Indonesia Daily Focus Mimi Halimin +62-21-515-1140 mimi.halimin@dwsec-id.com To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,451.1-1.1-2.0-10.6 MSCI Indonesia 20.2 0.0-8.2-24.0 MSCI EM 833.4-1.2-1.8-15.4 HANG SENG 22,401.7-1.4 1.2-4.5 KOSPI 1,996.6 0.0-1.1 1.7 FTSE 6,275.3-0.3-1.9-4.8 DJIA 17,758.2 0.2 3.8 0.7 NASDAQ 5,083.2-0.2 5.5 9.5 Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 15.8 2.3 16.8 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate 7.50 0 0-25 3yr 8.62-1 16 82 10yr 8.69 0 7 68 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13,619.00-0.2 1.8 12.1 USD/KRW 1,156.82-0.1 1.1 6.0 USD/JPY 123.15 0.0 2.6 6.4 USD/CNY 6.36 0.1 0.6 4.0 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 44.2 0.8-10.9-43.3 Gold 1,089.7-0.2-6.4-6.4 Coal 61.8-1.0-0.6-25.4 Palm Oil 627.5 0.0-3.5-17.5 Rubber 95.0 0.0-8.6-20.1 Nickel 9,580.0-0.5-8.8-37.2 Copper 4,964.0-0.5-6.3-25.5 Tin 14,725.0 1.0-9.8-27.3 Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ): Not a pleasant year Planters 9M15 net profit growth suffers 2015 is not shaping up to be a good year for Indonesian oil palm planters. The top five companies by market capitalization in the agricultural sub-index of the Jakarta composite index (JCI) have booked negative net profit growth in 9M15. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) booked c.idr145bn in net profit (-92.3% YoY). PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) booked IDR416bn in net profit (-10.3% YoY). PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology Tbk (SMAR) booked negative net profit growth of 158.4% YoY. PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP) booked negative net profit growth of 33.5% to IDR469.7bn. PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk (BWPT) booked a net loss of IDR82.2bn. AALI s 3Q15 review: Weak demand & weak prices lead to net loss AALI s weakness was apparent in 1Q15, when the company booked negative 13.2% YoY revenue growth and negative 80.1% YoY net profit growth due to weak revenue, depressed margins, and foreign exchange loss. The situation improved in 2Q15 with 23.6% QoQ revenue growth, from IDR3.2tr in 1Q15 to IDR4tr in 2Q15, but then fell in 3Q15 22.0% QoQ to IDR3.1tr. Gross profit margin dropped from 31.7% in 3Q14 to 20.8% in 3Q15. AALI s struggles were exacerbated by currency exchange loss, ultimately driving bottom line to a net loss in 3Q15 of IDR299.4bn. Average CPO selling price went down 14.8% from IDR8,474/kg in 9M14 to IDR7,221/kg in 9M15. Waiting for a positive catalyst Although AALI s performance suffered in 2015, the impact of El Nino next year might boost CPO prices, as should the implementation of biodiesel programs boost domestic demand and rebalance slowing global demand, hence bringing positive sentiment to AALI. AALI s monthly CPO selling price JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 5,500 1,100 950 4,500 800 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/14 08/15 650 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Local flashes ADRO: Work on the PLTU project, Adaro Seek Foreign Banks Syndicated Loan. PT Adaro Energy Tbk will attract a syndicated loan from foreign banks this year to fund projects Steam Power (PLTU) for USD 550 million in Kalimantan. Director of Adaro Energy, Syah Indra Aman stated that the company is still in the process of finalizing the project loan and expected to be completed by the end of the year. (CNN Indonesia) BSDE: Until September, BSDE acquires 42 hectares of land. PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) successfully acquired land area of 42 hectares (ha) during the first nine months of this year. Thus, the company's total land bank this year reaches 3,952 ha. Hermawan Wijaya, Director BSDE said the land acquisition value reached IDR 2.07 trillion. The addition of the largest land bank is mainly in BSD City area of 37 ha. This action is expected to be the basis of the company's future