US Economic Indicators: Durable Goods Orders & Shipments

US Economic Indicators: Durable Goods Orders & Shipments April 27, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Durable Goods Orders & Shipments 3 Nondefense Capital Goods Orders & Shipments 4 New Orders by Major Industries 5 Machinery Orders 6-8 Unfilled Orders 9 April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

4. 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 Figure 1. Durable Goods Orders & Shipments DURABLE GOODS ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS (trillion dollars, saar) Orders Shipments 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4. 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 DURABLE GOODS ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS EXCLUDING TRANSPORTATION (trillion dollars, saar) Orders Shipments 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1.3.9.8 NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS EXCLUDING AIRCRAFT (trillion dollars, saar) Orders Shipments.9.8.7.7.6.6.5 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5 Page 3 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

Figure 2. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders & Shipments NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS EXCLUDING AIRCRAFT (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) - - - - - - -8 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS SHIPMENTS EXCLUDING AIRCRAFT (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) -8 3 1 1-1 -1 - - -3-3 - - -5 5 3 1-1 - -3 - -5 - -7-8 -9 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS EXPORTS EXCLUDING AIRCRAFT (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5 5 3 1-1 - -3 - -5 - -7-8 -9 Page 4 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

35 3 25 15 1 5 Figure 3. NEW ORDERS Primary Metals New Orders by Major Industries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 15 1 13 1 11 1 9 8 8 Fabricated Metal Products Motor Vehicles & Parts 7 5 3 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 1 45 Nondefense Aircraft & Parts 8 Machinery 35 3 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-55 5 5 45 35 Computers & Electronic Products All Other Durable Goods 45 3 35 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 5 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

Machinery Orders Figure 4. US MACHINERY ORDERS & SHIPMENTS Construction Machinery Industrial Machinery 8 7 Orders Shipments 5 3 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 44 5 Farm Machinery Metalworking Machinery 41 38 35 32 29 3 26 23 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 17 65 9 55 5 45 Mining, Oilfield & Gas Machinery Turbines, Generators, and Other Power Transmission Equipment 8 7 35 3 5 25 15 1 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3 1 Page 6 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

73 68 63 58 53 48 Figure 5. US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES Machinery (39.8) Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components (125.) Computers & Electronic Products (29.1) Machinery Orders Motor Vehicles & Parts (693.) All Other Durable Goods (478.2) 73 68 63 58 53 48 43 38 33 28 23 18 13 8 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 43 38 33 28 23 18 13 8 Figure 6. US MACHINERY ORDERS Construction (29.5) Industrial (35.1) Metalworking (38.6) 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Page 7 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

1 8 Figure 7. Machinery Orders US MACHINERY ORDERS Turbines, Generators, and Other Power Transmission (49.5) Ventilation, Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (48.2) Material Handling (36.2) Mining, Oil & Gas Field (13.1) 1 8 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 13 Figure 8. US MACHINERY ORDERS 1 13 1 1 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 5 Construction + Farm + Mining (79.7) Industrial + Metalworking + Material Handling (11.) 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 5 Page 8 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

Unfilled Orders 1.3 1.2 1.1 Figure 9. UNFILLED DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (trillion dollars, sa) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. 1..9.9.8.8.7.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 Total (1.2) Excluding Defense (1.) Excluding Defense & Civilian Aircraft (.4) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Census Bureau..6.5.4.3.2.1 1 13 Figure 1. US MACHINERY ORDERS 1 13 1 1 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 5 Construction + Farm + Mining (79.7) Industrial + Metalworking + Material Handling (11.) 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 5 Page 9 / April 27, 18 / Durable Goods Orders & Shipments www.

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