Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Monday, 7 May 2012 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,216.7 (-0.2%) Turnover: IDR4.1t (-4.5%) Foreign net buy: IDR511b (Net sell: IDR40b) SPOTLIGHT For details please refer to our separate report(s) Metal mining Sector Update - Simply bleak Ore export tax comes into effect this month; Negative for ANTM UNDERWEIGHT on weak price outlook; REDUCE on ANTM & TINS 1Q12 depressed margins to persist into 2Q12 TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS BPS to announce 1Q12 GDP growth today INDUSTRY Bank Indonesia to buy government bonds from banks 1Q12 credit card transactions value increased by 12.1% y-y Blockade on Suban field: Potential reduction on national oil & gas production CORPORATE S&P cut outlook on BUMI s credit rating INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 21,086.0 (0.8) 14.4 (9.6) IDX (Indonesia) 4,216.7 (0.2) KLCI (Malaysia) 1, KOSPI (Korea) 1,989.2 (0.3) 9.0 (8.8) Nikkei (Japan) 9, (6.2) PCOMP (Phil.) 5,297.6 (0.1) SENSEX (India) 16,831.6 (1.9) 8.9 (8.9) SET (Thailand) 1,227.8 (1.0) SHCOMP (China) 2, (14.4) Shenzhen (China) (18.1) STI (Singapore) 2,990.6 (0.3) 13.0 (4.0) TWSE (Taiwan) 7, (13.9) VNI (Vietnam) (2.1) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,162.0 (1.9) 0.1 (22.1) DAX (Germany) 6,561.5 (2.0) 11.2 (12.4) Dow Jones (USA) 13,038.3 (1.3) FTSE 100 (UK) 5,655.1 (1.9) 1.5 (5.4) IBOV (Brazil) 60,820.9 (2.1) 7.2 (5.6) NASDAQ (USA) 2,956.3 (2.2) RTSI (Russia) 1,489.6 (0.6) 7.8 (23.1) S&P 500 (USA) 1,369.1 (1.6) ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % TLK US (IDR) 8, IIT US (IDR) 4, (15.6) (14.7) BUMI LN (IDR) 78,187 (3.6) (40.3) (61.2) Coal (USD/t) 100 (0.3) (11.2) (19.9) Corn (USD/mtn) (8.9) Coffee (USD/t) 3,433 (3.4) (16.9) (37.1) Copper (USD/t) 8,254 (0.4) 8.7 (9.3) Cotton (USD/t) 1,898 (1.3) (6.2) (50.3) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 1,143 (1.3) DOC (IDR/kg) 4, Gold (USD/oz.) 1,638 (0.2) Iron ore (USD/mtn) 144 (0.6) 4.0 (21.4) Milk (USD/t) (12.5) (6.4) Nickel (USD/t) 17, (6.5) (32.2) Oil (USD/barrel) 98 (7.0) (2.6) (1.0) Pulp (USD/t)* 851 (0.3) 2.0 (15.7) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, (0.3) 23.9 Rubber (USD/t) 3,592 (1.1) 9.8 (17.2) Soybeanoil (USD/t) 1,170 (0.4) 1.9 (4.1) Steel (USD/t) 686 (0.2) 2.7 (12.3) Sugar (USD/t) 532 (0.8) Tins (USD/t) 21,402 (1.6) 11.8 (30.8) Wheat (USD/t) 223 (0.5) (11.7) (32.6) ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 11A 12F 13F 11A 12F 13F Cur acc bal (%GDP) Op.prof.grwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.1) (1.5) (1.0) EPS growth (%) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG (x) IDR/USD 9,100 8,800 8,750 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) M2 growth (%) Div. yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD USD/EUR (0.0) 9.5 IDR/USD 9,250 9, JPY/USD SGD/USD (0.9) JIBOR (%) (0.8) (2.5) BI rate (%) (0.3) (1.0) TD 1 month (%) (0.9) (1.2) CDS (bps) (17.4) 29.1 Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 ECONOMICS BPS to announce 1Q12 GDP growth today Today, the Central Statistics Office (BPS) will announce 1Q12 GDP growth and we expect GDP to grow 6.53% y-y, slightly higher than 1Q11 s level of 6.46% y-y on the back of solid consumption and improved direct investment realization. Solid consumption was cemented by relatively low inflationary pressures in 1Q12 despite concerns on higher fuel price. Additionally, Coordinating Investment Board (BKPM) stated that Indonesia s 1Q12 total direct investment grew 32.8% y-y to IDR71.2t (USD7.8b) on higher domestic direct investment (DDI) realization. Note that 1Q12 DDI increased 40.1% y-y to IDR19.7t (USD2.2b) amid uncertainties coming from the government s planned fuel price hike earlier. Meanwhile, 1Q12 foreign direct investment (FDI) posted the highest realization record ever to IDR51.5t (USD5.7b), up 30.4% y-y. On the flip side, 1Q12 total exports remained relatively weak as it only grew 6.6% y-y to USD48.3b on sluggish global economic recoveries. Going forward, as 2012 exports are likely to slow particularity with uncertainties weighing on global economic outlook, we believe 2012 GDP growth will slightly decline to 6.4% from 2011 s level of 6.5%. (Central Statistic Office, BKPM, Bahana) INDUSTRY Bank Indonesia to buy government bonds from banks Bank Indonesia s (BI) Department Head of Economic Research and Monetary Policy, Perry Warjiyo, stated