Kentucky yield projections for biofuel feedstock crops Michael Bomford Community Research Service, Kentucky State University Land Grant Program
Governor s biofuel plan for 225 By 225, Kentucky will derive from biofuels 12 percent of its motor fuels demand (775 million gallons/year, which represents approximately 2 percent of Kentucky s current transportation fuels demand), while continuing to produce safe, abundant, and affordable food, feed and fiber. S. Beshear. 28. Intelligent Energy Choices for Kentucky s Future. http://www.energy.ky.gov/
Governor s biofuel plan for 225 775 million gallons Corn starch for 1 st generation ethanol Switchgrass and crop residues for 2 nd generation ethanol Canola and sunflower for biodiesel How will this affect Fossil fuel consumption? Land use? Goal: 775 million gallons of renewab transportation fuel by 225 Million gallons: Canola biodiesel, 17 Corn stover ethanol, 121 Switchgrass ethanol, 361 Corn ethanol, 186 S. Beshear. 28. Intelligent Energy Choices for Kentucky s Future. http://www.energy.ky.gov/
KY Plans to Increase Fossil Fuel Use S. Beshear. 28. Intelligent Energy Choices for Kentucky s Future. http://www.energy.ky.gov/
IEA: 3% growth Conflicting forecasts to 23 Neither predicts 4% growth in supply Increasing demand in developing world Uppsala University: 1% decline
KY Energy Consumption, 196-225 3 25 2 No change from 25 Trillion BTU 15 1 5 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 Data from DOE-EIA, 28
US Energy Consumption, 195-225 12 1 8 Energy consumption (EJ) 6 4 2 195 197 199 21 DOE-EIA
USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records KY Corn Yield, 195-29, Projected to 225 18 16 14 12 +48% 1984-29 4.8 4. 29-225 +21% 5. 4.5 3.9 3.4 bu/ac 1 8 2.8 2.2 ton/ ac 6 1.7 4 1.1 2.6 194 196 198 2 22 24
USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records US Corn Yield, 195-28, 25 Projected to 23 Yield (bu/ac) 2 15 1 25-23 +28% +5% 5 194 196 198 2 22 24
Fike et al. 26. Long term yield potential of switchgrass. Biomass & Bioenergy 3: 198-26. KY Switchgrass Yields (Princeton) 13.4 1.6 7.8 ton/ ac 5. Cave-in-Rock Shelter Alamo Kanlow Upland Cultivars Lowland Cultivars 2.2
Fike et al. 26. Long term yield potential of switchgrass. Biomass & Bioenergy 3: 198-26. Low-input switchgrass makes more efficient use of N, energy
USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records KY Hay Yield, 195-28, 3 2.5 2 Projected to 225 2.6 2.9 +13% ton/ac 1.5 1.5 194 196 198 2 22 24
USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records US Hay Yield, 195-28, Projected to 23 Yield (ton/ac) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 194 196 198 2 22 24-22%
USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records 2,5 2, Sunflower, 1975-28, Projected to 23 US Canola & Sunflower Yield Trend Yield (lb/ac) 1,5 1, 5 Yield (lb/ac) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Canola, 1991-28 Projected to 23 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 1% increase by 225.7-.8 t/ac 5 198 199 2 21 22 23 24
KY s 225 Plan for Dedicated Biofuel Feedstock Crops Feedstock Needed (1 6 ton) Yield (projected ton/ac) Area (1 6 ac) Proportion of KY Cropland (%) Corn 1.2 4.8.25 2.6 Switchgrass 4.4 6..73 7.7 Canola/ Sunflower 1. 1.6.63 6.6 Crop residue 1.5 - - Total 8.1 1.6 16.8 775 million gallons of biofuel 8% of KY s current petroleum use 3% of KY s current energy use 25-75% renewable Renewable contribution: < 2% US energy consumption was 2.8% lower in 28 than 27; petroleum consumption fell 6.4% (BP, 29)
Governor s vision: Crop shift Less 6 Hay Soybean 5 Winter wheat 4 Winter wheat More Switchgrass Corn Million acres 3 2 Soybean Canola Corn Switchgrass Hay Canola 1 27 225
Potential Problems Increase in corn/decrease in soybean More corn after corn More fertilizer needed, more disease, more pesticide, compromised yields Canola and sunflower Little track record in KY Both susceptible to S. sclerotiorum; proposed rotation will bring disease pressure Reduced hay, soybean, winter wheat Reduced availability of feed and food Half million acres of new cropland needed Lost biodiversity, soil quality
5 35 3 Per capita energy use (GJ/yr) 4 3 2 25 2 15 Per capita greenhouse gas emissions (t CO 2 equiv.) 1 1 5
Conclusions Governor s projected energy demand exceeds projections from established trends Energy consumption is more likely to level off or decline than to increase by 4% by 225 Governor s 225 biofuel plan Reduces fossil fuel demand by <2% (less than reduction achieved in 28) Requires 1.6 million acres of dedicated energy crops (17% of KY cropland) Requires.5 million acres of new cropland and reduces area available for existing non-corn crops
Contact: Michael Bomford 52-597-5752 Michael.Bomford@KYSU.edu Learn more: EnergyFarms.net Organic.KYSU.edu Thanks to Tony Silvernail John Rodgers Brian Geier Harold Benson Kimberley Holmes Robert Barney KSU Farm crew Post Carbon Institute