Emerging international best practices to promote electric vehicles Nic Lutsey AVERE E-mobility Conference Amsterdam, Netherlands April 13, 2016
Global electric vehicle sales since 2009 Sales of electric vehicles through 2015 There were over 500,000 electric vehicle sales in 2015 The 1 millionth electric vehicle was sold in September 2015 Sales mostly in China, Europe, the U.S. (and concentrated in particular markets) Electric vehicle sales 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Rest of world US Japan Europe China 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2 Note: Only passenger vehicles shown
United States City-level analysis of EV policy, incentives, charging infrastructure
123.0% 118.0% 113.0% 108.0% 103.0% 98.0% 93.0% 88.0% 83.0% 78.0% 49.6% 44.6% 39.6% 34.6% 29.6% 24.6% 73.0% Electric vehicle (EV) activity across major US cities The top-25 metropolitan areas in 2014 in the US represent. 42% of the population, 46% of auto sales, 67% of EV sales 53% of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure Diverse mix of incentive, market factors, and percent EV uptake Seattle Portland Minneapolis Detroit Boston San Francisco Denver Chicago St Louis Pittsburgh New York Philadelphia Baltimore Washington Share of new vehicles 0.5% 1% 3% Los Angeles San Diego BEV PHEV Riverside Phoenix Dallas San Antonio Houston Atlanta Tampa Charlotte http://theicct.org/info-tools/us-city-electric-vehicle-profiles EV shares are new PHEVs and BEVs, as percent of light-duty vehicle registrations, in 2014 from IHS Automotive Miami 4
Analysis of US city EV uptake, charging, promotion activities Example: San Francisco area has had steady mix of consumer incentives, promotion actions, and charging infrastructure support and has 7x the US average EV uptake San Francisco Atlanta Los Angeles San Diego Seattle Portland Riverside Detroit Phoenix Washington Denver Tampa Miami Boston New York Baltimore Dallas Chicago Philadelphia St. Louis New electric vehicle share 0% 2% 4% 6% Battery electric vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Chargers per capita (per million population) 0 100 200 300 DC fast Level 2 Electric vehicle promotion actions 0 10 20 State City Infrastructure Utility Consumer incentive $0 $2,000 $4,000 Other Public charging HOV access State subsidy 5 http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities
Actions to promote EVs across US cities Electric vehicle promotion actions 25 20 15 10 5 0 San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego Riverside Washington Portland Charlotte New York Atlanta Chicago Boston Denver Seattle Houston St. Louis Baltimore Dallas Phoenix Philadelphia San Antonio Detroit Tampa Miami Minneapolis Pittsburgh Average 25 cities http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities Utility Preferential charging rate Home charger support Website, inform. materials Cost comparison tool Other utility outreach Infrastructure EV supply equipment financing City-owned EV chargers US DOE EV Project area Streamlined EVSE permit process PEV-ready building code Workplace charging City Vehicle purchase support Parking support Fleet purchasing Carpool lane (HOV) access Car sharing program link Electric vehicle strategy Website or inform. materials Outreach or education events State ZEV program BEV purchase subsidy PHEV purchase subsidy Fee exemption or exemption Home charger support Public charging support Parking benefit Fleet purchasing incentive Manufacturing incentives Low carbon fuel policy 6
Europe Region analysis of electric vehicle policy and uptake
Europe electric vehicle policy and deployment comparison Analysis of five European countries, two case study regions in each Tietge et al (2016). Comparison of leading electric vehicle policy and deployment in Europe. International Council on Clean Transportation (forthcoming) 8
EV incentives, charging availability, new vehicle share Charging points per 1,000 registered cars Charging points per 1,000 registered cars 5 4 3 2 1 Stuttgart (0.5%) Berlin (0.3%) Germany (0.4%) Netherlands (3.9%) Amsterdam (4.1%) Utrecht (5%) Glasgow (0.6%) Paris (1.1%) London (0.9%) UK (0.6%) France (0.7%) Poitou-Charentes (0.5%) Norway (13.7%) 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Oslo (20%) Bergen (20%) 20% 40% 60% Fiscal incentive for an EV as a percentage ofthe price (incl. taxes) of a comparable gasoline car Country DE FR NL NO UK EV new car share 1% 5% 10% 15% 20% Tietge et al (2016). Comparison of leading electric vehicle policy and deployment in Europe. International Council on Clean Transportation (forthcoming) 9
