1 The Potential Evolution of EVs to the Consumer Mainstream in Canada: A Geodemographic Segmentation Approach Presented by Mark R. Ferguson, PhD May 2017
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3 Partners
Social Costs and Benefits of Electric Mobility in Canada: Funded by SSHRC 4
According to McKinsey and Co. (2017) 5 Consumer demand is beginning its shift to favour electric vehicles Strong disruption potential Awareness, Familiarity, Consideration, Purchase Between 30% and 45% in U.S. and Germany are at the consideration phase We assess mainstream potential in Canada with a comprehensive 2015 survey of households Digging deeper than early adopter patterns
6 Sequence of the Survey Filtering and geographic (e.g. postal code) Environmental attitudes Inventory of household vehicles Vehicle purchase plan Rating of vehicle attributes Stated preference (education and scenarios) EV-oriented attitudinal questions Demographics and related
7 Vehicle Powertrain Options
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We developed a synthetic population of Canadian households Each of about 13.5 million Canadian households was matched with one nearby record from the survey (in distance and urban hierarchy terms) This was done in such a way that constraints (targets) associated with small census areas were maximally respected when contained hhld records added up Targets were related to demographics and vehicle registration totals by primary makes Individual survey records were used multiple times even in the same small census area Detailed mapping facilitated for all aspects of the survey including EV attitudes/behaviour 9
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National Latent Class Choice Model 12 A multivariate statistical model that helps us understand the predictors of choice of powertrain can segment households (put them into buckets) guided by demographics, location, attitudes of hhlds Different segments evaluate attributes (e.g. government incentives, electric range, vehicle maintenance costs) in different ways Each segment is a mindset (a bundle of evaluation tendencies) towards powertrains
Characterization of 4 Latent Mindsets 13
Mindset by Urban-Rural Index 14
15 Mindset by Age of Respondent
How much extra would I pay for a vehicle to gain an extra km of driving range? 16
How much extra would I pay for a vehicle to reduce its annual maintenance costs by $100? 17
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An Eight Segment Solution 29
30 Conclusions Considerable potential to examine any aspect of consumer survey at fine levels of geography Generally strong openness to plug-in vehicles; disruptive potential confirmed by results Awkwardness of home charging in dense urban contexts a definite theme but still favourable perceptions of BEVs PHEVs were seen as more palatable in mid-2015
31 FLEET RESEARCH
32 Canadian Fleet Registrations
33 Distribution of Sample by Sector
Organization Employees and Fleet Sites 34
35 Fleet Renewal Options
36 Typical Fleet Choice Scenario
Scenario Powertrain Shares Over 3 Distinct Surveys 37 Powertrain Corporate/Government Rental Consumer ICE 34% 33% 44% HEV 29% 25% 23% PHEV 26% 23% 22% BEV 11% 19% 11% 100% 100% 100%