that BI has signaled out its intention to buy government bonds from banks that is currently Available For Sale. Before purchasing, BI would require an acceptable yield and pricing of the government bonds, which would be determine in the future, depending on prevailing market conditions at the time. (Investor Daily) 1Q12 credit card transactions value increased 12.1% y-y According to Bank Indonesia s (BI) recently released data, 1Q12 credit card transactions value reached IDR47.4t, up 12.1% from 1Q11 s credit card transactions value of IDR42.3t. Around IDR46.3t, 98% of 1Q12 total credit transactions, contributed from customers shopping transactions. The remaining 2%, around IDR1.1t, was contributed from cash withdrawal transactions. (Indonesia Finance Today) Blockade on Suban field: Potential reduction on national oil & gas production The national oil & gas production could potentially be reduced as a consequence of ConocoPhillips s Suban field road blockade by unknown individuals. BP Migas Head of Public Relations, Security and Formalities Gde Pradnyana stated the blockade made operating activities at Suban field at risk. Currently, Conoco mobilized its employees through an alternative road, which has longer distance and inadequate for transportation. BP Migas expects Suban s 2012 production to reach 780mmscfd of gas and 10,000 bopd. Bahana: We believe this news will bring negative sentiment on Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS-BUY- IDR3,675-TP:IDR4,400) since more than 50% of its gas distribution for South Sumatera and West Java (SBU I) has been supplied from Suban field. (Indonesia Finance Today) CORPORATE S&P cut outlook on BUMI s credit rating Standard & Poor s (S&P) maintains Bumi Resources s (BUMI-REDUCE-IDR2,025-TP:IDR2,000) BB credit rating, however, S&P cut its outlook to negative from stable. The rating is two notches below investment grade. (The Jakarta Post) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) PRICE Potential (%) 5/4/2012 5/3/2012 CHANGE (%) Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Delta Dunia Makmur DOID HOLD Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 10, ,650 8, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1, ,060 1, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 18,250 (14.1) 21,250 20, Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 2,000 (1.2) 2,025 1, Indomobil Sukses IMAS BUY 21, ,200 17, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 8, ,250 7, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,025 3, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 6, ,500 5, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 7, ,800 5, Gozco Plantations GZCO HOLD Indocement INTP HOLD 20, ,850 18, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 8, ,350 7, Agung Podomoro Land APLN HOLD Citra Marga Nusaphala CMNP BUY 2,000 (15.8) 2,375 2, Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, ,100 1, Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,370 1, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 4, ,675 3, Timah TINS REDUCE 1,500 (17.1) 1,810 1, Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (8.6) 4,925 4, Astra Agro Lestari AALI REDUCE 18,500 (14.5) 21,650 21, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 1, ,720 1, Bank Central Asia BBCA HOLD 8, ,050 8, Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 5,600 (6.7) 6,000 6, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,550 6, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN HOLD 2, ,650 2, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,800 4, Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 5, ,100 4, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL HOLD Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 14,600 (2.0) 14,900 14, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM * * * 8,350 8, IDX IDX 4,217 4,224 (0.2) Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 24, ,250 18,300 (0.3) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 4, ,150 4,175 (0.6) Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 7,800 (50.8) 15,850 15,950 (0.6) Bakrieland Development ELTY REDUCE 110 (2.7) (0.9) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR BUY 1, ,020 1,030 (1.0) Medco Energy MEDC BUY 3, ,275 2,300 (1.1) AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 4, ,075 4,125 (1.2) Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN HOLD (1.2) Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 14, ,150 12,300 (1.2) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,470 1,490 (1.3) Bank Bukopin BBKP HOLD (1.4) Gudang Garam GGRM BUY 71, ,400 59,250 (1.4) Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY (1.4) United Tractors UNTR BUY 37, ,300 29,750 (1.5) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 49, ,000 39,600 (1.5) Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 2, ,810 1,840 (1.6) Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 3, ,000 3,050 (1.6) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA HOLD 1,100 (5.2) 1,160 1,180 (1.7) Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY (1.7) Kalbe Farma KLBF REDUCE 3,000 (23.1) 3,900 3,975 (1.9) Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,575 2,625 (1.9) Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 4, ,825 3,900 (1.9) Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (79.6) (2.0) Astra International ASII BUY 86, ,700 74,200 (2.0) Harum Energy HRUM BUY 9, ,100 7,250 (2.1) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,340 1,370 (2.2) Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,770 1,810 (2.2) Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 4, ,225 3,300 (2.3) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP HOLD 3, ,625 2,700 (2.8) Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS BUY 1, (3.0) Wintermar Offshore WINS BUY (3.1) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5,500 (1.8) 5,600 5,800 (3.4) Ciputra Property CTRP BUY (3.8) Indika Energy INDY BUY 3, ,150 2,250 (4.4) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,460 1,530 (4.6) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY (7.5) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Weekly) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) PRICE Potential (%) 5/4/2012 4/27/2012 CHANGE (%) Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 5, ,100 3, Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, , Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 7, ,800 5, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS BUY 1, Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 18,250 (14.1) 21,250 19, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 4, ,675 3, Medco Energy MEDC BUY 3, ,275 2, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1, , Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 8, ,250 6, Citra Marga Nusaphala CMNP BUY 2,000 (15.8) 2,375 2, Indomobil Sukses IMAS BUY 21, ,200 17, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Agung Podomoro Land APLN HOLD Indocement INTP HOLD 20, ,850 18, Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,770 1, Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,575 2, Astra International ASII BUY 86, ,700 70, Bank Central Asia BBCA HOLD 8, ,050 7, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,800 4, Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (79.6) Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL HOLD Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 6, ,500 5, XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5,500 (1.8) 5,600 5, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 10, ,650 8, Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 5,600 (6.7) 6,000 5, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY Astra Agro Lestari AALI REDUCE 18,500 (14.5) 21,650 21, Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,470 1, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY IDX IDX 4,217 4, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 8, ,350 7, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,025 4, Timah TINS REDUCE 1,500 (17.1) 1,810 1, Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 24, ,250 18, Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (8.6) 4,925 4, Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 2, ,810 1, Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 1, ,720 1, Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP HOLD Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 2,000 (1.2) 2,025 2, Delta Dunia Makmur DOID HOLD Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 14,600 (2.0) 14,900 14, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 4, ,825 3,850 (0.6) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,370 1,380 (0.7) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA HOLD 1,100 (5.2) 1,160 1,170 (0.9) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 