Update from U.S. - Shale 2.0 Chris Faulkner CEO, Breitling Oil and Gas Shale Gas World Europe 2013 Warsaw, Poland
Unconventional Gas Play Rankings Remaining Recoverable Gas Resources (Tcf) Marcellus Haynesville Eagle Ford Montney Barnett Fayetteville Bossier Woodford Horn River Granite Wash Antrim Utica (US) Permian Delaware Niobrara Permian Midland Mississippi Lime Bakken (US) Anadarko tight New Albany Cardium Dry gas NGL 0 50 100 150 200 250
Unconventional Oil Play Rankings Bakken (U.S.) Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara Utica (U.S.) Anadarko tight Mississippi Lime Cardium Bakken (Canada) Tuscaloosa Granite Wash Woodford Monterey Alberta Bakken Montney Marcellus Barnett Utica (Canada) Recoverable Oil Resources (billion barrels) 0 6 8 18 20 2 4 Developing 10 12 14 16 Contingent+Prospective
Marcellus Resource
bcfed Marcellus Production Forecast 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2010 2014 2018 Other(s) Ultra Petroleum Antero Resources Shell Anadarko Southwestern Energy ExxonMobil Talisman Energy National Fuel Gas Noble Energy CONSOL Energy Statoil Cabot Oil and Gas EQT Corporation Range Resources Chesapeake
Marcellus Economic Analysis Case Name Cabot Oil and Gas (Susquehanna County, PA) Chesapeake (North Pennsylvania) Consol Energy/Noble Energy (Joint Venture - Wet Gas) Range Resources (NE Pennsylvania) Breitling Oil and Gas (Super rich area) Talisman Energy (Pennsylvania) Type Well Well 30-day IP EUR Spacing CAPEX NPV (mmcfe/d) (bcfe) (acres) ($mm) ($mm) 11.19 10.56 80 6.5 3.19 6.06 5.56 90 6.0 0.84 4.00 5.56 80 6.5 1.52 6.15 6.28 80 4.5 1.52 3.96 5.12 80 4.7 4.25 4.05 4.61 80 5.0 0.10 Breakeven gas price ($/mcfe) 2.99 3.56 3.26 3.20 2.24 3.93
Bakken/Three Forks Resource (U.S.)
thousand boed 1,400 Bakken Production Forecast 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Unawarded Acres* ExxonMobil Marathon Oil Kodiak Oil and Gas Northern Oil & Gas Continental Resources Statoil ConocoPhillips Breitling Oil and Gas Oasis Petroleum Hess Whiting Petroleum EOG Resources Apache Other(s)
Bakken Economic Analysis Case Name 30-day IP (boe/d) 30 Year - EUR (Mboe) Well Spacing (acres) CAPEX ($mm) Type Well Break even oil NPV ($mm) price ($/boe) ConocoPhillips (Core Area) Continental Resources (Nesson Anticline Area) EOG Resources (Core Area) ExxonMobil (Nesson Anticline) Hess (East Nesson) Marathon Oil (Ajax and Hector Area) Marathon Oil (Diomedes Area) Marathon Oil (Myrmidon and Aeneas) Oasis Petroleum (East Nesson) Breitling Oil and Gas (West Williston) Statoil (Rough Rider Area) Whiting Petroleum (Lewis and Clark Area) Breitling Oil and Gas (Sanish and Parshall Area) 660 1052 808 516 993 491 411 682 635 597 903 418 575 431 593 601 344 551 501 463 550 437 373 435 394 667 160 160 320 140 160 320-420 640 320-420 320 320 160 640 213 8.5 9.0 8.0 5.0 9.5 8.6 8.2 9.0 8.7 10.3 8.9 7.0 6.0 4.26 6.92 8.14 4.13 5.92 5.40 4.14 5.99 3.98 1.78 3.77 3.93 9.75 54.16 45.07 40.69 43.68 50.03 49.61 53.70 48.36 55.80 72.38 57.69 51.77 42.11
Permian Resource
thousand boed 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Permian Production Forecast 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Chevron Pioneer Natural Resources Laredo Petroleum Energen EP Energy Concho Resources Apache ConocoPhillips Shell BHP Billiton Devon Energy Oxy Cimarex Energy Anadarko EOG Resources
