Recent Developments in International Seaborne Trade and Maritime Transport

Recent Developments in International Seaborne Trade and Maritime Transport IFSPA, Hong Kong, 3-5 June 2013 Dr. Vincent F. Valentine Officer-in-Charge, Transport Section Division on Technology and Logistics

Research UNCTAD Intergovernmental Technical assistance and capacity building

The OECD Industrial Production Index and indices for world GDP, world merchandise trade and world seaborne trade (1975 2012) (1990 = 100) Source: UNCTAD secretariat

15 per cent annual growth Elasticity Trade/GDP 10 Exports 5 GDP 0 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010-5 -10 Exports = 2.5 GDP -15 Source: UNCTAD

For a country s GDP to grow, e.g., 5% trade needs to grow 7 12%

International Seaborne trade in Cargo ton-miles

International Seaborne Trade by cargo type, selected years (Millions of tons loaded) Year Oil trade Gas trade Five main dry bulks Other dry cargoes All cargoes 1999 9 249 456 6 046 11 191 26 942 2000 9 652 490 6 845 13 379 30 366 2001 9 390 498 7 100 12 903 29 891 2002 9 144 527 7 416 13 098 30 185 2003 9 715 559 7 710 13 966 31 950 2004 10 430 596 8 601 14 642 34 269 2005 10 727 608 9 035 15 235 35 605 2006 11 032 706 9 804 16 491 38 033 2007 10 966 790 10 449 17 078 39 283 2008 11 166 846 10 895 17 357 40 264 2009 10 501 840 11 207 15 705 38 253 2010 11 018 1 041 12 609 17 564 42 232 2011 11 206 1 069 13 264 18 743 44 282 2012 (e) 11 472 1 076 14 137 19 476 46 161 Total miles for all cargo forecast to grow by over 4% in 2013 RMT 2012 and RMT 2013 forthcoming based on Clarkson Research Services e: estimated ton= metric ton, 1000 kg

Baltic Dry Index 2005-2013 11 000 10 500 10 000 9 500 9 000 8 500 8 000 7 500 7 000 6 500 6 000 5 500 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 10 844 819 2005-05 2005-08 2005-11 2006-02 2006-05 2006-08 2006-11 2007-02 2007-05 2007-08 2007-11 2008-02 2008-05 2008-08 2008-11 2009-02 2009-05 2009-08 2009-11 2010-02 2010-05 2010-08 2010-11 2011-02 2011-05 2011-08 2011-11 2012-02 2012-05 2012-08 2012-11 2013-02 2013-05

Average Daily Earnings of Bulker Vessels 2003-2013 ($ per day) 210 000 200 000 190 000 201 136 180 000 170 000 160 000 150 000 140 000 130 000 120 000 110 000 100 000 90 000 80 000 70 000 Panamax Capsize Supramax 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 3 884 2003-05 2003-09 2004-01 2004-05 2004-09 2005-01 2005-05 2005-09 2006-01 2006-05 2006-09 2007-01 2007-05 2007-09 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 Source: Clarkson Shipping Intelligence Network Timeseries

Transport costs as a % of freight rates UNCTAD Secretariat

Growth of demand and supply in container shipping, 2000 2012 (Annual growth rates) 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Demand Supply -5.0-10.0-15.0