4, ,150 4,200 (1.2) Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 14, ,150 12,300 (1.2) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,340 1,360 (1.5) United Tractors UNTR BUY 37, ,300 29,750 (1.5) Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM BUY 9, ,350 8,500 (1.8) AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 4, ,075 4,150 (1.8) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,550 6,700 (2.2) Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 4, ,225 3,300 (2.3) Borneo Lumbung BORN HOLD (2.4) Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 7,800 (50.8) 15,850 16,250 (2.5) Kalbe Farma KLBF REDUCE 3,000 (23.1) 3,900 4,000 (2.5) Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 3, ,000 3,100 (3.2) Harum Energy HRUM BUY 9, ,100 7,350 (3.4) Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN HOLD 2, ,650 2,750 (3.6) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR BUY 1, ,020 1,060 (3.8) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY (3.9) Bank Bukopin BBKP HOLD (4.0) Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY (4.2) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,460 1,540 (5.2) Indika Energy INDY BUY 3, ,150 2,275 (5.5) Wintermar WINS BUY (6.1) Gozco Plantations GZCO HOLD (6.2) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 49, ,000 42,300 (7.8) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP HOLD 3, ,625 3,000 (12.5) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP # of sharesfree float Mkt cap* 3M avg to* P/BV (x) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) Revenue (IDRb)* EPS growth (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,067 1, nc nc AIRPORT SERVIC N CASS BUY , , ,067 1, nc nc AUTO & EQUIP. OW 441, , , ASII BUY 72,700 86,500 4, , , , UNTR BUY 29,300 37,500 3, , ,402 78, nc nc IMAS BUY 18,200 21,000 1, , ,906 32, GJTL HOLD 2,575 2,750 3, , ,655 13, nc DOID HOLD , , ,169 9, na na BANKING N 691, , , na na na na BBCA HOLD 8,050 8,900 24, , ,287 34, na na na na BMRI BUY 7,350 8,500 23, , ,080 50, na na na na BBRI BUY 6,550 8,300 24, , ,050 51, na na na na BBNI BUY 4,025 5,200 18, , ,842 27, na na na na BDMN HOLD 6,000 5,600 9, , ,789 21, na na na na BJBR BUY 1,020 1,320 9, , ,132 4, na na na na BBTN BUY 1,370 1,850 8, , ,762 5, na na na na BBKP HOLD , , ,391 3, na na na na CEMENT OW 141, ,670 40, nc nc INTP HOLD 18,850 20,000 3, , ,727 19, nc nc SMGR BUY 12,150 14,400 5, , ,943 21, nc nc CONSTRUC. OW 29, ,743 37, TOWR BUY 14,900 14,600 1, , ,061 2, WIKA BUY 1,100 1,200 6, , ,669 11, nc nc PTPP BUY , , ,280 9, TOTL BUY , , ,922 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 1,060 1,200 1, , ,811 11, CONSUMER OW 412, , , UNVR HOLD 21,250 18,250 7, , ,178 31, GGRM BUY 58,400 71,000 1, , ,355 51, nc INDF BUY 4,800 6,000 8, , ,961 52, nc nc KLBF REDUCE 3,900 3,000 10, , ,501 14, nc nc IC BP BUY 5,800 7,200 5, , ,649 23, nc nc MAPI BUY 7,250 8,400 1, , ,568 9, RALS BUY 960 1,000 7, , ,335 8, nc nc ROTI BUY 3,825 4,800 1, , ,026 1, nc MEDIA 16, ,681 3, nc nc SCMA BUY 8,650 10,450 1, , ,681 3, nc nc MINING N 338, , , ADRO BUY 1,810 2,525 31, , ,764 41, BYAN REDUCE 15,850 7,800 3, , ,681 16, nc nc BUMI REDUCE 2,025 2,000 20, , ,607 45, ITMG BUY 39,000 49,900 1, , ,473 25, (4.5) nc nc PTBA BUY 18,250 24,500 2, , ,971 12, nc nc INCO HOLD 3,000 3,200 9, , ,354 12,188 (14.6) nc nc HRUM BUY 7,100 9,850 2, , ,119 10, nc nc ANTM HOLD 1,720 1,750 9, , ,590 10,922 (8.5) nc nc BORN HOLD , , ,209 9,015 (6.0) INDY BUY 2,150 3,200 5, , ,182 6, TINS REDUCE 1,810 1,500 5, , ,692 9, nc nc OIL & GAS N 112, ,250 61,490 (13.6) PGAS BUY 3,675 4,400 24, , ,203 28, nc nc AKRA HOLD 4,075 4,700 3, , ,835 31, nc nc MEDC BUY 2,275 3,200 3, , , ,257.8 (24.8) PLANTATIONS N 90, ,737 46,216 (10.6) AALI REDUCE 21,650 18,500 1, , ,787 12,664 (12.1) nc nc SIMP HOLD 1,340 1,500 15, , ,249 15, LSIP HOLD 2,625 3,250 6, , ,999 5, nc nc SGRO BUY 3,225 4,100 1, , ,193 3,595 (18.0) nc nc BWPT BUY 1,460 1,950 4, , ,116 1, UNSP HOLD , , ,741 6,772 (29.0) GZCO HOLD , , POULTRY OW 52, ,514 43, CPIN HOLD 2,650 2,925 16, , ,813 23, nc nc JPFA BUY 4,150 4,500 2, , ,702 20, PROPERTY OW 106, ,547 35, BSDE BUY 1,470 1,810 17, , ,375 3, nc nc LPKR BUY 830 1,110 23, , ,999 5, ASRI BUY , , ,268 3, nc CTRA BUY , , ,983 4, nc SMRA BUY 1,770 2,350 6, , ,936 3, APLN BUY , , ,453 5, SSIA HOLD 1,160 1,100 4, , ,329 3, nc nc CTRP BUY , , , nc KIJA BUY , , ,950 2, LPCK BUY 4,100 5, , ,583 