Assessing sustainable biofuel potential in Sub-Saharan Africa IATA Alternative Fuel Symposium Vancouver, 17 th November 2017 Tjaša Bole-Rentel (WWF-SA) Based on work conducted by Dr Günther Fisher and Dr Sylvia Tramberend (IIASA) Research sponsored by
INTRODUCTION
International Aviation Total Fuel Burn (Mt) Context Aircraft fuel burn from international aviation, including potential replacement of jet fuel with alternative fuels (ICAO, 2016) Baseline including Fleet Renewal Contribution of Technology Improvements Contribution of Improved ATM and infrastructure Use Replacement by Alternative Fuels Illustrative Case Potential demand for biojet by 2040: 400 Mt (= approx 490 billion l) Current global biofuel production: 133 billion l Potential contribution of fuel burn reduction scenarios Potential contribution of alternative fuels to petroleum-based jet fuel replacement ANALYSIS YEAR Dashed line represents 100% replacement of conventional jet fuel with alternative fuel by 2050 3
Context Africa, and particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, is seen as one of the major expansion areas for the production of biofuel feedstock. The importance of taking a system view of biomass for energy development. The sustainability of large scale biofuel supply depends on available resources for the production of biomass feedstock in the context of future demand for food, water resources and the need to safeguard natural environments. 4
Aims and Objectives We aim for an estimation of current and future sustainable biofuel potentials for Sub- Saharan Africa in accordance with the principles of the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) for the following categories of biofuel feedstock: 1. Land-based energy crops 2. Crop residues TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL OF LAND-BASED ENERGY CROPS, WE MUST: 1. Estimate the amount of land that is available for feedstock production 2. Pick the crop that would deliver the highest energy yield 5
APROACH TO POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT
Land Resources & Agro-ecological Zoning FAO and IIASA have developed a spatial analysis system that enables rational land-use planning on the basis of an inventory of land resources and evaluation of biophysical limitations and production potentials of land. GAEZ spatial databases provide: Spatial distribution of current land use/cover in Sub-Saharan Africa consistent with FAO cropland statistics and remotely sensed data. Inventory of protected areas & areas of high value for the environment and biodiversity Climate of 5 arcminute resolution of current (1981-2010) and projections for future (2011-2090) conditions Soil attributes and terrain/slope conditions For more information see (www.gaez.iiasa.ac.at) and (www.fao.org/nr/gaez/en/) Land productivity assessment for food crops and biofuel feedstocks 7
The RSB Principles 1. Legality 7. Conservation 2. Planning, monitoring & Continuous Improvement 8. Soil 3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 9. Water 4. Human & Labour Rights 10. Air Quality 5. Rural and Social Development 11. Use of Technology, Inputs & Management of Waste 6. Local Food Security 12. Land Rights @RSB_ORG 8
Exclusion layers: Forest, Cropland, Grazing Land, Environment CROPLAND FOREST FOREST Percentage none < 5% 5-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100 GRAZING LAND ADDITIONAL PROTECTED AREAS 9
RESULTS
Estimation of (current) REMAIN land LAND EXTENTS (MIO KM2) TOTAL LAND 2010 24.27 NO-GO AREAS Exclusion layer FOOD Cropland for food -2.35 Exclusion layer FOREST -6.90 Exclusion layer ENVIRONMENT + Grazing -3.89 Exclusion SPARSELY VEGETATED and BARE LAND -5.62 LAND CONSIDERED FOR BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCK PRODUCTION 5.5 23% TOTAL LAND 11
Intensity and spatial distribution of REMAIN land in 2010 Percentage of REMAIN land in 2010: The map shows the percentage of land in each 5 arcmin grid cell assessed as REMAIN land, based on land use, protected areas, additional exclusion layers and ruminant livestock distribution in 2010. 12
Distribution of REMAIN land per sub-region Total land (mio km2) REMAIN land 2010 (mio km2) Share of total REMAIN land 1 2 3 4 5 Eastern Africa 3.56 1.04 19% Central Africa 5.33 1.15 21% Southern Africa 4.74 1.43 26% Sudano-Sahelian A. 8.52 1.49 27% Gulf of Guinea 2.10 0.39 7% SSAF 24.27 5.50 100% Source: WDPA, PPF, GLWD, IBAT, Mining-Guidelines and own analysis 13
Changes in future availability of REMAIN land Gulf of Guinea Sudano-Sahelian A. Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 Current (2010) Scenario SC1 (2050) Scenario SC2 (2050) Thousands km2 Source: WDPA, PPF, GLWD, IBAT, Mining-Guidelines and own analysis 14
Biofuel feedstock selection 1 st generation biofuel production chains 1 st generation biofuel production chains 2 nd generation biofuel production chains BIODIESEL Solaris Jatropha Oil palm Soybean Camelina BIOETHANOL Sugarcane Maize (grain + stover) Sweet sorghum Cassava Triticale LIGNOCELLULOSIC ETHANOL Miscanthus Crop residues UMBRELLA CROP Selects the best biofuel feedstock in terms of biofuel energy output and thereby defines an upper technical potential. 15
