ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND FUTILITY OF FORECASTING Vaclav Smil Tokyo 2014
Marchetti s substitution model (1977)
Fisher-Pry model (1971) developed to study the market penetration (adoption) of new techniques (simple two-variable substitutions) Adoption tends to follow a logistic curve, market fraction (f ) of a new technique expressed as f/1-ff and plotted on a semi-log graph will appear as a straight line allowing apparently highly reliable forecasts A li d t t iti b Applied to energy transitions by Marchetti (1977), widely cited
Real R l world is far more complex The model is wrong Energy transition forecasts remain elusive
IMPERATIVES OF MODERN CIVILIZATION Since 2007 >50% of humanity living in cities Unprecedented population densities in megacities High average power densities of energy consumption Exceptionally high peak power densities (AC, traffic) All enabled primarily by fossil fuels produced with high power densities and delivered 24/7/365
Tk Tokyo anthropomass 6/h t/ha
Paris anthropomass 10 t/ha
Mongkok kanthropomass 20 t/ha
Ginza traffic, average power density 100 W/m 2
Tokyo University Hospital average power density 200 W/m 2
Tokyo skyscrapers peak power density 3,000 W/m 2
Mismatch of power densities
IEEJ : October 2014. All Rights N til, N Nautilus New Y York k 1954
GE electricity i forecast in 1974 New US capacity (%) 1975 1990 2000 Fossil fuel plants 40 0 0 Fission reactors 60 55 10 Fast breeders 0 45 90 FBR were to be introduced in 1982 and take rapidly over
NUCLEAR REALITIES IN 2014 NO commercial FBRs US LWRs 19% World share 12%
Thomas Edison with his favorite vehicle, 1905
EVs 2014 Total EVS 500,000 Global vehicle fleet 1,050,000,000 EV share 0.05 %
PERILS OF FORECASTING Scientific American in 1913 elevated sidewalks will solve city transportation problems because the vehicular and the pedestrian traffic will be then free to develop itself along its own lines
IEEJ : October 2014. All Rights
A century later... We have done the very opposite of the 1913 vision as we have raised our highways, some in massive, multiple, disorienting contortions with sidewalks buried deep beneath them.
... it may not get any better Aging populations Weak economic growth and recessions Stagnant t or declining i per capita energy consumption Concerns about global environmental change Affluent economies may have reached a temporary plateau to be followed by...? But it may not matter: well-being and energy use are poorly correlated
Japanese demographic transition
US energy use and happiness: limits of more
Energy use and subjective well-being http://www.thehappinessshow.com/happiestcountries.htm Level of subjective wellbeing 1. Puerto Rico 2. Mexico 3. Denmark 4. Colombia Average annual energy use in 2010 (GJ/capita) 100 70 160 35 10. Canada 390 13. Venezuela 110 15. USA 345 35. Italy 140 39. Japan 170
Wllb Well-being lessons Tongue-in-cheek: Japan needs to be more like Colombia, more happiness with less energy Seriously: We must question the energy escalator model of economic growth and social progress
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