2, SHIPPING N 1, ,046 1, WINS BUY , , ,046 1, TELCOS N 249, , , TLKM ** 8,350 ** 20, , ,452 78, EXCL BUY 5,600 5,500 8, , ,091 21, ISAT REDUCE 4,925 4,500 5, , ,667 23, BTEL REDUCE , , ,838 2, (3.0) (10.0) (10.3) (17.6) (20.7) TINPLATE N ,686 1, nc nc NIKL HOLD , ,686 1, nc nc TOLL ROAD N 42, ,744 7, JSMR BUY 5,500 6,500 6, , ,815 6, CMNP BUY 2,375 2,000 2, , nc nc Market OW 2,730,430 2,968 1,179,786 1,350, Note: *Total, **In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review *** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price ++ Post-rights PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 05/02/ :10 US Total Vehicle Sales APR 14.40M 14.38M 14.32M 05/02/ :50 JN Monetary Base (YoY) APR % -0.20% 05/02/ :00 SK HSBC Manufacturing PMI APR /02/ :30 JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY MAR /02/ :00 TA HSBC Manufacturing PMI APR /02/ :30 CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI APR /02/ :30 TH Consumer Confidence Economic APR /02/ :00 HU Producer Prices (YoY) MAR 6.70% /02/ :30 TH Benchmark Interest Rate May /02/ :50 FR PMI Manufacturing APR F /02/ :55 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) APR 6.70% /02/ :55 GE PMI Manufacturing APR F 4630% % 05/02/ :00 IT Unemployment Rate (SA) MAR P /02/ :00 EC PMI Manufacturing APR F /02/ :30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) MAR /02/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate MAR /02/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Apr /02/ :15 US ADP Employment Change APR 170K K 05/02/ :45 US ISM New York APR /02/ :00 US Factory Orders MAR /02/2012 HU Hungary PMI (SA) APR Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ FX reserves (USDb) Jan 2/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 1/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 1/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference Rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Jan 2/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Corporate Date Time AGM SMR Utama 5/4/2012 AEGM Bumi Resources 5/7/ :00 AGM Adira Dinamika Multi Finance PT 5/7/ :30 AGM Global Land Development 5/7/ :00 AGM Sekar Laut 5/7/ :00 AGM Enseval Putera Megatrading 5/8/2012 9:30 AGM Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa 5/8/ :00 AEGM Tunas Ridean 5/9/ :30 AGM Trada Maritime 5/9/ :00 AGM Medco Energi Internasional 5/9/ :00 AGM Kawasan Industri Jababeka 5/9/2012 9:00 AGM Jasa Marga Persero 5/9/ :00 AGM Mitra Investindo 5/10/2012 AGM Bank Artha Graha Internasional 5/10/ :00 AEGM Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra 5/10/ :00 AGM Salim Ivomas Pratama 5/10/ :00 AGM Total Bangun Persada 5/11/2012 9:00 AGM Exploitasi Energi Indonesia 5/11/ :00 AGM Indofood Sukses Makmur 5/11/ :00 AGM Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur 5/11/ :00 AGM Pioneerindo Gourmet International 5/11/ :00 AGM Pembangunan Jaya Ancol 5/11/2012 9:30 AGM Adhi Karya Persero 5/11/ :00 AGM Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero 5/11/ :00 AGM Bukaka Teknik Utama 5/11/2012 AGM Voksel Electric 5/14/ :30 AGM Multi Bintang Indonesia 5/14/ :00 AGM Indosat 5/14/ :00 AGM Bank Pundi Indonesia 5/14/ :00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Bank Danamon 4, % 4/20/2012 4/24/2012 5/8/2012 BDMN IJ Bank Jabar Banten 1, % 4/18/2012 4/20/2012 5/4/2012 BJBR IJ Petrosea 4, % 4/23/2012 4/25/2012 5/7/2012 PTRO IJ XL Axiata 5, % 4/23/2012 4/25/2012 5/9/2012 EXCL IJ Bank Rakyat Indonesia 7, % 4/27/2012 5/1/2012 5/15/2012 BBRI IJ Indo Tambangraya Megah 41,850 2, % 4/30/2012 5/2/2012 5/15/2012 ITMG IJ Matahari Putra Prima % 5/1/2012 5/3/2012 5/16/2012 MPPA IJ Multifiling Mitra Indonesia % 5/2/2012 5/4/2012 5/16/2012 MFMI IJ Trias Sentosa % 5/4/2012 5/8/2012 5/24/2012 TRST IJ Holcim Indonesia 2, % 5/8/2012 5/10/2012 5/25/2012 SMCB IJ Tigaraksa Satria 1, % 5/8/2012 5/10/2012 5/28/2012 TGKA IJ Astra agro Lestari 23, % 5/9/2012 5/11/2012 5/29/2012 AALI IJ Lippo General Insurance 1, % 5/11/2012 5/15/2012 5/31/2012 LPGI IJ Bank Negara Indonesia 3, % 5/11/2012 5/15/2012 5/30/2012 BBNI IJ United Tractors 31, % - - 5/30/2012 UNTR IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 EMDE 1/12/11 Megapolitan Development Property MBTO 1/13/11 Martina Berto Cosmetics GIAA 2/11/11 Garuda Indonesia Aviation 4, Q11 total 5,227 4 MBSS 4/6/11 Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Coal shipping SRAJ 4/11/11 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Hospital