FUTURE AND MOBILITY A GLIMPSE OF FUTURE TRANSPORTS VOLKSWAGEN AG KONZERNFORSCHUNG ANTRIEBE DR. MARTIN LOHRMANN KSLA WORKSHOP STOCKHOLM 26. AUGUST 2016
VOLKSWAGEN GROUP RESEARCH THE BRANDS OUR CUSTOMERS 2
VOLKSWAGEN GROUP RESEARCH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LOCATIONS BALLARD COOPERATION Vancouver, Kanada VOLKSWAGEN VARTA Microbattery/Ellwangen ERL ELECTRONIC RESEARCH LAB Belmont, California HEADQUARTER Wolfsburg CARNET Barcelona VTT Technical Representative Tokyo VRC Volkswagen Research Lab China Shanghai 3
VALUE CREATION IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IS UNDERGOING CHANGE Hydrogen Plug-In-Hybrid Climate change Car-Sharing Connected Car Digitalization Downsizing CO 2 -emissions Urbanization Sustainability E-mobility Battery technology Autonomous Driving Lithium-ion Major cities Peak Oil 4
CHALLENGES CO 2 -REGULATION Europe China USA CO 2 -emissions from new passenger cars 2020 95 g CO 2 /km premise 2025 78 CO 2 /km Draft: emissions from passenger cars (Phase IV) 2020 5 l/100km premise 2025 4 l/100km Greenhouse-Gas II 2020 125 g CO 2 /km premise 2025 87 g CO 2 /km 5
FUEL TRENDS FOR TRANSPORT business environment Total EU transport CO 2 emissions [t] politics -70% 2010 2050 Fuel consumption [l/100km] efficiency 2010 2050 Total transport mileage [km] mileage 2010 2050 fuel trends (1) Electrification of transport (2) CO 2 -reduced fuels for transport 6
FUEL TRENDS FOR PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT CASE STUDY: ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ROAD TRAFFIC IN THE EU* Energy consumption road traffic EU [Mtoe] 300 200 100 2010 2030 2050 Political target*: reduction of GHG-emissions of transport by 70% * 2011 EU WHITE PAPER: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system The use of fossil fuels for road traffic needs to be reduced to one third until 2050. electric mobility CO 2 -reduced fuels fossil fuels 7
FUEL TRENDS FOR PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT CASE STUDY: ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ROAD TRAFFIC IN THE EU* Energy consumption road traffic EU [Mtoe] 300 200 100 How much energy will be consumed by road transport in total? 2010 2030 2050 *based on data of IEA Mobility Modell, progtrans, World Transport reports 2012/2013, own consumptions? The use of fossil fuels for road traffic needs to be reduced to one third until 2050. (1) Electrification 50% of individual mobility will be covered electrically by 2050 (BEV + PHEV) (2) CO 2 -reduced fuels Amount of green fuels for transport will sevenfold by 2050. electric mobility CO 2 -reduced fuels fossil fuels 8
FUEL TRENDS FOR PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT CASE STUDY: ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ROAD TRAFFIC IN THE EU* Energy consumption road traffic EU [Mtoe] 300 200 100 2010 2030 2050 *based on data of IEA Mobility Modell, progtrans, World Transport reports 2012/2013, own consumptions The use of fossil fuels for road traffic needs to be reduced to one third until 2050. (1) Electrification 50% of individual mobility will be covered electrically by 2050 (BEV + PHEV) (2) CO 2 -reduced fuels Amount of green fuels for transport will sevenfold by 2050. electric mobility CO 2 -reduced fuels fossil fuels 9
E-GOLF TODAY Technical Data Maximum speed: Electric motor: Torque: Consumption, NEFZ: Electrical range (NEFZ): Energy content battery 140 km/h 85 kw 270 Nm 12.7 kwh/100 km 190 km 24.2 kwh 10
LITHIUM-ION BATTERY: ROADMAP FOR HIGH-ENERGY BATTERIES All-electric range in km ** 700 600 Conventional lithium-ion technology 500 400 300 200 190 km 260 Wh/L* 300 km 380 Wh/L* 100 * Energy density per cell ** Based on a battery with a cell volume of approx. 100 litres 2010 2020 2030 Timescale research level Group Research Powertrain research Energy Carriers K-GERAB/E Dr. Martin Lohrmann 11 11
BEYOND LITHIUM-ION BATTERY: SOLID STATE BATTERY All-electric range in km ** 700 600 500 400 300 Conventional lithium-ion technology 190 km 260 Wh/L* 300 km 380 Wh/L* 380 km 510 Wh/L* 500 km 650 Wh/L* 700 km 1000 Wh/L* Solid-state battery New battery technologies 200 100 * Energy density per cell ** Based on a battery with a cell volume of approx. 100 litres 2010 2020 2030 Timescale research level Group Research Powertrain research Energy Carriers K-GERAB/E Dr. Martin Lohrmann 12 12
CHALLENGES OF CHARGING Charging capacity HV-batteries with high energy content require higher charging capacities. Operation Economic efficiency of operation of charging stations Regenerative energy Further expansion of CO 2 -neutral mobility Charging infrastructure Extensive provision of charging stations Charging interface Worldwide standardization of the charging plug Charging comfort Automatic charging via induction Access charging station Standardized authentication and billing 13
HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR BEVS* ASSUMPTION: 5 % OR 30 % BEV IN 2030 Example: highway trip Influence of vehicle range Fast-charging stations (200kW) 30 % BEV: 103 Gasoline / Diesel Route without refueling Refueling at service area necessary 70 BEV (2030) current parking place per service area 5 % BEV: 14 DC charging stations Number of refueling operations is increasing + Individual demand adaption charging time ~15 minutes for 80% state-of-charge Stressing of the battery Connecting power from the grid for service areas of 2.5 MW for 5 % BEV and 20 MW for 30 % BEV in 2030 is required! * assuming 500km NEFZ-range in 2030 14
