The Western UAS Symposium Fall 2015 http://www.ttcus/comttcus/com @Techtrain Linkedin/Groups: Technology Training Corporation
DoD UAS Payloads Market Drivers, Restraints, and Future Trends UAS West, August 2015 Michael S. Blades Maj (Ret.) USAF Michael.Blades@frost.com
Overview Introduction Current DoD UAS payload spending/market size Drivers, restraints, and trends Predictions Q&A 3
Introduction 4
My Market Responsibilities UAS/UAV/RPA DoD Global Commercial platforms/subsystems/services US DoD Training & Simulation US DoD and Commercial Helicopters Space Launch and Satellites Robotics, UGS, UMS Other studies US DoD Night Vision and IR Devices COTS Aircraft 5
DoD UAS Payload Market Size 6
UAS Procurement Budget from 2016 PB 2,500 CAGR 0.7% 2,000 1,500 $ Mil llions 1,000 500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Platform procurement 50% 60% 7
UAS Payloads Budget from 2015 PB $ Mil llions 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Payload specific 60% of procurement Total 8
2015 PB DoD UAS Payload Budget Program 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total CAGR AF sensor RDT&E 148.4 158.0 152.8 185.6 221.4 220.4 224.3 1,310.8 7.1% Gorgon Stare 99.4 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 109.4-100.0% Hyperspectral 2.6 1.2 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 19.3 1.8% WAMI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.5 29.1 29.6 87.2 1.9% TSP 17.9 24.7 12.9 71 7.1 44 4.4 47 4.7 00 0.0 71.77-100.0% 0% StarLITE 6.2 5.6 5.3 5.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 31.7-10.1% Imaging and targeting 26.4 3.3 20.6 23.9 13.6 13.9 14.1 115.9-9.9% MP-RTIP 17.7 9.1 11.0 16.2 7.7 11.9 11.9 85.5-6.4% Dismount detect 41.1 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.3-100.0% ABSAA RQ-4 19.0 17.11 11.8 52.9 37.1 37.77 38.5 214.11 17.6% SIGINT RQ-4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9-100.0% MQ-1C Payload 173.9 97.8 26.9 57.4 55.5 36.4 0.0 447.9-100.0% Total 553.6 356.9 244.9 351.6 374.1 360.1 324.6 2,565.8-8.5% 9
2016 PB DoD UAS Payload Budget Program 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total CAGR AF sensor RDT&E 158.0 152.7 189.5 214.8 216.8 220.5 225.0 1,377.2 6.1% Gorgon Stare 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0-100.0% Hyperspectral 1.2 3.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.9 19.2 16.6% TSP 24.7 12.9 7.1 4.4 4.7 4.7 0.0 58.5-100.0% StarLITE 5.6 5.3 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 27.3-8.1% Imaging & targeting 9.7 20.2 19.5 15.8 15.7 14.0 14.3 109.1 6.6% MP-RTIP 14.1 10.9 16.1 7.7 11.8 11.8 12.0 84.5-2.7% ABSAA RQ-4 17.1 11.8 19.7 21.9 37.4 38.1 38.8 185.0 26.8% MQ-1C payload 97.8 25.3 106.2 45.3 20.3 3.4 3.5 301.9-42.6% MQ-9 EO/IR 01 0.1 10.7 04 0.4 05 0.5 05 0.5 05 0.5 05 0.5 13.2 41.2% MQ-9 SAR enhance 3.9 8.5 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 27.1-4.2% Multi-intel sensors 28.9 17.8 31.6 38.0 26.4 26.6 26.3 195.4-1.5% SIGINT Navy 0.00 0.00 5.6 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.8 24.1-15.8%* SAR/MTI Navy 0.0 0.0 3.7 5.2 6.4 3.2 1.0 19.5-27.3%* Data compression 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 10.8-15.9%* STUAS payload 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0-100.0% Total 372.9 271.9 372.3 320.7 318.2 303.7 304.9 2,233.8-3.3% *CAGR calculated fro applicable years 10
FY2014 DoD UAS Payload Prime Contracts by Program Program Obligations MP-RTIP $63,131,685.26 TSP $51,205,096.24 CSP $44,199,824.50 Starlite radar $40,851,059.92 Gorgon Stare $35,148,373.71 EISS $25,317,100.50 100 50 MTS-B $22,164,054.07 NanoSAR $12,685,791.00 MQ-8C MCAP (EW) $10,833,670.00 RQ-7 tech insertion (to include weaponization) $10,137,269.34 RQ-11 gimbal sensor payload $7,378,069.67 ScanEagle EO/IR $5,331,976.80 COBRA $4,228,767.00 ARGUS-IS (Gorgon Stare increment 2) $650,000.00 RQ-20 Puma gimbaled sensor payload $245,000.00 FLIR Quark $14,848.00 Grand Total $333,522,586.01 11
FY2014 DoD UAS Payload Contracts by Prime Contractor Program Obligations NORTHROP GRUMMAN $140,133,515.68 RAYTHEON COMPANY $66,363,878.57 BAE SYSTEMS, PLC $51,205,096.24 L-3 COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. $35,148,373.71 IMSAR, LLC $12,685,791.00 TEXTRON, INC. $10,137,269.34 AEROVIRONMENT, INC. $7,378,069.67 THE BOEING COMPANY $5,331,976.80 ARETE ASSOCIATES $4,228,767.00 LOCKHEED MARTIN $650,000.00 ALTAVIAN, INC. $245,000.00 PHYSICAL SCIENCES, INC. $14,848.00 Grand Total $333,522,586.01 12
UAS Payload Budget Notes Estimate close to $1.5 billion each year budgeted just for DoD Sensor prices are increasing due to increased complexity, capability, and miniaturization (SWaP-C) Platform prices seem to be stable and will likely decrease (3D printing, economies of scale) Sensors currently account for 50-60% of platform cost and that percentage should increase $$ Platforms Time 13
