North American Machine Vision Market Update Alex Shikany AIA Director of Market Analysis February 20-22, 2013 Orlando World Marriott Center Orlando, Florida USA
Table of Contents I. U.S. Economy II. Manufacturing Sector III. MV Market Performance 2012 IV. What to Expect in 2013 V. Summary and Conclusion
I. U.S. Economy Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Year-Over-Year Percent Change Annual Actuals: 2003-2011 2012 Quarterly Actuals 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% Great Recession 2.4% 1.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.0% 1.0% 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.1% 3.0% 4.0% The Economy Has Rebounded Since the Great Recession Albeit Weakly. So Far 2012 Has Posted Positive GDP Growth Despite a Slight Dip in Growth for 2Q 2012.
II. Manufacturing U.S. Purchasing Manager s Index (PMI) Expansion 65 60 55 50 Great Recession 2009 2010 2011 2012 Contraction 45 40 35 30 U.S. Manufacturing Expanded in Early 2012, Struggled Mid-Year, Then Made a Recovery Back to Modest Expansion by Year s End.
II. Manufacturing Index of U.S. Industrial Production (Quarterly Data 2001 to 2012, Manufacturing Only 2007 = 100) 105 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 100 95 90 85 80 75 Great Recession 70 Industrial Production Has Plateaued in 2012
II. Manufacturing Percent U.S. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization 85 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80 75 70 65 60 Great Recession Capacity Utilization continued its return to pre-recessionary levels in 1Q 2012, but then started slightly declining in 2Q and 3Q 2012.
II. Manufacturing NAICS Code Top Performing Industries in 2012 Industry Percent Capacity Utilization 1Q 2012 Percent Capacity Utilization 2Q 2012 Percent Capacity Utilization 3Q 2012 Index of Industrial Production 1Q 2012 Index of Industrial Production 2Q 2012 Index of Industrial Production 3Q 2012 31 33 Total Manufacturing (Average) 78.2 78.1 77.6 95.2 95.5 95.3 321 Wood Products 66.9 66.6 66.3 72.7 71.8 71.1 327 Nonmetallic Mineral Product 56.4 56.4 55.6 72.3 71.7 70.2 331 Primary Metal 77.0 75.1 73.4 102.4 99.8 97.3 332 Fabricated Metal Product 82.4 83.6 83.9 92.2 93.8 94.4 333 Machinery 84.9 86.1 83.1 100.9 103.1 100.3 334 Computer and Electronic Products 78.1 77.6 75.8 115.0 116.2 115.0 335 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Components 81.8 82.9 83.4 84.5 85.6 86.1 3361 3 Motor Vehicles and Parts 75.1 77.1 75.7 100.3 104.0 103.3 3364 9 Aerospace and Misc. Transportation Equip. 78.1 77.7 78.2 105.7 106.0 107.4 337 Furniture and Related Product 70.9 70.6 70.4 70.4 69.8 69.4 311 312 Food, Beverage, and Tobacco 79.7 79.4 80.1 99.8 99.8 101.0 313 314 Textiles and Products 69.9 69.6 69.4 77.8 76.9 76.4 315 316 Apparel and Leather Goods 71.2 69.9 67.5 62.7 61.2 58.8 322 Paper 81.8 81.1 80.1 85.3 84.1 82.4 323 Printing and Related Support Activities 65.5 65.4 64.9 74.9 74.9 74.4 324 Petroleum and Coal Products 86.3 84.8 84.3 102.1 99.8 98.3 325 Chemical 78.2 76.9 76.7 87.6 86.4 86.5 326 Plastics and Rubber Products 78.5 78.2 78.5 91.9 92.0 92.8 Other Manufacturing 65.4 63.8 62.8 72.4 70.1 68.6 * Source: U.S. Federal Reserve * Above 75.0 in Capacity Utilization and Above 95.0 in Industrial Production * Top 3 industries by Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production Computer & Electronic Products, Petroleum, and Machinery Were Hottest Manufacturing Industries in 2012 Based on Capacity Utilization and the Index of Industrial Production
II. Manufacturing Semiconductor Market Billings - Americas $5,500,000 $5,000,000 $4,500,000 4.7% $4,000,000 42.1% -6.5% $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000-37.6% -20.4% 2.3% 22.1% 22.1% 12.4% -5.4% 2.8% 12.4% 5.4% -8.5% -4.5% 2.8% 8.5% 4.5% 42.1% $2,000,000 20.4% 2.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BEA.gov The Semiconductor Market Experienced a Slowdown in 2012
II. Manufacturing U.S. Car Sales in Millions $ 6,000 5,000-1.7% 4,000-12.0% 2.9% -10.1% -6.2% 2.2% 1.1% 3,000 2,000-10.1% -3.8% -40.5% 26.4% 8.6% 40.1% 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BEA.gov U.S. Car Sales Improved Greatly in 2012
III. MV Market Performance - 2012 North America Actual 2012 Results by Quarter in Millions $ Markets 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter Millions $ YoY Growth Millions $ YoY Growth Millions $ YoY Growth Millions $ YoY Growth MV Components $61.21 16.65% $74.95 7.27% $71.19 6.42% $66.90 4.59% MV Systems $361.09 17.26% $423.45 4.61% $361.35 0.13% $376.92 6.09% Other MV $3.05 42.92% $3.18 63.20% $2.76 4.47% $2.89 27.63% Total MV Financial Transactions $425.35 16.92% $501.58 5.24% $435.30 1.08% $446.70 6.05% MV Components = Cameras + Optics + Lighting + Imaging Boards + Software MV Systems = Smart Cameras + ASMV Systems Other MV = All Other MV Transactions Including Resale Total MV Financial Transactions = MV Components + MV Systems + Other MV 2012 was a Down Year for Machine Vision Due to Manufacturing Woes, the Eurozone Crisis, and Uncertainty of The Fiscal Cliff.
