World Shipping (China) Summit 2006, Shenzhen 3 November 2006 The Evolution of the World Oil Tanker Industry and its Key Challenges Stephen Van Dyck Chairman, INTERTANKO
International Association of Independent Tanker Owners Represents: responsible oil and chemical tanker owners worldwide, promoting their interests and providing members with technical, operational, legal, documentary and other support services, information and advice Membership: 250 + members representing > 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet and > 85% of the chemical carrier fleet, with strict membership criteria 300 + associate members in oil and chemical tanker related businesses
Mission and Vision MISSION Provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world with the safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products. VISION for the TANKER INDUSTRY A responsible, sustainable and respected Tanker Industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future.
CRUDE OIL TRANSPORTATION
Seaborne Crude Oil Flows 2005
GDP Comparisons World Developing countries Major Advanced % growth GDP 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: IMF
25 20 15 10 5 0 Established Oil Demand million b/d 2019 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 USA W Europe Japan FSU South Korea Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: EIA
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Emerging Oil Demand million b/d 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 China India Other Asia Mid East Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: EIA
Oil Consumption Potential 3,500 3,000 per capita oil cons population 3,500 3,500 1400 1200 per capita oil cons (kg) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 573 925 1,468 2,098 2,185 1000 800 600 400 population (million) 500 120 245 200 0 India China Brazil Mexico OECD Europe Source: Braemar Seascope Japan S. Korea Canada USA 0
Refinery Expansions: 2006-10* China India Iran USA Kuwait Saudi Brazil Taiwan Ecuador Vietnam Iraq Yemen Qatar Oman Moroco Sudan Spain Canada Thailand 145 185250 136 100 121 58 7090 666 313 400 615 300 300 278 896 TOTAL 8,212 kbd 1,740 1,849 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Source: Braemar Seascope *excluding Russia
Crude Imports (m tonnes) 2003 2004 2005 2010 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 USA EU Japan Korea India China Source: Braemar Seascope
China Imports vs. Tanker Demand 250 200 m tonnes crude m dwt demand 25 20 m tonnes crude 150 100 50 15 10 5 m dwt demand 0 2003 2004 2005 2010 0 Source: Braemar Seascope
CHINA: Crude oil import sources ( 000 tonnes) 2002 2003 2004 2005 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Saudi Arabia Angola Iran Russia Oman Source: Braemar Seascope
TANKER FLEET PERFORMANCE
Development of Oil Spills Source: ITOPF. Number of spills above 700 tonnes.
Pollution from tankers Tonnes / billion tonne mile Tanker accidental pollution rate tonnes spilt per bn tonne miles trade 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1971-75 1975-80 1981-75 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 Source: ITOPF spills, Fearnleys: Tonne miles
Reported tanker incidents (1978 2005) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 78 7980 81 8283 84 8586 87 8889 War Hull & Machinery Fire/Explosion 90 9192 93 9495 96 9798 99 0001 02 0304 Grounding Collision/Contact Other 05
KEY CHALLENGES
Key Challenges Striving for high standards globally Balancing Regulation versus Self Regulation - encouraging Effective Regulation - developing and Promoting Self Regulation Global regulation for a global industry, adopted and implemented uniformly Meeting increasingly higher environmental standards - air emissions, ballast water discharges, oil-in water, antifoulings, more
Meeting (Society s) Expectations EXPECTATION that SHIPPING should be Safe and Secure Environmentally Responsible Reliable Efficient (low cost) ZERO TOLERANCE of Accidents Pollution (to Sea and Atmosphere) Other (e.g. unsafe, unhealthy ship demolition)
Maintaining International Governance of the Shipping Industry International vs. local, national and regional Liability EU Penal Sanctions vs. International Conventions Safety & Environment EU (Post Erika & Prestige) vs. IMO/Marpol & SOLAS Sulphur Levels / Air Emissions EU, USA vs. IMO Security MTSA vs. ISPS Ballast Water Management US et al vs. IMO
Perhaps the Biggest Challenge for All of the Shipping Industry Our ability to respond promptly and effectively to Rapidly changing expectations and requirements
The POSEIDON CHALLENGE
Commitment to Continuous Improvement Primary Goal Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry s performance in striving to achieve the goals of: Zero fatalities Zero pollution Zero detentions
EDUCATION TRAINING DESIGN BUILDERS EQUIIP SUP CLASS SHIPBREAKERS CARGO INCIDENT MGT FINANCIERS SALVORS MANAGERS REPAIRERS AGENTS CREW OWNER OPERATOR CARGO BROKERS LABOR P&i TUGS HULL INSR PILOTS BUNKERERS TERMINALS PORT FLAG STATE COASTAL STATE WATERWAYS STAKEHOLDERS AGENCIES GOV IMO STATES LOCAL GOV
The Poseidon Challenge
Poseidon Challenge: An invitation to - commit to continuous improvement - commit to working with all partners
谢谢大家 THANK YOU www.intertanko.com www.themaritimefoundation.com www.shippingfacts.com