International Electric vehicle incentive design, collaboration
Effective EV incentive design Markets with highest EV sales and EV shares have generally adopted most of the principles for effective incentive design Electric vehicle uptake Incentive design principles Market Electric vehicle sales Electric vehicle share Substantial BEV Substantial PHEV Upfront Lease Company Private Durable Simple California X X / X X X X X Japan X X / X X X X / Norway X X X X X X X / Netherlands X X / X X / / / United Kingdom X X X X X / X X France / X X X X X / / Beijing X / X X X X / X Sweden / / / X X X / X Washington X X X X X X X / Denmark X X X X / X / / Notes: X denotes principle is generally met; / denotes principle partially met Source: Yang, et al (2016). Principles for effective electric vehicle incentive design. ICCT (forthcoming) 11
-50% 0% 50% EV uptake higher where incentives higher (generally) Findings on analysis of electric vehicle incentives Electric vehicle sales (circle size) and 2014 shares (vertical axis), and relative cost of electric vehicle as compared to conventional vehicles after incentives (horizontal axis) Financial incentives matter, but so do many other factors 14% 2014 Annual electric vehicle sales Norway 13% 5,000 10,000 50,000 Electric vehicle share of new vehicle sales Netherlands Denmark 4% Shanghai 3% 2% 1% California Washington Beijing Oregon Japan France Sweden Germany UK 0% -50% 0% 50% Electric vehicle cost compared to conventional vehicles (including retail price, incentives, taxes, fees) Notes: Electric vehicle sales and shares are 2014 new passenger vehicles Source: Yang, et al (2016). Principles for effective electric vehicle incentive design. ICCT (forthcoming) 12
Collaboration: International ZEV Alliance Collaborate on best-practice policies, action plans Set electric-drive vehicle target: All electric by 2050 To achieve climate stabilization goals To set clear signal for policy and investment Light-duty vehicle sales share 100% 80% Non electric-drive 60% Plug-in hybrid electric 40% Battery electric 20% Hydrogen fuel cell 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 - British Columbia - California - Connecticut - Germany - Maryland - Massachusetts - Netherlands - New York - Norway - Oregon - Québec - Rhode Island - United Kingdom - Vermont International ZEV Alliance: http://zevalliance.org COP21 announcement: http://zevalliance.org/content/cop21-2050-announcement Mitigation potential: http://zevalliance.org/content/global-ev-2050-ghg-mitigation-potential 13
Conclusions EV promotion actions are accelerating EV adoption United States: Incentives, charging, model availability, city non-monetary benefits Europe: Incentives, charging infrastructure, complementary local action, etc International: Incentives, and incentive design, matter Analysis confirms importance of ecosystem approach Public charging and consumer incentives work, but more diverse action needed Cities, states, utilities, automakers, consumers, local businesses all have roles International collaboration is also important Continued learning on best practice policies 14
ICCT resources Electric vehicle page: http://www.theicct.org/electric-vehicles US city/state electric vehicle incentive analysis http://theicct.org/info-tools/us-city-electric-vehicle-profiles (Dec 2015) http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities (July 2015) http://theicct.org/supporting-electric-vehicles-us-city-total-cost (October 2015) http://theicct.org/evaluation-state-level-us-electric-vehicle-incentives (Oct 2014) International electric vehicle sales and incentives http://theicct.org/global-ev-2050-ghg-mitigation-potential (Dec 2015) http://theicct.org/transition-global-zero-emission-vehicle-fleet-collaborative-agenda-governments (Sept 2015) http://theicct.org/driving-electrification-global-comparison-fiscal-policy-electric-vehicles (May 2014) International Zero Emission Vehicle Alliance http://zevalliance.org http://zevalliance.org/content/cop21-2050-announcement 15