Trade in intermediate goods Source: UNCTAD TD/B/C.I/16, 2011

Tanker market summary: clean and dirty spot rates, 2012 2013 (Worldscale) Vessel type Routes 2011 2012 Percentage 2013 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec change Dec 2012/ Jan Feb Mar Apr Dec 2011 VLCC/ULCC (200,000 dwt+) Persian Gulf Japan 59 67 52 59 63 63 44 36 35 38 37 41 48-18.6% 43 33 34 Persian Gulf Republic of Korea 56 61 51 58 58 55 41 33 34 38 35 40 46-17.9% 41 31 33 Persian Gulf Caribbean/East Coast of North America 37 40 34 35 42 39 30 24 23 25 23 27 28-24.3% 26 17 18 West Africa - China 58 61 55 59 62 60 44 37 36 40 41 49 47-19.0% 43 34 36 Suezmax (100,000 160,000 dwt) West Africa North-West Europe 86 91 77 87 68 81 70 65 57 56 59 58 70-18.6% 62 57 59 West Africa Caribbean/East Coast of North America 83 85 75 84 65 81 66 63 56 55 57 56 65-21.7% 59 52 57 Mediterranean Mediterranean 86 98 86 84 73 93 85 69 64 56 62 66 67-22.1% 70 66 74 Aframax (70,000 100,000 dwt) North-West Europe North-West Europe 122 111 93 95 99 98 94 89 87 84 89 82 93-23.8% 88 87 94 North-West Europe Caribbean/ East Coast of North America.. 119 99.... 99.......... 75 80.... 85 Caribbean Caribbean/East Coast of North America 112 118 129 112 131 115 105 94 94 89 91 110 91-18.8% 84 96 102 Mediterranean Mediterranean 130 105 82 104 94 87 100 95 82 76 78 79 85-34.6% 82 85 86 Mediterranean North-West Europe 118 97 82 105 91 85 92 100 81 75 77 77 80-32.2% 84 86 90 Indonesia Far East 104 100 90 60 85 82 86 43 90 98 94 92 90-13.5% 83 74 68 Panamax (40,000-70,000 dwt) Mediterranean Mediterranean 153 147 157 147 140 125 120 120.. 116.. 154 168 9.8% 135 145 115 Mediterranean Caribbean/East Coast of North America 121 124 121 118 127 137 127 105 111 114 134 126 160 32.2% 98 100 104 Caribbean East Coast of North America/Gulf of Mexico 133 113 148 145 131 151 141 102.. 118 105 130 156 17.3% 115 133 138 All clean tankers 70,000 80,000 dwt Persian Gulf Japan 105 100 86 84 91 88 91 99 104 96 107 122 116 10.5% 88 81 93 50,000 60,000 dwt Persian Gulf Japan 119 107 101 100 117 114 105 125 120 116 114 133 144 21.0% 109 97 124 35,000 50,000 dwt Caribbean East Coast of North America/Gulf of Mexico 155 150 165 152 155 123.. 100 108 105 117 164 162 4.5% 120 126 60 25,000 35,000 dwt Singapore East Asia.... 150 155 183 223.. 170.. 190 205 215 220 199 185 199

1. Leading Maritime Nations Korea and China 74% 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

Shipbuilding Nations 2012 Source: DRAFT UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2013 (forthcoming), based on data provided by Clarkson Research Services

2: Leading Maritime Nations Greece, Japan: 29% 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