III. MV Market Performance - 2012 North America Actual Results by Year in Millions $ Markets 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions $ YoY Growth Millions $ YoY Growth Millions $ YoY Growth Millions $ YoY Growth MV Components $143.70 27.80% $230.70 60.54% $280.32 21.51% $274.25 2.17% MV Systems $978.60 29.40% $1,562.50 59.67% $1,603.41 2.62% $1,522.81 5.03% Other MV N/A $5.00 $10.95 $11.87 8.34% Total MV Financial Transactions $1,122.30 29.20% $1,798.20 60.22% $1,894.69 5.37% $1,808.93 4.53% MV Components = Cameras + Optics + Lighting + Imaging Boards + Software MV Systems = Smart Cameras + ASMV Systems Other MV = All Other MV Transactions Including Resale Total MV Financial Transactions = MV Components + MV Systems + Other MV The Recovery Happened in 2010 and Continued Into 2011, but in 2012 Machine Vision Saw a Slight Decrease in Performance Caused by Manufacturing Woes Throughout the Year.
III. MV Market Performance - 2012 2001-2012 Actual MV Financial Transactions* in Millions (USD) $2,200.0 $2,000.0 $1,800.0 $1,600.0 MV Impact of 2001 Recession +1.2% +60.2% +5.4% 4.5% $1,400.0 $1,200.0 $1,000.0 14.8% 0.2% +12.6% +6.2% +4.6% +2.1% 29.2% MV Impact of Great Recession 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * Overall Sales Activity: Sum of Component and System Sales (Including Smart Cameras) In Contrast to 2010 and 2011, MV Sales in 2012 Contracted Mildly and Returned to the Trend-line.
IV. What to Expect in 2013 U.S. Economy Forecasted Annual Percentage Change in Real GDP U.S. Manufacturing Forecasted Annual Percentage Change in Factory Automation Manufacturing is expected to see a net increase in hiring, with the sector expected to add 163,000 jobs in 2013.
IV. What to Expect in 2013 2013 Forecast MV Financial Transactions* in Millions (USD) $2,200.0 $2,000.0 $1,800.0 $1,600.0 MV Impact of 2001 Recession +1.2% +60.2% +5.4% 4.5% +4.0% $1,400.0 $1,200.0 $1,000.0 14.8% 0.2% +12.6% +6.2% +4.6% +2.1% 29.2% MV Impact of Great Recession 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 * Overall Sales Activity: Sum of Component and System Sales (Including Smart Cameras) Machine Vision Sales Activity Rebounded Well After the Great Recession but Returned to The Historical Trend-line in 2012. With Manufacturing Returning to Health, Growth of 4.0% is Expected in 2013.
V. Summary and Conclusion 2012 started off strong but slowed mid-year amidst slowing manufacturing and the Eurozone Crisis Later in 2012, the economy began an uptick as the Eurozone Crisis cooled and the U.S. Presidential Election ended U.S. Manufacturing expanded in December, marking optimism for 2013 The Fiscal Cliff was resolved alleviating some uncertainty Economic forecasts are positive for 2013, and manufacturing is expected to expand again Sales of Machine Vision followed Manufacturing, posting negative growth for 2012 and returned to the trend-line Machine Vision financial transactions are expected to grow 4.0% in 2013
What s Coming For AIA Statistics
Contact Information Alex Shikany Director of Market Analysis 900 Victors Way, Suite 140 Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA Phone: (734) 994-6088 Email: ashikany@visiononline.org Twitter: @AlexShikany Web: www.visiononline.org