Current potential for umbrella crops with max energy yield and min 60% GHG saving (in PJ) Very Suitable And Suitable Land Sugarcane Oilpalm Miscanthus Jatropha Solaris Sweet Sorghum Total EASTERN AFRICA 248.90 37.50 673.00 0.10 959.70 CENTRAL AFRICA 492.60 910.10 755.90 11.30 2 169.90 SOUTHERN AFRICA 0.20 509.60 0.60 510.80 SUDANO-SAHELIAN A. 26.20 241.30 0.70 268.10 GULF OF GUINEA 113.00 296.40 561.30 0.10 970.90 GRAND TOTAL 880.90 1 244.00 2 741.10 12.20 0.60 4 879.40 Source: WDPA, PPF, GLWD, IBAT, Mining-Guidelines and own analysis 16
Current potential for umbrella crops with max energy yield and min 60% GHG saving (in PJ) Very Suitable + Suitable + Moderately Suitable Sugarcane Oilpalm Miscanthus Jatropha Solaris Sweet Sorghum Total EASTERN AFRICA 294.10 44.90 1 291.30 6.00 1 636.10 CENTRAL AFRICA 895.90 1 435.90 3 651.00 131.00 6 114.20 SOUTHERN AFRICA 0.20 976.10 2.90 0.80 980.40 SUDANO-SAHELIAN A. 27.00 712.50 29.60 769.00 GULF OF GUINEA 167.00 430.30 1 640.50 2.10 2 239.90 GRAND TOTAL 1 384.20 1 911.20 8 271.40 171.60 0.80 11 739.80 Source: WDPA, PPF, GLWD, IBAT, Mining-Guidelines and own analysis 17
Future (2050) potential for umbrella crops with max energy yield and min 60% GHG saving (SSP2 + RCP 6.0) Very Suitable + Suitable Sugarcane Oilpalm Miscanthus Jatropha Solaris Sweet Sorghum Total EASTERN AFRICA 99.90 91.40 319.30 510.60 CENTRAL AFRICA 45.00 751.80 638.50 9.70 1444.80 SOUTHERN AFRICA 0.60 288.10 13.40 22.70 324.80 SUDANO-SAHELIAN A. 0.30 196.80 15.00 212.20 GULF OF GUINEA 4.10 77.70 153.60 235.40 GRAND TOTAL 149.90 920.90 1596.60 9.70 13.40 37.70 2728.10 Source: WDPA, PPF, GLWD, IBAT, Mining-Guidelines and own analysis 18
Future (2050) potential for umbrella crops with max energy yield and min 60% GHG saving (SSP2 + RCP 6.0) Future Potential Relative to Current Potential (VS+S) Sugarcane Oilpalm Miscanthus Jatropha Solaris Sweet Sorghum Total EASTERN AFRICA -60% 144% -53% -100% -47% CENTRAL AFRICA -91% -17% -16% -14% -33% SOUTHERN AFRICA 200% -43% 2 133% 100% -36% SUDANO-SAHELIAN A. -99% -18% -100% 100% -21% GULF OF GUINEA -96% -74% -73% -100% -76% GRAND TOTAL -83% -26% -42% -20% 2 133% 100% -44% Source: WDPA, PPF, GLWD, IBAT, Mining-Guidelines and own analysis 19
Technical potential from energy crops relative to global bio jet fuel demand DEMAND BY GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL AVIATION IN 2050 AS PROPOSED IN THE ICAO VISION FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS 285 MT/A SSA technical potential by 2050 from VS + S land 55 60 Mt/a % global demand that could be met by biofuel from feedstock grown on VS + S land ~20 % SSA technical potential by 2050 from VS + S + MS land 180-185 Mt/a % global demand that could be met by biofuel from feedstock grown on VS + S + MS land ~60 % 20
Technical potential relative to aviation fuel demand: South Africa DEMAND SAA (BY 2024) JHB ORT CURRENT JHB ORT 2050 ** SA TOTAL CURRENT SA TOTAL 2050 Fuel demand - mio l 500* 1 780 5 211 2 600 6 896 Fuel demand PJ 19 67 195 97 258 % that could be satisfied by all energy crops in SA *** 270-460% 80-130% 60-110% 50-90% 50-80% *biofuel **assumed 3% annual growth for jet fuel demand ***from VS+S+MS land in SC1 (lower bound) and SC2 (upper bound) scenarios 21
MAIN MESSAGES
Main insights emerging from the modelling work There is potential for RSB-compliant biofuel based on energy crops in Sub- Saharan Africa, but it is limited and calls for the prioritisation of biomass among the competing uses. The potential for all crops increases substantially if we include moderately suitable areas, but this will increase the cost of production. Annual feedstock crops mostly cannot meet the strict RSB GHG criteria if dluc takes place, even under quite ambitious soil management assumptions. Perennial crops, can very often meet the strict GHG criteria. Ethanol pathways are usually more productive (in terms of MJ/ha) than vegetable oil based biofuel chains. The potential for solaris and sweet sorghum increases over time, while potential for other crops decreases. Miscanthus is showing the largest potential, suggesting that the long-term future of crop-based biofuels is lignocellulosic. Risk of invasiveness. Local value chains to achieve required GHG emission savings. 23
ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS
Framework for identifying potential of new emerging crops Support optimisation of land use for energy production while addressing sustainability concerns Develop future scenarios by varying parameters on diet / crop yields / other Identify bright spots for biofuel production Identify potential within certain radius of a specific location (i.e. aviation hub) 25
Best RSB-compliant biodiesel feedstocks on REMAIN land (current) 26
Bright spots of biofuel potentials from REMAIN land: Cumulative biodiesel potential (in TJ) in a radius of 100 km 27
Best RSB-compliant bioethanol feedstocks on REMAIN land (current) 28
Bright spots of biofuel potentials from REMAIN land: Cumulative bioethanol potential (in TJ) in a radius of 100 km 29
Intensity and spatial distribution of lignocellulosic crop residues in 2010 (in 1000 t dry matter) 30
Assessing potential in your region This same approach can be applied to other regions of the world. We can build a picture of the amount of RSB-certified biofuel that can be produced globally. Looking beyond current production to future climate change and human development scenarios. Facilitating investment and long-term planning as well as protecting the planet. WWF and RSB are looking for partners to make this happen. 31
Thank you www.iiasa.ac.at www.panda.org www.rsb.org tbole@wwf.org.za Rolf.hogan@rsb.org