Indonesia Daily Focus Mimi Halimin +62-21-515-1140 mimi.halimin@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,906.1-0.2-2.0-2.1 MSCI EM 930.3-1.4-3.4-11.4 HANG SENG 24,975.3-1.0-7.6 7.2 KOSPI 2,040.3-0.1-1.2 1.7 FTSE 6,432.2-1.6-3.7-3.0 DJIA 17,776.9 0.5-0.5 4.6 NASDAQ 4,997.5 0.1-0.6 13.7 Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 15.5 2.5 18.3 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate 7.50 0-25 -25 3yr 7.90-2 -34 35 10yr 8.22-2 -54 16 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13,330.00-0.1-0.3 14.0 USD/KRW 1,130.20 0.3 0.6 11.7 USD/JPY 122.54 0.0-1.6 20.6 USD/CNY 6.21 0.1 0.1 0.1 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 52.3-0.4-10.7-45.4 Gold 1,155.3-1.3-1.6-12.4 Coal 61.8-1.0-0.6-25.4 Palm Oil 655.0-1.1-1.5-20.8 Rubber 125.4 0.0-10.7-10.8 Nickel 10,650.0-9.0-20.8-46.1 Copper 5,339.5-4.5-10.2-25.1 Tin 13,850.0-3.1-6.5-36.9 The best time is yet to come It seems that 2015 is still a challenging year for poultry players. A prolonged period of weak DOC prices and also a weakened rupiah still encumber this sector. One listed poultry company is PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN). As of July 6th, CPIN s share price had already fallen 24.5% YTD (vs. JCI s -5.9% YTD). After the sharp decline in share price, we haven t yet seen a recovery due in part to the below factors: CPIN s 1Q15 financial performance wasn t very encouraging. Although revenue grew 12.1% YoY, COGS also grew 11.5%. Profit for the quarter fell c.34.8% YoY. CPIN s business segments consist of feeds (c.75.4% of 1Q15 revenue), DOC (c.12.3% of 1Q15 revenue), processed chicken (c.9.7% of 1Q15 revenue) and other businesses (c.2.7% of 1Q15 revenue). Because the DOC segment s contribution is still small compared to the feeds segment, we do not think the weakening of DOC prices is a primary factor behind CPIN s discouraging financial performance. The big burden came from other operating expenses, which went up 7,107.9% YoY to IDR320.2bn due to losses from foreign currency exchange, as well as financing costs, which went up 93% to IDR122.9bn due to increased interest expenses on bank loans. As of March 31, 2015, CPIN had IDR7.5tr in bank loans, roughly 51% of which was in the US dollar. Therefore, the problem is the weakened rupiah, which continues to haunt the firm. Diversification through new business: Still a long way to go. To complement its business in foods (processed chicken), CPIN starts to expand this year into the beverages business via its Fiesta White Tea product. CPIN will build a IDR400bn packaged tea factory at Modern Cikande Industrial Estate in Banten. The factory is expected to reach completion next year with a capacity of c.40k bottles per hour. We feel this new business is still in its infancy compared to other players in the market. CPIN s share price vs. USD/IDR JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/14 800 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Local flashes BOLT: Garuda Metalindo revenue predicted stagnant. Manufacturer of various types of fasteners for automotive vehicles PT Garuda Metalindo Tbk (BOLT) predicted that this year revenue will increase slightly compared to 2014 in the range of IDR 900 billion to IDR 1 trillion. Bank Indonesia (BI) policy, which reduced down payment (DP) for motor vehicles allegedly not too help the company's performance. "The government's policy to lower the DP is very positive for our component supply. Until the end of the year there will be a positive relaxation although not significant," said President Director of Garuda Metalindo Hendra Widjaja. (Berita Satu) UNTR: Build power plant, UNTR give loan to its subsidiary. PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) more seriously to get into the power generation business. The Company will work on the power plant through its subsidiary, PT Energia Prima Nusantara (EPN). EPN stock is controlled by a subsidiary of UNTR, Pamapersada Nusantara (PAMA). In order to support this expansion, PAMA will provide loan facilities to EPN worth USD47.5 million. (Kontan) MYRX: Hanson will private placement of USD 250 million. PT Hanson International Tbk (MYRX) plans to issue new shares without pre-emptive rights (non-hmetd) or a private placement. The company's management expects to issue new shares amounting to 30% -35% or USD 200 million - USD 250 million in the second half of this year. President MYRX, Benny Tjokrosaputro said the private placement on process and in the early stages. The Company also has appointed Credit Suisse in this private placement plan. This private placement is expected to be completed in the near future. (Kontan) PWON: Pakuwon will not revise target even LTV loosened. During the first half of 2015, PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) managed to realize the target of marketing sales of 58.8%, or IDR 2 trillion. Despite more than half of the target has been exceeded and the positive sentiment from easing rules LTV, this property companies has no plan to revise the target. PWON property sales data in 2014 using mortgage facilities large enough to reach 25%.