growth. (Kontan) TBIG: Tower Bersama pocket syndicated loan of USD 275 million. In the midst of fluctuating exchange rates, PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) achieved the loans denominated in US dollars. TBIG obtain a syndicated loan worth USD 275 million. With the rupiah at IDR 13,600, the loan equivalent to IDR 3.74 trillion. At first, TBIG eyeing a loan facility of USD 200 million. However, due to oversubscription up to 4 times, the number increased to 37.5% of the original plan. The syndicated loan was obtained from 10 banks, each of which provides a minimum of USD 25 million. (Kontan) WTON: Wika Beton Targeting IDR2.6 Trillion Revenue at End of Year. PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk. (WTON) is targeting revenues worth IDR2.6 trillion at the end of the year. Until now, the company has not released financial report third quarter of 2015. In the first half of 2015, net profit attributable to the parent entity slumped 68.9% to IDR53.5 billion from IDR172.4 billion. Decline in net profit is in line with the decline in revenue. (Bisnis Indonesia) TINS: Timah Ambitious Achieves Revenues of IDR 10 trillion in 2016. This year, PT Timah Tbk (TINS) claimed depressed due to a decrease in tin price on the commodity exchanges. Nevertheless, next year the company is targeting revenue could increase to IDR10 trillion. Director of TINS Wachid Usman said, efforts to increase the company's revenue is done by improving the performance of subsidiaries TINS. (Okezone) LTLS: Lautan Luas Prepares Capex IDR 300 billion next year. PT Lautan Luas Tbk. has budgeted IDR 250 billion to IDR300 billion for capital expenditure next year, to support company's expansion plans. The company plans to build a sweetener factory with a capacity of 100,000 metric tons per year in Cikande, Tangerang. This plant will be built at the beginning or middle of next year, and scheduled will complete in 2018. (Bisnis Indonesia) MIKA: Mitra Keluarga Targeting a Net Profit in 2016 Grew 17%. PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA) targeting revenue in 2016 increase by 15% year on year (yoy). This year, MIKA hopes its revenues to grow 13% to IDR 2.1 trillion. So that, next year MIKA revenue to reach IDR 2.4 trillion. While the company's net profit is targeted to grow 17% this year to IDR 604.8 billion. (Kontan) 2
Technical analysis Recommendation Hold Close 4,451 Resistance 4,490 Support 4,430 Stop-Loss 4,410 Indicator daily GC = Golden-cross DC = Dead-cross UP = Up DN = Down NM = Normal Stoch MACD PSAR Volume AC = Accumulation Dis = Distribution OB = Overbought OS = Oversold OS DN DN UP View from the Charts JCI end lower near its symmetrical triangle support at 4,450-4,455 skid by 1.1% to 4,451, as the Asian markets closed on the negative territory, amid sharpening worries on global growth. Sharp decline on banking and consumer stocks like BMRI UNVR INDF KLBF ICBP, led the financial and consumer sectors to closed lower, whilst bid continued on HMSP ASII and bargain hunting at PPRO SSIA CTRA ADHI and PWON pushed the miscellaneous industry as well as property sectors to post a positive number respectively by 0.8% and 0.7%. Foreign investors booked IDR467.9bn net sold in IDR6.7tr total value traded across the board, with a ratio of 106:172. Trading at oversold bottom stochastic after completely closed the 4,470-gapped support, indicates that the pressure may end and JCI had more room for a technical rebound on its 4,455 symmetrical triangle support or 4,400-4,410 levels at 161.8% Fibonacci ratio. Chart 1. JCI Daily Chart Chart 2.JCI Intraday Chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3