UAS Payload Market Drivers, Restraints, and Trends 14
Market Drivers Insatiable demand for 24/7, real-time ISR data HD FMV Advanced SIGINT processing EW ASW LIDAR A2/AD Adversary access to anti-air weapons, asymmetric focus Low observable radar technologies advancing Passive vs. active Operation w/o GPS Armed UAS Restrictions relaxed Precision guided weapons Chinese/global competition Global military interest 15
Market Restraints Budget constraints Data link capabilities Data transfer amounts outpacing link bandwidth Encryption requirements/anti-jamming needs Interoperability still a hurdle Standardization (links, encryption, C2) Processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) cannot keep up with data collection capabilities SWaP-C 16
General Market Trends MUM-T AH-64 and MQ-1C/RQ-7 P-8 and MQ-4C LRSB? Plug-and-play/modularity Ease of maintenance Hot swap Reduce logistical tail Sensor Open Systems Architecture (SOSA) Easier upgrades More competition will lower prices Sensor packages, or appliques, for converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned aircraft Rotary and fixed wing Platform agnostic 17
Sensor Payload Trends Smaller sensors (SWAP-C) Controp MicroSTAMP Trend toward personal UAS (Black Hornet) Platform agnostic multi-mission sensor pods Lockheed Martin Legion Pod Logos Technologies Hermes Force protection applications Distributed control of sensors (e.g., OSRVT) Hostile fire detection sensors (Serenity) Wide area surveillance (Gorgon Stare, Triclops, Corvus Eye 1500) SBIRS Multi-Mission Electro-Optical Sensor System (Army) Vertical Take Off and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV) Passive Acoustic Sensing and Magnetic Anomaly Detection ti for Anti- Submarine Warfare (ASW) (Navy) 18
Munition Payload Trends Everybody wants a UCAV Poland and Germany expressly seeking armed drones for military Europe and India actively engaged g UCAV programs China, Israel, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and South Africa are all known to have developed and tested indigenous armed UAVs Turkey fitting Bozok laser guided missile to Anka Only the US, the UK, and Israel have used armed UASs in combat Terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas claim to have armed drones UASs as payloads (LMAMS) Increased use in tactical environments Provide flexibility Small, precision guided munitions development and testing Textron Fury Denel Impi (South Africa) Thales Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM), freefall variant Lockheed Shadow Hawk Tubitak SAGE Bozok (Turkey) 19
UAS Payload Predictions Sensor payloads will have multi-intelligence capabilities and be reconfigurable to operator needs Example: Wide area for search then switch to targeting and tracking for attack Payloads will fuse sensor information to: Provide specialized data that cannot be detected by one sensor Execute detect/sense-and-avoid operations Determine position and navigate in GPS denied environments Communicate/coordinate with other UASs for cooperative swarming (DARPA s CODE program) Allow for more autonomous operations Long range strike/surveillance UASs will need passive sensors that are stored internally/retractable or are conformal (for stealth) 20
UAS Payload Predictions (continued) Sensor payloads will increasingly include on-board algorithms/software that assist with PED Video filtering Computer vision Munitions/armament payloads will focus on small precision guided munitions to minimize collateral damage in urban/populous areas (e.g., brimstone) Combat aircraft, through MUM-T, will eventually launch LMAMS UASs will also launch LMAMS (LRS-B) Directed energy weapons (offense/defense) Several programs (GA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin) Investment and capabilities increasing rapidly 21
Takeaways Air superiority cannot be achieved without achieving cyber and spectrum superiority UASs and UAS payloads will need to be designed for denied airspace/communications/navigation Datalinks will require improvements in capacity AND encryption Industry must develop UAS payloads with commercial opportunities in mind 22
Questions? Contact: Michael.Blades@frost.com Office: 210-247-3833 Cell: 210-557-2080 Twitter: @MikeSBlades 23
SBIRS o Shock Hardened Laser Targeting System o http://www.afsbirsttr.com/topicprerelease/prereleaseprofile.aspx?pk=22901&qs=gridtopic_ aspx?pk=22901&qs=gridtopic page=5&gridtopic_sort=top_topic_no&gridtopic_sortasc=yes&pn=sbir Payloads http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/uas-isr/2015/03/02/uas- / / / / / / / sensors-courtney-cote/24279555/ http://www.uasvision.com/2011/11/25/us-air-force-wants-gunfire-detection- system-for-uas/ 24