(Kontan) APLN: Sluggish sales, capex realization is still minim. In the first half of 2015, capital expenditure absorption PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) has not reached 50% of the target of IDR 6.5 trillion to IDR 7.5 trillion. Wibisono, Investor relations APLN said, it is due to the sale during the first quarter did not match expectations. "The numbers have not come out but not to 50%," said Wibisono. (Kontan) AISA: Expansion, AISA prepared IDR 237 billion. PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) spur business growth of palm oil plantations. AISA prepared IDR237 billion for capital expenditure subsidiary engaged in the PT Golden Plantation Tbk (GOLL). Desilina, Corporate Secretary AISA said the funds would be used for organic expansion of new land planting approximately 6000-8000 hectares (ha). "In addition, also for treatment and develop plantation assets that have been embedded," said Desi. (Kontan) WSKT: As of June, the new contract reach IDR 9.9 trillion. PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk (WSKT) plans to revise its performance seems closer to realization. This can be seen from the acquisition of new contracts until June. Antonius Yulianto, Corporate Secretary Waskita explained, until last June a new contract reached IDR 9.9 trillion. This figure is up 39% compared to the same period the previous year, IDR 7.1 trillion. (Kontan) 2
Technical analysis Recommendation Chart 1. IHSG Daily Chart Trading Close 4,906 Resistance 4,950 Support 4,890 Stop-Loss 4,820 View from the Charts Hunting action against some property sector stocks; WSKT, ASRI, PPRO, ADHI, WIKA which in turn is able to withstand the pace of weakening pressure on JCI to not penetrate the trend of support from 4,885-4,890 of the Ascending Triangle formed since 16 June. The sector is one other than the trade sector, which recorded a rise of up to 1.4% and 0.3% Volatility JCI extends to 0.31%, before finally corrected 0.21% and closed at 4,906.05 support level. In yesterday's trading, foreign investors posted net sales of IDR140bn value across the board. Where the total value of transactions that occurred were recorded at IDR4.09tr of 4.5tr shares traded, 14% lower than the number of shares traded the previous day. Under normal conditions, JCI tomorrow is expected to try to move in similar ranges from 4,910 4,950. Tightens stop-loss 4,880 4,885 when JCI failed to stay on trend support at 4,910, in anticipation of the potential pressures of up to 4,740 levels. Chart 2. IHSG Intraday Chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3
Chart 3. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,600 USD/IDR (R) 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4/7 4/21 5/5 5/19 6/2 6/16 6/30 (IDR) 13,800 13,300 12,800 12,300 11,800 11,300 Chart 4. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) 12 8 4 0-4 1.2-0.2-0.1 4.2 Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute 2.6-2.2-2.4 1D 1W 1M 1Y Relative 10.3 Chart 5. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 6. Energy price (USDmn) 600 400 1 Day 5 Days 545 461 ((USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 70 2,400 2,300 200 0-200 -400-600 -43-3 -11-12 -369-422 Note: The latest figure for India are Jul, 06 th ; 16 2-196 -15 Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India 60 50 40 4/15 4/15 5/15 5/15 6/15 6/15 6/15 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 Chart 7. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 8. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 Silver Gold Platinum 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 4
Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 13,200 325,446-2.9-2.2-3.3 17.1 19.6 17.6 4.2 3.5 23.3 21.7 Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 10,150 236,833 2.3 1.0-4.9 2.3 12.7 10.8 2.4 2.0 20.9 19.7 Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 10,475 258,409 0.7 1.2-7.3-0.7 11.9 9.9 2.9 2.2 27.4 24.2 Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 5,550 103,500 1.8 4.7-10.8 14.6 10.6 8.8 1.9 1.5 20.2 18.3 Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,220 40,447 0.7-1.9 0.5-1.6 16.7 12.0 1.3 1.2 8.1 9.6 Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 3,440 20,091-0.1 0.4-9.5-19.4 12.5 9.0 2.0 1.5 17.2 17.1 PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 940 4,423-1.6-2.6-16.4 21.3 12.0 9.3 1.9 1.4 16.7 17.0 Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 570 3,506 0.9 0.0-10.9-24.5 12.8 6.7 1.2 N/A 9.4 14.1 Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON 415 19,986-1.4-3.5 2.5 10.4 9.9 10.0 4.0 2.7 50.1 29.3 Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI 565 11,102 2.7-1.7-2.6 13.0 10.0 7.9 1.8 1.5 19.5 20.0 Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 1,700 32,719-0.6 1.8-11.5 6.9 8.5 12.0 2.2 1.8 29.9 16.4 CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 890 3,035 2.3 7.9-4.3 