Impact of Ethanol on Iowa s Transportation System Legislative Agriculture Chairs Summit VI St Louis, MO January 18-20, 2008 Craig O Riley, Office of Systems Planning 1
Discussion Topics Agricultural Trends Ethanol Trends Transportation Impacts 2
Agricultural Trends Farms Elevators Production Distribution & Transportation 3
Increasing Iowa Grain Production 3,000 2,500 Corn 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 4 Million Bushels Soybeans 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009e 2012e 2015e Source: Iowa Dept of Ag, ISU Year
Iowa Farmers Owning More Semis 1,000 Vehicles 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 241 233 174 26 18 12 14 15 13 6 12 16 Wagon Sgl-Axle Truck Tandem-Axle Truck Semi 1995 2000 2005 5
More Elevator Affiliations Elevators 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 652 665 512 1998 2004 2007 Year 6
Iowa s Grain Facilities 7
Iowa May Need only 2 or 3 Shuttle Train Loaders per County Train_Loaders 0 to 0.9 1 to 1.9 2 to 2.9 3 to 5 Assumes all corn production is moved by 110-car unit trains at 4,000 bushels per car with 24 turns per year. 8
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 More Iowa Grain is Moved by Truck 9 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1980 Year Grain Sales Rail Originations Million Tons
Iowa Ethanol Trends Production Facilities Distribution & Transportation 10
Iowa s Ethanol Production is on the Rise 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 11 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Million Gallons
Iowa Leads the Nation in Ethanol Production 1,800 1701.5 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 831.0 655.5 541.6 532.0 400 200 230.0 212.5 0 155.0 634.3 12 All Others Million Gallons Iowa Illinois Nebraska Minnesota South Dakota Wisconsin Kansas Missouri Source: RFA Jan 2007 State
Iowa Ethanol Facilities have Increased Dramatically Year Number of Plants Ethanol Capacity (million gallons) Corn Required (million bushels) 2002 Existing 9 506 190 Construction / Planning 9 335 124 Total 18 841 314 2007 Existing 29 1,972 730 Expansion (12) 639 237 New Construction 16 1,505 557 Planning 24 2,410 893 Total 69 6,526 2,417 13
Iowa s Ethanol Facilities 14
Corn Equivalence Livestock Feed 1 bushel = 2.7 gallons + 17 pounds Corn Ethanol Feed 15
Corn-Ethanol Process Output by Weight Carbon Dioxide, Other 37% Ethanol 32% Distillers Grain 31% 16
Transportation Equivalence 1 semi truck = 900 bushels of corn = 8,000 gallons of ethanol = 25 tons of feed 1 rail car = 4,000 bushels of corn = 30,000 gallons of ethanol = 100 tons of feed Corn Ethanol Feed 1 rail car = 4.4 semi trucks 1 rail car = 3.75 semi trucks 1 rail car = 4 semi trucks 17
Grain Flows before Ethanol Farm 1,000 Acres 180,000 Bushels 200 semi trucks Elevator 200 semi trucks or 45 rail cars 18
Grain Flows after Ethanol Farm 1,000 Acres 180,000 Bushels 200 semi trucks Ethanol Plant 120 semi trucks Elevator 80 semi trucks 80 semi trucks 122 semi trucks or 32 rail cars 19
Inbound Requirements for Ethanol 100 Million Gallon For Existing Plants For Existing & Planned Sites Corn (bu) 37.0 million Acres Harvested 730 million 2,417 million 205,800 4.1 million 13.4 million Semi Trucks 41,200 811,500 2.7 million Semi Trucks per Day 160 3,120 10,330 20
Ethanol s Share of Iowa s Corn Production 3,000 2,500 Non Ethanol Use, 370 MIllion Bushels 2,000 1,500 1,000 2007 Corn Production, 2,441 Proposed Ethanol Use, 1,101 Construction, 585 500 Existing Ethanol Use, 730 0 21
Draw Area Existing Ethanol Plants Rail Line NHS 22
Draw Area Existing & Under Construction Plants Rail Line NHS Existing Construction 23
Draw Area Existing, Under Construction & Proposed Plants Rail Line NHS Existing Construction Proposed 24
Outbound Requirements for Ethanol 100 Million Gallon For Existing Plants For Planned Sites Corn All by rail 9,260 cars 182,600 cars 421,700 cars Ethanol All by rail 3,330 cars 65,700 cars 151,800 cars DDGs 3,150 62,100 143,400 Total 6,480 cars 127,800 cars 295,200 cars Ethanol 65% by rail 2,170 cars 42,700 cars 98,700 cars DDGs 56% by rail 1,760 34,800 80,300 Total 3,930 cars 77,500 cars 179,000 cars Ethanol 35% by truck 4,375 semis 86,300 semis 199,200 semis DDGs 44% by truck 5,541 109,300 252,300 Total 9,916 semis 195,600 semis 451,500 semis Per Day 38 752 1,672 25
Iowa s Biodiesel Facilities Year Number of Plants Biodiesel Capacity Soybeans Required (million gallons) (million bushels) 2007 Existing 14 318 223 Expansion (1) 30 21 New Construction 3 65 46 Planning 13 490 343 Total 30 903 633 26
Iowa s Biodiesel Facilities Lester Estherville Milford Sioux Center Algona Mason City Marble Rock Akron Marcus Hardy Storm Lake Sergeant Bluff Galva Iowa Falls Farley Wall Lake Ralston Boone Nevada Huxley Altoona Newton Clinton Camanche Council Bluffs Washington Crawsfordsville Operational Construction Fairfield Planning Centerville Lamoni Keokuk 27
Biodiesel s Share of Iowa s Soybean Production 700 Total = 633 600 Million Bushels 500 400 300 200 100 2007 Soybean Production 443 Planned 364 Under Construction 46 Existing 223 0 28
Cellulosic Feedstock Corn Stocks Corn Cobs 3 tons / acre 117 gal / ton 350 gal / acre 1 ton / acre 80 gal / ton 80 gal / acre Miscanthus Switch Grass Sugar Cane 15 tons / acre 100 gal / ton 1500 gal / acre 7.5 tons / acre 100 gal / ton 750 gal / acre??? tons / acre??? gal / ton 600 to 800 gal / acre 29
Future Outlook Increasing corn production Shift to value adding activities Livestock feeding, processing, ethanol, biodiesel Counties importing corn More truck movements to rail sites and local markets Fewer rail shipments Local road issues Cellulosic transportation requirements 30
Questions Craig O Riley Iowa Department of Transportation Phone: (515) 239-1520 Email: Craig.ORiley@dot.iowa.gov www.dot.state.ia.us 31