Chart 3. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 4,800 USD/IDR (R) 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 11/3 (IDR) 14,800 14,600 14,400 14,200 14,000 13,800 13,600 13,400 13,200 Chart 4. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) 8 4 0-4 -8-12 -16-1.1 0.1-1.8 1.4-3.0 Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute 0.0-11.6 1D 1W 1M 1Y Relative 4.9 Chart 5. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 6. Energy price (USDmn) 100 50 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 -300-350 -400 0-158 -347-10 -37 Note: The latest figure for India are Nov, 9 th -2 1 Day 5 Days 64-22 -22-27 -106 Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India -64 (USDmn) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 70 2,500 2,400 2,300 60 2,200 2,100 50 2,000 1,900 1,800 40 1,700 8/15 8/15 9/15 9/15 10/15 10/15 11/15 Chart 7. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 8. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin 120 110 100 90 80 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Silver Gold Platinum 70 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 80 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 4
Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name FINANCIALS Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia BBCA 12,925 318,666-1.5-1.7-2.1 3.0 15.9 14.1 3.0 2.5 20.0 19.4 Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 8,400 196,000-3.4-5.1-7.7-18.4 8.9 7.6 1.5 1.3 17.5 18.1 Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 10,450 257,793-1.2-2.3-0.9-2.1 9.8 8.7 1.9 1.6 21.2 20.4 Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 4,830 90,073-0.9-2.4-3.9-14.9 8.1 6.9 1.2 1.1 15.9 16.7 Bank Danamon Indonesia BDMN 2,805 26,885-2.3-3.3-13.0-31.0 8.0 6.1 0.7 0.7 9.2 11.2 CONSUMER Gudang Garam GGRM 46,400 89,278-2.3 3.5 6.9-23.7 15.3 13.2 2.2 2.0 14.8 15.7 Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 12,525 73,033-2.9-4.6-4.2 13.3 20.7 18.1 4.1 3.6 20.5 20.5 Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 5,375 47,195-3.2-7.7-7.3-16.3 11.4 9.8 1.6 1.5 14.5 15.1 Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,370 64,219-4.9-2.8-11.3-17.0 25.8 22.6 5.3 4.7 21.6 22.2 Unilever Indonesia UNVR 35,400 270,102-3.5-3.8-9.3 18.3 41.2 36.7 50.3 44.4 127.9 131.0 AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari AALI 18,700 29,448-3.2-5.8 0.4-18.4 15.1 13.4 2.3 2.0 15.8 16.4 PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,365 9,313 0.0-4.2 1.5-27.6 12.3 11.2 1.2 1.1 10.1 10.1 Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,735 16,526-8.9-9.2-6.0 56.3 17.2 14.5 6.1 5.5 25.2 24.6 INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata EXCL 3,145 26,863 3.6-4.7-2.5-38.0 36.6 20.2 1.9 1.8 4.5 7.9 Jasa Marga JSMR 4,915 33,422-1.3-2.7-11.4-22.6 19.4 18.2 2.8 2.6 14.8 13.7 Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,700 65,452-3.9-7.8-10.0-53.6 9.9 9.0 1.5 1.4 15.6 15.1 Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 6,550 31,417-3.3-12.4-3.7-27.2 19.7 17.1 5.0 4.0 25.2 24.3 Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 2,695 271,656-1.3-1.6-0.2 3.0 14.5 13.2 3.3 3.0 22.5 23.0 BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,950 59,019-2.9-2.5-5.7-34.5 11.1 10.0 2.0 1.7 18.5 18.2 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 2,450 40,175-6.8-8.8 0.0-35.4 15.4 12.6 2.8 2.4 19.7 20.4 Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 18,100 66,630-2.0-5.7-6.1-19.6 13.4 12.2 2.5 2.3 18.7 19.3 Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 435 4,637-5.0-8.8 0.0-59.5 18.5 12.8 0.8 0.7 5.1 6.1 MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 8,050 9,096-0.9-6.7-23.3-59.1 6.3 6.0 0.7 0.7 11.1 11.0 Adaro Energy ADRO 610 19,511-0.8-4.7-10.3-43.8 9.0 7.5 0.5 0.5 5.2 5.3 Aneka Tambang ANTM 342 8,219 1.5-4.7-15.4-56.0 33.3 3.8 0.4 0.3-0.1 7.6 Vale Indonesia INCO 2,135 21,214-1.2-2.1-7.6-42.8 14.3 14.3 0.8 0.9 6.2 6.7 Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 7,325 16,878-2.3-1.7 13.6-42.1 9.9 9.3 1.6 1.4 16.6 16.7 TRADE United Tractors UNTR 17,600 65,650-1.7-4.0-10.7-7.1 10.1 9.7 1.5 1.4 14.9 14.3 AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,000 23,694 0.8 2.6 2.6 28.1 