Mitglied der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Market integration of electric mobility: Analyzing economic efficiency and costs for consumers Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE) ENERDAY, 6th Conference on Energy Economics and Technology Technische Universität Dresden, 08. April 2011, Dresden, Germany 1
Contents 1. Introduction and Motivation 2. Economic Model 1. Total Costs of Ownership 2. Frame of analysis 3. Results 4. Sensitivity Analysis 1. Battery costs 2. Grid services 5. Summary, Discussion and Outlook 2
Introduction and Motivation The mobility sector in Germany is responsible for around 21% 1 of greenhouse gas emissions Electric mobility as a new technology has a potential to: Transform the mobility sector in an environmental friendly system Lower emissions (dependent on electricity production) Reduce dependence on oil (imports) Only possible if electric mobility evolves in the market (market integration) Under which conditions is electric mobility economically efficient for private consumers? Rigorous cost analysis Comparison of electric vehicles with conventional vehicles Focus on battery costs and grid services 1 UMWELTBUNDESAMT (2007) 3
Economic model Total Costs of Ownership Display of all costs over a given lifetime Total Costs of Ownership TCO Costs of Acquisition Costs of Operation Costs of Disposal Initial Costs Fixed Costs Variable Costs End-of- Life Costs Market Policy Market Policy Market Policy Market Standard Componen t New Componen t Buying Incentives Abrasion Maintenance Insurance Vehicle to Grid Tax Incentives Power Tax Incentives Desacquisition Car Body Battery Subsidies Overall Overall Costs for Earnings Insurance by V2G Car tax incentives Fuel Fuel tax incentives Residual value Engine Electric Motor Bonus - Malus Tires Engine Electricity Electr. tax incentives Disposal Drive Train Power electronics Tank Systems Charger Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE) 2011, April 8th 4
Economic model Total Costs of Ownership Various ways to calculate TCO, focus on mobility costs (MC) All costs over the lifetime divided through the achieved output Output = all driven kilometers (km) One-time costs are distributed over the lifetime by an annuity factor a Result: costs per km (( CSC CNC) In DC) * a FCwith VC MC km Tkm 1 (1 r) a 1 (1 r) 1 T Calculations for different points in time (2010, 2015, 2020, 2030) Development of costs as expert guess MC: mobility costs; CSC: costs of acquisition, standard components; CNC: costs of acquisition, new components; In: incentives; DC: disposal costs; a: annuity factor; FC: fixed costs of operation; VC: variable costs of operation; Tkm: total km over lifetime; r: interest rate; T: total lifetime 5
Frame of analysis Vehicles Reference car Compact class Subcompact class Micro car class Reference Reference New concepts car New concepts car New concept Ford Focus 1,6 Concept 1 PHEV REV BEV Ford Fiesta 1,25 Trend 1 REV BEV Ford Ka 1,2 Concept 1 BEV Elec. driving range NEDC 2-30 50 120-50 120-120 Drive power electric (kw) - 25 55 55-45 45-45 Drive power combustion engine (kw) 74 85 36-44 15-51 - Battery capacity (kwh) - 6 10 24-7.9 18.9-18.6 Elec. consumption urban NEDC (kwh/100km) - 16.2 16.1 16-12.5 12.5-12.3 Elec. consumption nonurban NEDC (kwh/100km) - 16.2 16.1 16-12.5 12.5-12.3 Gasoline consumption urban NEDC (l/100km) 1 8.7 8.7 8.7-7.3 7.3-5.8 - Gasoline consumption non-urban NEDC (l/100km) 1 5.5 5.5 5.5-4.4 4.4-4.4 - Elec. driving (%) 3-60 80 100-80 100-100 Fuel driving (%) 3 100 40 20-100 20-100 - Urban driving (%) 4 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 50 50 - not valid for electric vehicles, respectively combustion engine vehicles 1 NEDC: New European Driving Cycle 2 ADAC (2011) Autodatenbank 3 Infas Systems & DLR (2010) Analysis Mobilität and Technology in Deutschland Evaluation 2008 (IEK-STE) 2011, April 8th 6 4 Biere, D., et al. (2009)
Frame of analysis Assumptions Analysis of private costs for consumers Additional social and external costs, costs for the government or the industry are not part of the analysis Total lifetime: 11 years Yearly driving performance: 12,000km All daily distances <120km Discount rate: 5% No governmental incentives No costs of disposal 7
Frame of analysis Costs of acquisition Costs of acquisition 1 Costs of standard components (car body, tank, combustion engine, drive train) are assumed as constant Electric engine: 8.75% cost decrease per year Power electronics: 17.5% cost decrease per year One-time infrastructure costs 2 : 800 1 Blesl, M., et al. (2009) 2 Biere, D., et al. (2009) 8
