017 Two studies about driving and marijuana have very different results Emerald Report, June 29, 2017 Competing studies leave haze of uncertainty connecting marijuana to traffic accidents Colorado Politics, July 3, 2017
Crash deaths after legalization of recreational marijuana use Colorado and Washington Aydelotte et al. 2017, AJPH study states Colorado and Washington control states Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin calendar years January 2009-December 2015 outcome measure result changes in annual motor vehicle crash fatality rates per billion miles traveled 2.7% increase in fatalities (not statistically significant)
Conclusion Vehicle design changes have played a major role in reducing crash and injury risk New tech promises that vehicle design will continue to drive progress toward Vision Zero It will take time decades for these promises to be realized Other factors are raising the bar to Vision Zero Trading improved safety for faster transportation Factors such as population growth, warmer weather, and the economy have independent effects on absolute counts of deaths Ignoring behavioral and roadway factors involved in motor vehicle crashes means additional deaths and injuries that we know how to prevent
More information and links to our YouTube channel, Twitter feed and Facebook page at iihs.org iihs.org