PV Solar Electricity A Future Major Technology Semicon 2007 Invest in Germany Executive Luncheon July 17 th, 2007 Moscone Center West, San Francisco Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG Siemensstr. 100 63755 Alzenau Phone: +49 6023 92 6679 Fax: +49 6023 92 6560 email: Winfried_Hoffmann@amat.com www.appliedmaterials.com
Applied Materials Overview Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology to improve the way people live Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) $9,868 Million Worldwide Employees Approx. 14,000 Worldwide Locations 18 Countries Solar Business Group Power $/W Area $/m² 2
European Photovoltaic Industry Association European Renewable Energy Council Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft (German Solar Industry Association) 110 members of the PV Solar Electricity Industry 600 members of the Solar Thermal and PV Solar Electricity Industry President Director President 3
World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation Market Size in MWp 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 40 % growth annually 63% 18% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Off-Grid & Consumer on-grid Source: EPIA & own estimates 4
European Market Support Programs Country Germany Italy Feed-in law Tariff Duration [ ct/kwh] [a] 38 49 20 BIPV + 5ct 36 49 20 Cap [MW] - 1,200 yearly market [MW] 2006 2005 (est.) 750 750 5 12 Portugal 31 45 150 1 1 Spain France Greece Other countries 22 41 30-40 BIPV + 15-25 40 50 25 20 20 400 - Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005) 20 5 1 63 12 1 Source: BSW, EPIA (2007) 5
Development of the German PV-market 1991: Electricity Feed-In Act Right of (1) of grid access (2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 ct per kwh) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources 600 Act (EEG) Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 ct per kwh 750 750 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 total installed PV-power in MWp 1400 1991-1995: 1,000 Roofs Program 3 3 3 3 4 7 12 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 annually installed PV power in MWp 12 40 1999-2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loans for 300 MWp 78 80 150 total installed PV power in MWp 1200 2004: 1000 Amendment to EEG 800 Feed-in tariff of 600 45.7-62.4 ct per kwh 400 200 0 Source: BSW (2007) 6
PV Companies in Germany I Source: BSW (2007) 7
PV Companies in Germany II Source: BSW (2007) 8
German PV Production is growing fast In 2006 German solar cell production grew by 50%, Japan by 10% Germany has the highest density of PV producer worldwide [MW] 300 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 Annual Growth of Solar Cell Production in Germany, Japan, USA 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 D J US In 2007 and 2008 another 15 PV factories are planned with investments of about 1 billion on all steps of the value chain Growing turnover in foreign countries of German PV companies: about 1 billion in 2006 Source: BSW (2007) 9
Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE 10
Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices Photovoltaics Retail prices private and small business Large power consuming industries /kwh 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 900 h/a: 0,60 /kwh 1800 h/a: 0,30 /kwh 0,0 market support programs necessary: 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH 11
Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Range of Electricity Prices in California /kwh Summer 31,92 $ct/kwh 30 60 Winter 26,78 summer 20 20,64 21,42 Standard 40 10 20 6,35 winter 0 6 12 18 24 hours 0 hours 0 6 12 18 24 Source: public information TEPCO (left) data from Alison Hyde, BSW (right) 12
Different World PV Market Projections until 2010 MW 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 LBBW (PV Market Model Version 2.0, LBBW Research, Febr. 2007) EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario, PV Med Athens, Apr. 2007) EPIA (Policy driven Estimate, PV Med, Athens, Apr, 2007) Sarasin (Report Solar Energy, Dec. 2006) 1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 13
Price Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules 100 History 10,0 Forecast $/Wp module price 10 20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume $/Wp module price 1,0 1 1 10 100 1000 10000 MWp accumulated experience factor 15% 18% 1.8 GWp/a 2005 6 GWp/a 2010 70 GWp/a 2020 340 GWp/a 2030 0,1 1 10 100 1.000 10.000 Source: Strategies Unlimited & own estimates GWp accumulated 14
Future Growth Forecast of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GW and bn turnover 1.000 5% 10.000 10% PV Power installed, GWp/a 100 10 35% 30% 25% Range depending on experience factor (15% - 18%) 1.000 100 10 PV Market, billion /a 1 Source: pricedata from Fig 14 Growth figures own estimates 40% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 year 1 15
The four main technology routes Crystalline Silicon (wafer based) Thin Film: a-si, micromorph, II-VI compound III V Compounds (GaAs) New Concepts 16 16
c-si Technology 2000 2010 2020 wafer [µm] 300 180 100 kerf loss [µm] 250 200 150 cell efficiency [%] 14-17 17-22 19-24 % module long term stable, low cost/m² technology In the long run integrated manufacturing of ultrathin wafers (100 µm or less) and subsequent cell and laminating processes will drive factory efficiencies and effectiveness. Source: EPIA & own estimates 17
Development of c-si and TF / New Concepts Share and Annual Silicon Consumption 100 800 Relative market share c-si [%] Silicon consumption [g/wp] 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Scenario 1 S 1 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Annual Silicon consumption [1000t/a] 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Source: EPIA & own estimates 18
Thin Film Technologies a) Low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%) - deposition area: 0,6 1,4 3 5 10 m² - utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI) - creation of semitransparency by thin-layers - flexible solar cells ( web coaters) b) Low cost (price) per Wp - ASI/µc-Si and II VI compound (CIS, CTS) - efficiency from 8 12 % today up to 10 15 % in 2010 and 14 20 % in 2030 Source: EPIA & own estimates 19
Thin film: TFT Display Technology Development 5 4 in 2005 more than 500 production / R&D machines G7 Area [m²] 3 2 G5+ G6 G5 1 0 G4 G3 G3+ G1 G2 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year Source: Applied Materials 20
Electricity generating cost [ ct/kwh] Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Fossile (coal, gas) Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) Today 2005 Tomorrow 2030 Day after tomorrow 2050 4-4.5 6-7 6.5-9 4 6 3.5 7 3.5-6 PV solar electricity (south/north) 20/40 5/10 3/6 = own estimates 21
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