Frame of analysis Costs of operation Costs of operation Annual tax on motor vehicles + insurance (constant) 1 : 3% of purchase price Maintenance and repair (constant) 2 : Reference vehicle: 3.6 ct 2010 /kwh PHEV / REV: 4.5 ct 2010 /kwh BEV: 2.1 ct 2010 /kwh Grid services (constant) 3 : 200 /a / 100 /a - as fixed yearly payment Costs for electricity and fuel develop following the reference scenario of recent energy scenario 4 : 2010 2015 2020 2030 Electricity ( ct 2010 /kwh) 23.7 21.7 21.7 22.2 Fuel ( 2010 /l) 1.35 1.44 1.52 1.69 1 Blesl, M., et al. (2009) 2 CARB (2000) 3 Hackbarth, A., et al. (2009) 4 ewi et al. (2010) 9
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Frame of analysis Uncertainties Component Low uncertainty Medium uncertainty High uncertainty Car body Combustion engine Tank X X X Electric engine X Battery X (compare path 1-3) Infrastructure Net services Incentives Energy prices X Residual value / disposal 11
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Sensitivity analysis Optimistic development of battery costs 13
Sensitivity analysis Pessimistic development of battery costs 14
Sensitivity analysis Grid services Assumption of 200 /a and 100 /a Results without compensation show no significant difference in the TCO (around 1 ct) The overall picture does not change Another analysis 1 even points out compensations below 100 for tertiary control It is questionable if grid services with the assumed compensation has an influence on the economic efficiency of electric vehicles for private consumers This might change if prices for grid services rise in the future But: loss in value of battery due to additional charging has to be considered 1 Hennings, W., Linssen, J., (2010) 15
Summary Analysis of economic efficiency of electric mobility by displaying Total Costs of Ownership of electric vehicles in comparison to conventional vehicles Lower costs of operation of electric vehicles cannot compensate higher costs of acquisition in comparison to conventional vehicles today (in 2010) Battery costs and development of battery costs have significant influence on the economic efficiency Compensation of grid services has insignificant influence Electric vehicles can have an economic advantage for private consumers under certain conditions in comparison to conventional vehicles But: Results of TCO point out, that conventional vehicles are economically advantageous to electric vehicles today and also in the near future 16
Discussion and Outlook This analysis can and should be expanded to achieve an overall picture of the economic efficiency of electric mobility: Incentive schemes Taxation Electricity and fuel costs Grid services different operation models Loss in value of battery Behavior of consumers Loss in utility due to limited driving range and long charging periods 17
Thank you for your attention! 18
Contact information Stefan Bickert Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE) 52425 Jülich, Germany Phone: +49 (0)2461/61-3261 Mail: s.bickert@fz-juelich.de 19
Literature UMWELTBUNDESAMT (2007) Klimaschutz in Deutschland: 40%-Senkung der CO2-Emissionen bis 2020 gegenüber 1990. Dessau ADAC (2011) Autodatenbank. München. www.adac.de [28.01.2011] Infas & DLR (2010) Mobilität in Deutschland 2008. Bonn, Berlin Biere, D., et al. (2009) Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer von Elektrofahrzeugen. Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft (ZfE), 2009:2, 173-181 Blesl, M., et al (2009) Entwicklungsstand und Perspektiven der Elektromobilität. Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER), Stuttgart California Air Resource Board (CARB) (2000) Staff Report. 2000 Zero Emissions Vehicle Program Hackbarth, A., et al. (2009) Plug-in Hybridfahrzeuge: Wirtschaftlichkeit und Marktchancen verschiedener Geschäftsmodelle. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (et), 59:7, 60-63 ewi et al. (2010) Energieszenarien für ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung. Basel, Köln, Osnabrück Günther, C. et al. (2010) Grid Integration of Electrical Power Train Systems in Existing and Future Energy Supply Structures Development of a Battery Model Considering Aging and Costs. 12th Ulm ElectroChemical Talks (UECT), Neu-Ulm Hennings, W., Linssen, J. (2010) Welche Netzdienstleistungen können Elektrofahrzeuge sinnvoll erbringen? STE-Preprint 28/2010, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, IEK-STE, www2.fz-juelich.de/ste [30.03.2011] 20