Electric vehicles and battery technology. Sanjiv Tumkur, Head of Equity Research

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Transcription:

Electric vehicles and battery technology Sanjiv Tumkur, Head of Equity Research

Electric cars have been around for a long time Thomas Edison with his 1913 Baker Electric Automobile 1908 Studebaker Electric

Initially displaced by the success of the Ford Model T

Electric cars have evolved Toyota Prius Tesla Model S Nissan Leaf REVAi G-Wiz

Advantages of electric cars lack of exhaust emissions energy efficiency lower running costs (1) energy (2) maintenance instant power and torque

The battery revolution Average EV lithium-ion battery prices ($/kwh) 2010-17 1000 800 642 599 540 350 273 209 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual battery price survey. Price is an average of Battery EV and Plug-In Hybrid EV batteries, including both cell and battery pack costs. Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries

Barriers to adoption of electric cars style and range of options range anxiety (charging speed and availability of infrastructure) upfront cost (battery vs internal combustion engine/drivetrain) power (size vs energy density) battery life/degradation

The Gigafactory Photo: Tesla Motors. Tesla Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada started mass production in January 2017 across 4.9m square feet of space.

The auto industry is shifting Ford Focus Electric BMW i3s Mercedes EQ Concept+ Volkswagen E-Bugster

Alternative energy Source: Renewables 2017 Global Status Report Ren21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21 st Century

China and electric vehicles Battery electric vehicle registrations China versus the rest of the world 300 60.0% 250 50.0% Vehicles registered (in hundred thousands) 200 150 40.0% 30.0% 100 20.0% 50 10.0% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 China (LHS) Rest of World (LHS) China as % of World (RHS) 0.0% Source: Global EV Outlook 2017 - Two million and counting - Clean Energy Ministerial, International Energy Agency

Implications of new energy

Implications for sectors

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