Table 2.4 The 35 Countries and Territories with the Largest Owned Fleets (DWT) as at 1st January 2013 Number of Vessels Deadweight Tonnage Country or Territory of Ownership National Flag Foreign Flag c Total National Flag Foreign Flag c Total Foreign Flag c Total as a as % of Total % of World Greece 825 2 870 3 695 69 644 624 175 205 954 244 850 578 71.56 15.17 Japan 738 3 253 3 991 17 216 128 206 598 880 223 815 008 92.31 13.87 China 2 665 2 648 5 313 66 936 002 123 142 833 190 078 835 64.79 11.78 Germany 396 3 437 3 833 16 641 757 109 136 771 125 778 528 86.77 7.79 Korea, Republic of 764 812 1 576 16 624 445 58 471 361 75 095 806 77.86 4.65 Singapore 1 090 798 1 888 32 711 136 31 441 668 64 152 804 49.01 3.98 United States 768 1 175 1 943 8 671 669 49 606 395 58 278 064 85.12 3.61 United Kingdom 415 822 1 237 10 447 630 39 857 066 50 304 696 79.23 3.12 Norway 414 1 494 1 908 2 190 036 43 802 209 45 992 245 95.24 2.85 China, Taiwan Province of 102 712 814 3 311 133 40 948 712 44 259 845 92.52 2.74 Denmark 45 946 991 68 724 40 646 119 40 714 843 99.83 2.52 Bermuda 4 206 210 209 778 32 686 529 32 896 307 99.36 2.04 Turkey 645 935 1 580 9 619 689 19 470 911 29 090 600 66.93 1.80 Italy 673 211 884 19 097 635 6 245 330 25 342 964 24.64 1.57 China, Hong Kong SAR 269 297 566 15 768 670 8 556 599 24 325 269 35.18 1.51 India 584 158 742 15 063 983 7 377 303 22 441 287 32.87 1.39 United Arab Emirates 82 617 699 700 914 18 772 655 19 473 569 96.40 1.21 Russian Federation 1 195 532 1 727 5 495 653 13 888 598 19 384 251 71.65 1.20 Malaysia 472 142 614 9 520 599 7 593 951 17 114 550 44.37 1.06 Netherlands 757 450 1 207 6 100 843 10 571 723 16 672 566 63.41 1.03 Brazil 202 108 310 2 837 889 13 314 666 16 152 555 82.43 1.00 Switzerland 39 291 330 1 144 359 14 506 537 15 650 896 92.69 0.97 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 108 121 229 1 748 219 13 568 542 15 316 761 88.59 0.95 Indonesia 1 383 147 1 530 11 910 441 3 390 980 15 301 421 22.16 0.95 Cyprus 183 192 375 6 178 327 7 745 606 13 923 933 55.63 0.86 France 179 230 409 3 862 058 7 144 805 11 006 863 64.91 0.68 Canada 206 145 351 2 650 551 6 571 778 9 222 329 71.26 0.57 Monaco 126 126 9 157 769 9 157 769 100.00 0.57 Belgium 90 155 245 4 008 509 4 720 024 8 728 533 54.08 0.54 Viet Nam 758 83 841 6 422 675 1 540 097 7 962 772 19.34 0.49 Saudi Arabia 62 125 187 1 036 358 6 771 973 7 808 332 86.73 0.48 Kuwait 40 36 76 4 037 837 2 862 528 6 900 365 41.48 0.43 Sweden 114 225 339 1 323 946 5 120 753 6 444 699 79.46 0.40 Oman 3 31 34 5 332 6 133 802 6 139 134 99.91 0.38 Thailand 336 79 415 4 444 401 1 652 413 6 096 814 27.10 0.38 Total top 35 countries 16 606 24 609 41 215 377 651 950 1 148 223 839 1 525 875 789 75.25 94.55 Other Owners 2 655 2 522 5 177 29 703 524 52 879 452 82 582 976 64.03 5.12 Total of known country of ownership 19 261 27 131 46 392 407 355 474 1 201 103 291 1 608 458 765 74.67 99.67 Others, unknown country of ownership 730 5 297 140 World total 47 122 1 613 755 905 Source: DRAFT UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2013 (forthcoming), based on data provided by Clarkson Research Services

3: Leading Maritime Nations Panama, Liberia, Marshall Islands: 42% 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

Per cent of foreign flagged fleet (dwt) UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport, various issues

Major flags of registration January 2012 (UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2012) Source: DRAFT UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2013 (forthcoming), based on data provided by Clarkson Research Services

4: Leading Maritime Nations Denmark and Switzerland 30% 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

Source: Alphaliner. Data for May 2013

Source: Alphaliner. Data for May 2013

5: Leading Maritime Nations India, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan 94% 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

Ship Recycling 2012 Source: DRAFT UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2013 (forthcoming), based on data provided by Clarkson Research Services

6-8: Leading Maritime Nations Financial and other services: UK, Scandinavia 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

9: Leading Maritime Nations Philippines, Indonesia, 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

10: Leading Maritime Nations Hong Kong, Netherlands, Singapore, UAE: 44% 1. Building 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 5. Scrapping 6. Financing 7. Classification 8. Insurance services (P&I) 9. Seafarers 10. Container terminal operators

Source: Lloyd s List Intelligence 31 May 2013 Container Shipping

Source: Lloyd s List Intelligence 31 May 2013

Source: Lloyd s List Intelligence 31 May 2013

Source: Lloyd s List Intelligence 31 May 2013

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