Advancements through Prizes William Pomerantz Director of Space Projects X PRIZE Foundation X PRIZE FoundationX PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting NIAC October Annual 17, Meeting 2006 October 17, 2006 1
OUTLINE Prize History ANSARI X PRIZE Wirefly X PRIZE Cup NG Lunar Lander Challenge Future Prizes X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 2
Orteig Prize Original ANSARI X PRIZE was largely inspired by the Orteig Prize, a $25K aviation prize offered in 1919 and won in 1927 by Charles Lindbergh About $280K in current dollars Charles Nungesser, René Fonck, Hubert Fauntleroy Julian, Francois Coli, and Lindbergh? X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 3
Orteig Prize 9 teams spent $400,000 (about $4.5 million today) or 16 times the prize value Within eight months of Lindbergh s flight the number of airplanes in the U.S. quadrupled, the number of pilots tripled the number of individuals buying airline tickets increased 30-fold, from 5,700 to nearly 180,000. Aviation today is a multi-trillion dollar industry and a vital component of the global economy X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 4
Longitude Prize Kremer Prize DARPA Grand Challenges $30M Super Efficient Refrigerator Prize 100,000-Franc Soda Alkali Prize Feynman nano-tech prizes working electric motor 1/64 inch written text at 1/25,000 scale Other Noteworthy Prizes X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 5
ANSARI X PRIZE $10M prize for Privately funded spacecraft 100km 3 people (or weight equivalent) Repeated flights 26 teams 7 countries $100M + spent X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 6
ANSARI X PRIZE Technological advances Regulatory reform Legitimization Hero Creation X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 7
Wirefly X PRIZE Cup X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 8
2005 Countdown to the Cup 10,000+ people Flights from XCOR, Armadillo Test Firing by Starchaser Static Displays, mock-ups, etc Dominated regulatory talk at the COMSTAC meetings Intense involvement from FAA Staff X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 9
2006 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup Friday-Saturday, October 20-21 Las Cruces International Airport, NM International Personal Spaceflight Symposium (Tuesday- Wednesday) Executive Summit (Thursday) Education Day on Friday X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 10
2006 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup Connect personally with the industry Meet engineers, entrepreneurs, leaders, investors, competitors, and customers See high powered rockets, static fires, fly-bys Talks by astronauts X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 11
Elevator Games Two NASA Centennial Challenges Offered by the Spaceward Foundation, hosted by the Wirefly X PRIZE Cup $200K Tether Competition $200K Beam Power Competition X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 12
Northrop Grumman LLC $2M in prizes provided by NASA Sponsored by Northrop Grumman Corp 4 registered teams this year Money left on the table this year will be available at next year s Cup X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 13
Prize Rules NGLLC Vertical Take-Off and Landing rocketry 25kg payload Two flights in 150 minutes including preparation time Level One 90 second flight times Level Two 180 second flight times Simulated Lunar Surface X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 14
Lunar Landings - NGLLC X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 15
Northrop Grumman LLC 50 45 Number of Interested Teams 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2/1/06 2/15/06 3/1/06 3/15/06 3/29/06 4/12/06 4/26/06 5/10/06 5/24/06 6/7/06 Date X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 16
Northrop Grumman LLC Designed to be a multi-year prize; this year s competition is the debut of the event Many potential competitors attending this year to observe, recruit partners Many regulatory hurdles cleared this year, lowering the barriers for next year Prize announcement: May 5, 2006 168 days between announcement and competition X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 17
NGLLC Teams: Acuity Aerospace development company based in Menlo Park, CA Producer of UAVs and other experimental aircraft First venture into rocketry X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 18
NGLLC Teams: Armadillo Original ANSARI X PRIZE team No paid employees Two day a week labor Build it, test it, fly it philosophy X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 19
NGLLC Teams: Masten 6 full time employees Moved from Mountainview, CA to Mojave, CA to better pursue this Challenge Also offering $99 CanSat program Working towards manned orbital vehicle X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 20
NGLLC Teams: Micro-Space Original ANSARI X PRIZE Competitor 4 employees Based out of Denver, CO Background in amateur rocketry Spartan designs X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 21
X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 22 NGLLC - Video
Archon X PRIZE for Genomics $10M prize Sequence 100 human genomes 10 days or less 1 error per 10,000 bases sequenced Cover at least 98% of the genome Recurring cost of $10,000 per genome X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 23
Archon X PRIZE for Genomics Support from both public and private teams from original Human Genome project Holds the key to truly preventative medicine Prize winning team will also sequence the Genome 100 Stephen Hawking, Burt Rutan, Larry Page, Anousheh Ansari, Paul Allen, Larry King X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 24
Future Prizes Where Next? We conquered the Kármán line Working on the Human Genome Working on fuel efficiency and climate change Turning our eyes back to space X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 25
Next Stop: the Moon? Suborbital market has already been jumpstarted; and orbital tourism already has a track record NASA has been charged with going back to the moon, and is beginning a strong program of lunar exploration Is the moon a good goal for the next X PRIZE? X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 26