18.9 16.4 3.4 3.0 17.7 18.3 Global Mediacom BMTR 860 12,211-6.5-4.4-22.9-52.5 10.0 8.3 1.0 0.9 10.8 12.3 Matahari Department Store LPPF 15,275 44,571-0.2-7.1-8.3 8.3 20.2 16.9 19.8 12.6 128.6 92.9 Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,640 23,413-4.4-5.7-13.5-36.1 12.1 10.6 2.2 2.0 18.9 19.5 Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 2,085 11,213-1.7 1.0-15.8-33.4 18.3 17.1 2.9 2.5 16.0 15.7 Surya Citra Media SCMA 3,200 46,789 2.9 5.4 6.8 1.7 27.1 23.1 10.0 8.3 40.1 38.9 Siloam International Hospital SILO 9,625 11,127-3.5-1.3-21.7-32.5 86.1 54.1 6.0 5.4 6.3 9.2 PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,640 31,565-0.3-3.5-5.5 7.5 10.9 9.8 1.5 1.3 14.7 14.7 Adhi Karya ADHI 2,225 7,923 2.8-3.7 4.0 4.3 13.5 10.4 1.5 1.4 11.2 13.1 Alam Sutera Relaty ASRI 359 7,054-1.1-7.5-10.7-19.5 5.3 4.7 0.9 0.7 17.6 16.6 Ciputra Development CTRA 1,245 19,087 4.6 5.5 21.5 11.9 12.6 11.2 2.0 1.8 15.8 15.3 Lippo Karawaci LPKR 1,155 26,655-0.4-8.0-0.9 13.2 15.2 13.7 1.4 1.3 10.1 10.1 Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,675 17,796-0.1-0.8-3.4 35.4 18.9 14.6 4.4 3.6 25.4 26.4 Pakuwon Jati PWON 435 20,949 2.4-3.5 4.6-1.1 8.6 7.5 2.1 1.7 26.7 24.8 Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,370 19,765-0.7-5.5-3.5 10.5 13.6 11.9 2.6 2.2 19.9 19.8 Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,755 16,941 0.9-3.2-8.6-0.4 20.5 16.0 3.3 2.9 16.1 17.7 Waskita Karya WSKT 1,685 22,863 1.5-2.9 3.7 82.0 21.7 17.6 2.4 2.2 12.0 12.9 MISCELLANEOUS Astra International ASII 6,500 263,143 1.2 1.2-3.0-3.3 13.8 12.3 2.3 2.1 17.0 17.3 *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 5
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 1,698.9-2.1 ACES IJ 760 13,034 12.59 Mining 931.4-1.0 ISAT IJ 4795 26,056 5.4 Basic-Industry 368.5-2.4 SMAR IJ 4900 14,074 4.81 Miscellaneous Industry 1,127.1 0.8 CTRA IJ 1245 19,087 4.62 Consumer Goods 2,033.5-2.0 EXCL IJ 3145 26,863 3.6 Property & Construction 475.7 0.6 ABMM IJ 2725 7,502 3.02 Infrastructure 890.6-1.4 SCMA IJ 3200 46,789 2.89 Finance 655.2-1.4 ADHI IJ 2225 7,923 2.77 Trade 821.3-0.2 ULTJ IJ 4000 11,554 2.56 Composite 4,451.1-1.1 PWON IJ 435 20,949 2.35 Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close HMSP IJ 2.9 100,575 UNVR IJ -3.5 35,400 ASII IJ 1.2 6,500 BMRI IJ -3.5 8,400 ACES IJ 12.6 760 BBCA IJ -1.5 12,925 ISAT IJ 5.4 4,795 TLKM IJ -1.3 2,695 SCMA IJ 2.9 3,200 KLBF IJ -4.9 1,370 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:00am CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks 1:30am GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks 2:01am USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.07 2.6 3:30am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 4:00am NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report 4:05am NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks 7:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.2% 7:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.8% 3.8% 1:30pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.8% 5.7% 1:30pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 10.2% 10.3% 1:30pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 10.9% 10.9% 2:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -19.1% All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 3:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.2% -0.6% 11th-17th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 13.2% 13.1% 11th-17th CNY New Loans 800B 1050B 5:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.2% 3.0% 5:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 1.6K 4.6K 5:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4% All Day CAD Bank Holiday All Day USD Bank Holiday 9:15pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 11th-13th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 5.30% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory 6
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