management HDFA 5/11/11 HD Finance Motorcycle financing BULL 5/23/11 Buana Listya Tama Shipping 1, JAWA 5/30/11 Jaya Agra Wattie Plantation SIMP 6/9/11 Salim Ivomas Agribusiness 3, MTLA 6/20/11 Metropolitan Land Property Q11 total 5, TIFA 7/8/11 Tifa Finance Finance SDMU 7/12/11 Sidomulyo Selaras Transportation PTIS 7/12/11 Indo Straits Shipping ALDO 7/12/11 Alkindo Naratama Paper processing STAR 7/13/11 Star Petrochem Plastic Manufacture SMRU 10/10/11 SMR Utama Mining SUPR 10/11/11 Solusi Tunas Pratama Telecommunication ARII 11/8/11 Atlas Resources Mining GEMS 11/17/11 Golden Energy Mining 2, VIVA 11/21/11 Visi Media Asia Media 4, CASS 12/05/11 Cardig Aero Service Aviation service ABMM 12/06/11 ABM Investama Coal mining 2, ERAA 12/14/11 Erajaya Swasembada Cellular distribution 3, GWSA 12/23/11 Greenwood Sejahtera Property BAJA 12/21/11 Sarana Central Bajatama Steel total 14, PADI 1/9/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 1/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 2/1/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 4/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Express Transindo Utama Transportation Pertamina Drilling Service Oil & gas services Geothermal Energy Energy Garuda Maintenance Facility Aviation service Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti Coal mining 1, Cipaganti group Transportation Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance MNC Sky Vision Media 2, Riau Baraharum Coal mining 5, Waskita Karya Construction Bahtera Niaga Internasional Shipping Telesindo Shop Telecommunication PLN Enjiniring Electricity Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Asuransi Mitra Maparya Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Bank Jatim Banks 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Mitraniaga Banks Hutama Karya Construction Toba Bara Sejahtera Mining 3, Angkasa Pura I Airport services GarudaFood Food & beverage Intan Baruprana Heavy equipment financing Mitratel Telecommunication Daya Mandiri Resources Indo Krakatau Wajatama Steel Bank Sumut Banks Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation total 39,681 Grand total 65,356 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 1/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 1/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 1/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 1/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 2/1/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution 300 1Q11 total 14,522 6 ABDA 4/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 5/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 6/3/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 6/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 6/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 2Q11 total 7, IMAS 7/1/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 7/8/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 7/5/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 7/6/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 9/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/2/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/4/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/3/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/2/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/9/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, MITI Mitra Investindo Granite RAJA Rukun Raharja Property OKAS Ancora Indonesia Mining TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical 3, INTA Intraco Penta Heavy equipment 4, IGAR Champion pacific Indonesia Basic industry SMMA Sinar Mas Multi Artha Financial 1, CMNP Citra Marga Nushapala Toll road BKSL Sentul City Property BABP ICB Bumiputera Banks total 12,470 Grand total 53,117 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 1Q12 Results Round ups Operating profit Net profit No Company Code (IDRb) (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Comment Actual Bahana (%) Comment 1 Gajah Tunggal GJTL Above Above 2 Lippo Cikarang LPCK Above Above 3 Ciputra Property CTRP Above Above 4 Perusahaan Gas Negara* PGAS Above Above 5 Alam Sutera Realty ASRI Above Above 6 Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA Above Above 7 Cita Marga Nusaphala CMNP Below Above 8 Summarecon Agung SMRA Above Above 9 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Below Above 10 