Permian Economic Analysis Case Name Cimarex (Bone Spring/Northern Delaware) Concho Resources (Avalon Shale/Delaware Basin) Concho Resources (Bone Spring/Northern Delaware) Devon Energy (Bone Spring) EOG Resources (Leonard Shale/Bone Spring Sands) OXY (Bone Spring/Avalon) Approach Resources (Wolffork) Concho Resources (Wolfberry) Devon Energy (Wolfberry) EOG Resources (Wolfcamp Shale) EP Energy (Wolfcamp) Laredo Petroleum (Wolfberry) Breitling Oil and Gas (Wolfberry) Breitling Oil and Gas (Wolfcamp horizontal) 30-day IP (boe/d) 618 486 622 545 559 556 151 113 150 540 490 143 114 567 EUR (Mboe) 551 410 515 531 446 469 110 140 171 420 444 138 141 511 Well Spacing (acres) 160 80 80 80 160 80 20 20-40 20-40 160 90 40 40 140 CAPEX ($mm) 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.6 6.0 6.5 1.2 1.8 2.5 5.5 8.2 2.2 1.6 7.0 Type Well NPV ($mm) 6.82 1.17 4.14 8.18 2.16 4.47 1.33 1.07 1.27 1.76 3.22 0.76 1.35 5.37 Breakevenoil price ($/boe) 41.35 69.69 43.47 33.42 59.53 48.06 38.43 50.83 53.85 62.12 58.84 61.10 44.06 46.35
Eagle Ford Resource
Eagle Ford Economics Case Name BHP Billiton (Black Hawk) Anadarko/KNOC (Joint Venture) Chesapeake EOG Resources (Oil, Eastern Province) EOG Resources (Oil, Western Province) Talisman/Statoil (Joint Venture, Liquids Rich Area) Breitling Oil (Oil Rich Area) Marathon Oil (Volatile Oil) Pioneer Natural Resources (Joint venture with Reliance) 30-day IP EUR (boe/d) (Mboe) 1973.21 1066.8 533.51 450.3 631.58 543.9 996.15 506.3 662.67 492.2 1166.50 662.2 1403.66 605.9 651.45 643.0 1966.97 1000.0 Type Well Well Breakeven Breakeven Spacing CAPEX NPV gas price oil price (acres) ($mm) ($mm) ($/mcfe) ($/boe) 90-100 9.9 10.50 2.00 38.25 80 5.8 2.13 2.80 58.63 80 7.5 3.94 2.50 53.09 90 6.5 6.12 1.90 41.36 90 6.5 5.31 2.00 44.49 90 9.0 1.75 3.30 68.13 80 7.0 5.81 2.10 43.47 160 8.0 5.98 2.10 46.00 140 8.0 9.87 1.90 33.34
Thousands Bbl/d Crude Oil & Condensate Production Forecast 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Other plays Utica Cardium Anadarko & Panhandle Plays Mississippi Lime Niobrara Permian Basin Tight Oil Eagle Ford Bakken 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
U.S gas price stability - As supply grows, price remains low, stable Lower 48 gas supply has grown by 20 Bcfd since 2000, up 50% Driven by shale and infrastructure development post 2005 Result: lower, more stable pricing leading to a manufacturing renaissance Hurricanes Katrina & Rita Strong global economy Price run-up with crude oil Cold weather
U.S. Shale Gas/Oil 2013 pad drilling developments (Dense Population) Breitling King George Field (Barnett Combo)
Average decline curves from the major U.S. fields million cubic feet per year 1 Adam Sieminski, FLAME March 13, 2013 19
Update: U.S. Shale Gas/Oil Longer, Targeted Laterals.
Closing Comments Shale gas 2.0 revolution in U.S. Shale gas is a game changer: U.S. no longer destined to be gas importer. Will be exporting within 3 years Large coal to gas shift largest reduction in CO2 emissions in the world. New U.S. Carbon Bill Low gas prices stimulus for particular industrial industries Will this be sustainable and make U.S. more competitive? Impact on world gas supply demand/competition balance via LNG Transportation fuel? If so, when? Meanwhile the EU evolution 2.0? There is shale gas potential, but commercial viability to be proven Current coal-to-gas price ratio harms gas power plants Calls for lenient position towards shale gas to support industry Diverse viewpoints country to country - politically driven Community backlash/early mover environmental movement Will shale gas be a game changer here. If so, when?
Challenges for Europe: U.S. 2008?
Thank you. Q/A Chris Faulkner CEO, Breitling Oil and Gas Shale Gas World Europe 2013 Warsaw, Poland