RAeS Lecture, London 26 th May 2016 Future Large Civil Propulsion The Need for Speed? Phil Curnock Chief Engineer Civil Large Future Programmes 2016 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. Trusted to deliver excellence
Which predictions for 2050 will come true?
% Reduction relative to Comet base 20 th Century Jet Fuel Burn Improvements 3 100 90 80 Engine Fuel Consumption -40% 70 60 50 40 Aircraft Fuel Burn per Seat -30% 30 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Entry into Service Year
Improving specific fuel consumption Driving for higher efficiency 0.4 0.700 Thermal Cycle Efficiency 0.450 0.750 0.800 Propulsive Efficiency 0.550 0.500 Technology Improvements giving >20% SFC 0.850 0.900 0.950 1.000 High 0.600 temperature, high pressure, smaller cores. Enabled by: 0.650 High efficiency components High temperature materials and advanced cooling Approaching Theoretical CMCs, Limit for conventional gas turbines Low NOx combustion Near Stoichiometric TET, Ultimate Component More novel Efficiencies configurations Cooled cooling air Intercooling Larger lower pressure ratio, lower speed fans. Enabled by: High efficiency fan and LPT Lightweight LP systems Composite fan, TiAl Lightweight low drag nacelles More novel configurations Gear driven fans Variable pitch fans Open rotor Distributed propulsion
Driving for higher efficiency
Advance key technologies Lightweight CTi Fan System & ENABLES Low NOx combustor Advanced materials manufacturing & cooling (CMCs, TiAl) Adaptive controls & cooling system Advanced High Efficiency, High OPR Core 2015 Rolls-Royce plc
UltraFan TM technology portfolio Variable Pitch / Variable Area Nozzle Multi Stage high speed IP Turbine High Aspect Ratio TiAl / CMC IP Turbine Aerofoils Advanced lightweight IMC Low Speed CTi Fan system Next Gen High Strength Ni Alloy High power density gearbox Advanced Cooling and CMC aerofoils Fully Integrated slim-line nacelle Rolls-Royce proprietary plc information
Next generation Civil product evolution Trent XWB Advance UltraFan / Open Rotor World s most efficient engine Technology EIS Readiness Bypass Ratio Overall Pressure Ratio Efficiency relative to Trent 700 2020+ 2025+ 11+ 15+ 60+ 70+ 20%+ 25%+ Rolls-Royce proprietary Proprietary information Information 007638
The need for efficiency Sources: Mark Litwintschik, Wikipedia, NASA Affordable high volume air travel
% Reduction relative to Comet base Concorde The cost of speed? 12 +60% 100 90 80 Engine Fuel Consumption -40% 70 60 50 40 Aircraft Fuel Burn per Seat -30% 30 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Entry into Service Year So who is prepared to pay?
Billionaire population growth Number of billionaires 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 1500 Number of billionaires End 2015 =1810 Minimal impact of recession Source - Forbes 1000 500 0 Using a 6% pa growth rate.. >3200 Billionaires forecast by 2025
Breakdown of commercial travel by class % Seats % ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) Economy 92.7 88.6 Premium Economy 1.8 2.8 Business 4.1 7.1 1st Class 1.5 1.6 5-8% of travellers are prepared to pay a premium for enhanced.. Service / Comfort / Convenience
Supersonic Business Jets / Small Airliners 2 Alternative approaches: 1. Low sonic boom/supersonic overland design Supersonic overland flight requires regulation change 2. Supersonic over water/nonlow boom design Subsonic/low supersonic (M1.15) over land Source - Gulfstream Source - Aerion
More Speed or More Efficiency? Majority of market (95%) will demand efficiency and reduced operating costs Niche market (<5%) could exist for high speed travel at a price premium Propulsion technology development needs to support thermal and propulsive efficiency improvements A Need for Speed or a Want for Speed?