11.9 23.3 16.0 4.8 3.4 21.1 21.9 Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 2,305 4,152 6.0 14.1-4.0-26.6 19.3 11.2 3.6 2.0 19.7 18.9 Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 2,975 18,294 4.4 18.8-2.3 22.4 36.7 25.5 5.7 4.1 17.7 15.7 Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,880 18,789 5.0 11.8-1.8 93.0 32.5 26.3 7.2 6.1 24.3 25.4 Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,720 24,066 6.2 13.2 4.7 138.5 28.3 27.9 5.0 5.1 19.2 15.2 RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 6,575 57,731 0.4 0.0-6.7-4.7 18.9 13.4 2.4 2.1 16.0 15.8 Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,650 77,344 0.0-1.5-5.2-2.7 41.6 32.5 9.1 7.2 23.6 22.6 Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,250 8,715-0.9-5.0-7.9 7.1 112.8 30.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 10.6 Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 40,250 307,108-0.6 1.9-4.5 30.3 43.0 49.3 53.6 61.7 129.6 129.2 Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 12,100 70,555-1.4-3.0-10.0 18.3 29.3 22.8 5.4 4.4 19.5 20.0 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 675 4,790 0.0-2.2-8.2-40.3 15.8 15.3 1.7 1.4 10.8 9.3 Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 25,475 22,784-1.9-2.0-2.0-13.8 46.3 28.1 4.7 4.5 10.3 18.5 Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES 635 10,890 0.8-1.6-4.5-26.2 24.2 19.0 5.7 3.9 26.0 22.0 Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 46,650 89,759-0.9 3.4 3.2-12.6 21.8 15.4 3.5 2.5 17.2 16.1 Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,160 5,872-0.4 0.9-7.2-17.4 37.2 24.2 7.3 5.0 21.6 22.2 AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 6,900 279,337-1.4-2.5-1.4-8.0 15.7 14.5 3.1 2.7 21.4 18.4 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3,510 9,706-4.2-7.6-9.4-28.4 N/A 21.5 1.9 1.6-2.2 6.1 Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 2,350 11,326-2.1-6.0-6.9-38.2 23.2 17.9 2.2 1.2 9.8 6.5 TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2,870 289,296-2.0-2.0 0.5 11.0 19.1 17.0 4.1 3.8 22.8 22.4 XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 3,265 27,888 1.2-11.4-25.7-38.4 N/A 109.3 3.0 1.9-6.1 1.5 Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,000 21,736 0.0 0.0 12.5 9.4 20.2 39.1 1.6 1.6-13.3 3.0 INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 6,000 40,800 1.3 9.6-5.5-1.2 34.2 25.3 4.9 3.8 14.9 15.2 Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 8,950 42,929 0.0-3.0-3.8 15.1 35.3 26.9 11.5 6.6 32.7 30.3 MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 655 6,248-1.5-3.7-13.8-43.0 N/A 81.6 0.9 0.7-6.3 1.5 Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 665 4,953-0.7-6.3-19.4-52.3 13.5 10.3 1.6 0.9 12.2 8.9 Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 7,975 18,375-2.7-5.1-15.4-28.8 13.5 11.7 3.2 1.9 25.2 17.0 CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 21,175 77,950-0.6 1.4-2.2-15.3 17.5 15.1 3.7 3.0 22.1 19.9 Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,500 11,494 0.0 0.0-3.8-44.6 25.1 18.8 1.9 1.3 7.6 6.4 Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 11,625 68,954-2.3-3.1-12.1-27.0 17.3 12.5 4.0 2.6 24.8 20.8 *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 5
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2,146.2-0.2 MLPL IJ 680 6,844 8.80 Mining 1,099.5-1.1 SRIL IJ 389 7,233 8.17 Basic-Industry 424.0-0.5 WSKT IJ 1720 24,066 6.17 Miscellaneous Industry 1,198.5-1.0 SMRA IJ 1775 25,608 5.65 Consumer Goods 2,175.2-0.6 PTPP IJ 3880 18,789 5.01 Property & Construction 516.6 1.5 WIKA IJ 2975 18,294 4.4 Infrastructure 1,028.9-0.8 JKON IJ 1050 17,124 3.96 Finance 700.3-0.1 AMRT IJ 600 24,915 3.45 Trade 910.3 0.4 KAEF IJ 1035 5,748 2.99 Composite 4,906.1-0.2 MSKY IJ 1440 10,172 2.9 Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close BMRI IJ 2.3 10,150 BBCA IJ -2.9 13,200 BBNI IJ 1.8 5,550 TLKM IJ -2.1 2,870 BBRI IJ 0.7 10,475 ASII IJ -1.4 6,900 SMRA IJ 5.7 1,775 UNVR IJ -0.6 40,250 WSKT IJ 6.2 1,720 SMGR IJ -2.3 11,625 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 53.2 53.3 3:00am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.2% -0.1% 5:30am GBP FPC Meeting Minutes All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 7:30am GBP Annual Budget Release 8:30am CAD Building Permits m/m -5.2% 11.6% 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.6M 2.4M 1:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.46 2.7 2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 18.5B 20.5B 7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance 37% 34% 7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -4.8% 3.8% 7:50pm JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 4.0% 4.0% 9:30pm AUD Employment Change -2.1K 42.0K 9:30pm AUD Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.0% 9:30pm CNY CPI y/y 1.3% 1.2% 9:30pm CNY PPI y/y -4.6% -4.6% 11:45pm JPY 30-y Bond Auction 1.53 3.1 Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purpo sed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2015. 6