Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations PSI Team SCAF Workshop 22 November 2010
UAV Design Considerations 1. Role 2. Design quality military / commercial? 3. Performance altitude, speed, endurance 4. Propulsion 5. Power source 6. Power requirements for flight & payload 7. Payload 8. Ground environment
UAV Role(s) Reconnaissance Communications Relay Earth Observation, remote prospecting Law Enforcement (Traffic, Border control, Agricultural monitoring) Offensive activities against Land/ maritime targets Air combat, electronic warfare. Any mix of the above!!
UAV Design military / commercial Military specifications arduous Military materials and components costly Design certification/ acceptance different Historic schedules long projects overtime/ cost etc Good commercial design reduces timescales, uses proven materials, components and may trade-off some performance for early fielding
UAV - Performance Performance Endurance >48 hours Speed ~150Kts maximum Altitude 40,00ft plus All of the above are inter-related and some performance attributes will be role dependent and large drivers of cost.
UAV Propulsion Air breathing Reciprocating Turbo-prop Jet Chemical (rocket) Electric Other propulsion nuclear or more exotic types ruled out on grounds of safety or immaturity. Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance
UAV Power requirements Battery (sustain and engine electric start) Payload with growth capability Compile equipment list with power drains Total + safety margin + growth
UAV Power sources Battery Generator Photo-voltaic, ~12% minimum efficiency Other sources nuclear, chemical etc are ruled out due to increased safety and certification issues. Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance
Photo-voltaic family
Photo-voltaic costs $/Watt 1000 100 y = 0.0672x 2-270.6x + 272432 R² = 1 10 Series1 Power (Series1) Poly. (Series1) 1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1
UAV Payload Mixed systems Data link Flight Control Sensors (Electro-optic, SAR etc) Communications Collision Avoidance Potential capacity for Defensive Aids /Weapons (internal bay) Satcom
UAV Ground environment Handling & other facilities Communications & control Mission planning Operator & Maintainer training Maintenance policy Operations & Mission Data collection & analysis Needed but excluded from this analysis
UAV Costing Considerations Handling & other facilities Communications & control Mission planning Operator & Maintainer training Maintenance policy Operations & Mission Data collection & analysis Needed but excluded from this analysis
PRICE Systems Team Option OTS Reconnaissance UAV
UAV Reconnaissance Option High altitude good commercial build OTS Payload off the shelf avionic (10KW max) Communications Relay Electro-optic (visible and dual band infra-red) Synthetic aperture radar Unused 250Kg capacity internal External standard wired hard points OTS Propulsion small jet turbine(150kts max) OTS Power (15KW capability for growth) thin film photo voltaic battery Not the place for cutting edge technologies
UAV Assumptions Lighter Than air (LTA) technology (Helium) Dry mass ~ 3.6 Tonnes With LTA ~200KGs Power requirements 15KW Propulsion SAFRAN TR60-5 (1200lbs thrust) Size ~ 16m diameter x 3m tall Usable area 640 sq metres, usable LTA volume 3290 cu metres Composite airframe Payload pack Expandable airframe
PRICE What could it look like? Picture courtesy www.freakingnews.com
Illustrative Mass Dispersion UAV Illustrative Mass KGs UAV power KGs Propulsion Airframe Payload Ballast Fuel
UAV OTS Payload EO/IR Weapons/ DASS Synthetic Aperture Radar (intermittent) Data Link Satellite Communications Navigation Communications Relay Flight Management System Anti-collision radar Power supplies/ filters
RESULTS
UAV Point Estimates Development 20M SEPM 75M Production 45M Total 140M
Results in round numbers 1,500,000 total hours UAV Acquisition Non Recurring costs 20M UPC (30 off) 1.47M 50% ile 147M, 7.5M standard deviation Project cost range 138M - 157M @ 10 & 90% confidence intervals
Cost Split
Cost Where the Activities Occur
Where the hours are spent