Lunar X PRIZE : BlastOff! Entertainment and Mediadriven business model Missions sending multiple rovers to Apollo sites Lunar Olympics with competitions between different national teams Technology Demonstrations to create saleable legacy hardware X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 27
Lunar X PRIZE : BlastOff! Raised and spent over $15M from 2000-2002 Launch procured Mission cost estimates of $50M for 1 st and $20M for 2 nd Projected Revenues of $250M X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 28
LunaCorp Planned 440-pound (200- Kg) rover, with night-time operation Signed $1M sponsorship deal with RadioShack Partnership with Carnegie Mellon University Transorbital Planned orbiter, with follow-on landers Partnership with HP Lunar X PRIZE : Other Proofs X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 29
Lunar X PRIZE In Summer 2006, XPF conducted a study built around an industry survey of CEO level individuals from industry, academia, and government General consensus a the Lunar X Prize would be worth its cost as a PR tool alone, on top of any engineering, science, or industry building benefits Great interest and enthusiasm among potential competitors as well as potential financiers NASA could play a key role both by legitimizing teams and by demonstrating a with us, not against us attitude towards private enterprise X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 30
Lunar X PRIZE : Feasibility When asked about a Lunar X PRIZE with a total prize purse of $20M Feasibility without NASA launch support Feasibility with NASA launch support Mission 1 All respondents assumed feasible with or without NASA launch support Mission 2 70 % of respondent assumed such a mission is feasible without NASA launch support 90 % of respondent assumed such a mission is feasible with NASA launch support Mission 3 70 % of respondent assumed such a mission is feasible without NASA launch support 80% of respondent assumed such a mission is feasible with NASA launch support Mission 1: Simple lander, survives for ~2 weeks, no location specified Mission 2: Rover returning video of an Apollo landing site Mission 3: Targeted lander carrying payload to South Pole X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 31
Lunar X PRIZE : Teams & Time When asked about a Lunar X PRIZE with a total prize purse of $20M # of Serious USbased Teams, with no launch support Likely mission victory date, relative to announcement, without launch support # of Serious US-based Teams, with launch support Likely mission victory date, relative to announcement, with launch support Mission 1 5 (σ =2.3) 3 years (σ =1) 7 (σ =2.5) 3.4 years (σ =1.8) Mission 2 3 (σ =2.6) 4 years (σ = 1.7) 4 (σ =3.1) 3.7 years (σ =2) Mission 3 2 (σ =2) 3.7 years (σ = 1.2) 3 (σ =2.4) 4.5 years (σ =2.1) Mission 1: Simple lander, survives for ~2 weeks, no location specified Mission 2: Rover returning video of an Apollo landing site Mission 3: Targeted lander carrying payload to South Pole X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 32
FINDINGS: Follow-ons Involve other Mission Directorates and NASA Centers Potential follow-up and synergy with other Challenges MoonROx Lunar Regolith Extraction Lunar Night-time Power Human Lunar ATV Northrop Grumman LLC Lunar Orbiter Challenge Martian Robotic Landing Challenge Supplement prize with other programs? Traditional Procurements Reimbursable Space Act Agreements Involvement or Pole Position for Future Missions Directly support VSE (site scouting, equipment test) Encourage teams to pursue other business options simultaneously X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 33
Stair-cased approach RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 1 3 aforementioned mission profiles could be proposed in a series of low-cost programmatic missions to be realized in sequence over a decade for ~$50M Guarantee of Prizes 2 and 3 allows reduction of purse for Prizes 1 Prize 1: $10M for the first private Lunar Robotic Lander Prize 2: $20M for targeted Lunar rover Prize 3: $20M targeted Polar payload delivery X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 34
RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 2 A la carte approach: Initial $20 million prize is for payload delivery Specified amount of mass, volume, energy, bandwidth, and duration Possibly split into $15M 1 st place and $5M 2 nd place Mission Directorates and Centers offer pay-fordata or pay-for-services contracts to all comers X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 35
RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 2 Prizes Purchase of services $X 1 for Site Scouting $15M prize $X 2 for Comm / Nav Infrastructure $X 3 for Sample Return $X 4 for Tele-robotics $X 5 for Astronomy Data $5M prize $X 6 for Dust Level Detection Et cetera X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 36
RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 3 A stand-alone $20M prize could also work: A $20M prize purse without a clear science purpose Opt for a functionality approach - e.g. specified number of photos with a certain resolution, rather than a certain mass or system High value to the return of high quality photos of lunar surface, Earthrise, and full Earth Teams select landing location No surface mobility required X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 37
Government Prizes In October 2006, NASA Centennial Challenges moved within NASA, leaving the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate and joining the Innovative Partnerships Program National Defense Authorization Act of FY2007 expands DoD prize authority to Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDRE) and the Service Acquisition Executives (SAEs) H-Prize Legislation passed in the House Authority is there; funding is the problem! X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 38
Future Prizes Opportunities both for Challenges and X Prizes abound Challenges: 1-3 years, $100K - $5M, incremental changes X PRIZEs: 3-10 years, $10M+, revolutionary changes and breakthroughs Funding mechanisms needed Philanthropy Federal Industry Consortia PPP X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 39
Future Prizes Challenges Reusable rockets Non-toxic propellants Nano-sat launchers X PRIZEs Lunar Orbital Suborbital Point-to-point Breakthrough Propellants X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 40
X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting October 17, 2006 41 QUESTIONS?