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE In line Above 11 Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP Above Above 12 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 1, Above Above 13 Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS Above Above 14 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 5,147 4, In line 4,233 3, In line 15 Kalbe Farma KLBF In line In line 16 Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 2 1, Above In line 17 Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN In line In line 18 Bank Mandiri BMRI 4,316 4, In line 3,403 3, In line 19 Ciputra Development CTRA Above In line 20 Jasa Marga JSMR In line In line 21 United Tractors UNTR 1,932 1, In line 1,527 1, In line 22 Unilever Indonesia UNVR 1,570 1, In line 1,163 1, In line 23 Indomobil Sukses International IMAS Below In line 24 Bank Danamon BDMN 1,385 1, In line In line 25 Semen Gresik SMGR 1,256 1, In line 1,011 1, In line 26 Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL (7) (6) 88.6 Below (11) (11) In line 27 Total Bangun Persada TOTL Below In line 28 AKR Corporindo AKRA In line In line 29 Harum Energy HRUM In line In line 30 Gudang Garam GGRM 1,743 1, In line 1,209 1, In line 31 Astra International ASII 4,660 4, In line 4,647 4, In line 32 Timah TINS In line In line 33 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Above In line 34 Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP Below Below 35 Wijaya Karya WIKA In line Below 36 BW Plantation BWPT Below Below 37 Xl Axiata EXCL 1,178 1, In line Below 38 Cardig Aero Service CASS In line Below 39 Bank Jabar Banten BJBR In line Below 40 Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 1,208 1, Below 1,000 1, Below 41 Gozco Plantations GZCO Below Below 42 Surya Citra Media SCMA Below Below 43 Bank Central Asia BBCA 2,819 3, Below 2,304 2, Below 44 Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA Below Below 45 Bank Bukopin BBKP Below Below 46 Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP Below Below 47 Bukit Asam PTBA 1,004 1, Below 871 1, Below 48 Aneka Tambang ANTM Below Below 49 Nippon Sari Corporindo ROTI Below Below 50 Adaro Energy* ADRO Below Below 51 Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA Below Below 52 PP London Sumatra LSIP Below Below 53 Astra Agro Lestari AALI Below Below 54 Bayan Resources* BYAN Below Below 55 Adhi Karya ADHI Below Below 56 Vale Indonesia* INCO Below Below 57 Sampoerna Agro SGRO Below Below 58 Garuda Indonesia* GIAA (7) 7 (58.3) Below (11) 12 (161.0) Below 59 Delta Dunia Makmur DOID Below (96) 19 na Below Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Construction, Toll Road ext 3601 Irwan Budiarto Research Analyst Oil and Gas ext 3606 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Analyst ext 3603 Stifanus Sulistyo Small cap Research Analyst ext 3611 Isna Alfiathi Research Executive ext 3607 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Anthony Alexander Construction Research Analyst ext 3613 Zefanya Angeline Research Associate ext 3612 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

12 IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES This material was produced by Bahana Securities, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by Enclave Capital LLC. and elsewhere in the world by Bahana or an authorized affiliate of Bahana (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by Bahana, the Affiliates ). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of Bahana or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which Bahana or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of Bahana or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. 1. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report. 2. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months. 3. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. 4. However, one or more of Bahana or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. 5. As of the publication of this report Bahana does not make a market in the subject securities. 6. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Enclave Capital LLC. is distributing this document in the United States of America. Bahana Securities accepts responsibility for its contents. Any US customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so only by contacting a representative of Enclave Capital LLC. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 12