FUEL CELL Audi A7 Sportback h-tron quattro Volkswagen NMS HyMotion 15
HYMOTION4 TWO VEHICLE CONCEPTS WITH ONE FUEL-CELL SYSTEM FOURTH GENERATION OF FUEL CELL VEHICLES IN VOLKSWAGEN GROUP RESEARCH Volkswagen NMS HyMotion E-machine: 100 kw v max : 160 km/h 0-100 km/h: 12 sec Range: 420 km Battery: 1.1 kwh HyMotion 4 Performance: 80 kw Audi A7 Sportback h-tron quattro E-machine: 2 x 85 kw v max : 180 km/h 0-100 km/h: 8 sec Range: > 500 km Battery: 9.5 kwh 16
HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP (INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IEA) Based on the scenario results [ ], the market for passenger FCEVs could be fully sustainable 15 years after introduction of the first 10 000 FCEVs. [USD/km] Requirements Fuel/energy tax exemption No car and registration taxes Rapid market penetration supported by subsidies for customer, OEM and infrastructure Source: IEA 2015, Technology Roadmap, Hydrogen and Fuel Cells 17
MOBILITY SCENARIOS 2050 Share of vehicles or traction 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% McK ICE McK EV McK FCV IPCC 2100 Fraunhofer Medium Fraunhofer 450ppm Fraunhofer 400ppm IEA 2DS NRC efficiency only NRC PEV intensive NRC FCV intensive NRC CNG intensive WEC Freeway WEC Tollway Existing scenarios 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Batteries Hydrogen Fuels Fuels including hybridisation PHEV: 50% Battery, 50% Fuel Source: McKinsey & Company (2010), Palzer & Henning (2014), IPCC (2014), Schade et. Al. (2010), IEA (2012), NRC (2013), WEC (2011) Mean 18
ENERGY CARRIER TRENDS IN CARGO AND PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION Catenary Truck Diesel Hybrid Truck Battery / Fuel Cell City Bus CNG City Bus 19
FUEL TRENDS FOR PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT CASE STUDY: ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ROAD TRAFFIC IN THE EU* Energy consumption road traffic EU [Mtoe] 300 200 100 2010 2030 2050 *based on data of IEA Mobility Modell, progtrans, World Transport reports 2012/2013, own consumptions The use of fossil fuels for road traffic needs to be reduced to one third until 2050. (1) Electrification 50% of individual mobility will be covered electrically by 2050 (BEV + PHEV) (2) CO 2 -reduced fuels Amount of green fuels for transport will sevenfold by 2050. electric mobility CO 2 -reduced fuels fossil fuels 20
CO 2 -REDUCED FUELS CO 2 Combustion Photosynthesis Decomposition of biomass Conversion to fuel 21 21
CO 2 -REDUCED FUELS Biomass-to-Liquid Power-to- Liquid Ethanol Biomass Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) Biomethane Algae based fuels CO 2 / Light Powerto-Gas Green Electricity 22
CLASSIFICATION OF BIOFUELS AND THEIR COMPETITION Type Example No competition with Evolution pathway of biofuels Conversion/use of sugar, starch and oil Conversion of cellulose Conversion of cellulose from residues via algae/bacteria/yeast Green electricity as basis Modified photosynthesis with algae or bacteria Ethanol from sugar beets, wheat HVO** from rape seed Biomethane from grass silage Diesel from wood Ethanol from straw Biomethane from straw Diesel from residual wood Power-to-Fuel / E-Gas Ethanol food land use* biomass * Agricultural land ** HVO Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil 23
MODIFIED PHOTOSYNTHESIS WITH ALGAE OR BACTERIA Challenges biotechnology: Fuel production with limited cell growth Optimized metabolism for fuel Tolerance of the cells (e.g. salt, temperature) Cyanobacteria as miniaturised plant for direct fuel production Secretion of the fuel 24
Audi e-diesel/e-ethanol demonstration plant in Hobbs, New Mexico, USA Seite 25 Renewable fuels Audi e-gas project AUDI AG
OPTIONS FOR STORING AND USING GREEN ELECTRICITY Electricity H 2 H 2 Power plant H 2 storage H 2 filling station Fischer-Tropsch synthesis Electricity Electricity Electricity H 2 H 2 C x H y Charging station Grid Green electricity Electrolysis H 2 Diesel filling station Direct feeding CO 2 Methanation CH 4 CH 4 Power plant Methane storage / Natural gas network The question of future vehicle concepts can only be answered in context with future energy solutions of the energy sector. Natural gas filling station 26
Power-to-Gas: Audi e-gas plant Werlte (Germany) Quelle: EWE Netz Seite 27 Renewable fuels Audi e-gas project AUDI AG
Electrolysis & Methanisation Unit Seite 28 Renewable fuels Audi e-gas project AUDI AG
Technological highlights of the Audi e-gas plant World s first industrial power-to-gas plant Rated output of electrolysis: 6 MW Target: Intermittent operation, use of surplus renewable electricity World s largest methanation reactor (manufactured by MAN) e-gas production: max. approx. 1000 t p.a. Complex heat management with biogas plant Target: Overall efficiency ratio >70% Seite 29 Renewable fuels Audi e-gas project AUDI AG
POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR ICE Hybrid Energy (100 %) Conventional fuels Biofuels Electricity Short distance mobility REEV BEV Long distance mobility FCEV 2010 2020 2030 2040 30
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 31