Reinforcement of Business Relationship between Brazil -Japan ⅩⅦ Joint Meeting of the Brazil Japan Economic Cooperation Committee, Septemnber9 th, 2014, Tokyo Japan
<Contents> 1. TRADING between Japan and Brazil. 2. INVESTMENT from Japan to Brazil 3. Conclusion
Not only China, but USA and Germany have been increasing the trading amount with Brazil. Export to (China, USA..) Import from (China, USA..) US$ BN 50 US$ BN 50 45 46 45 40 35 40 35 37 36 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 16 15 15 15 10 5 8 7 10 5 7 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:MDIC 2
Brazil imports many industrial products. Export of Brazil Import of Brazil Industrial Product Others 2.3% Primaly Product 13.9% Primaly Product 3.4% Seminished Product 38.4% US$ 242.2 BN (2013) 46.7% US$ 239.6 BN (2013) 12.6% Semifinished Product Industrial Product 82.7% Source: SECEX 3
Among 3 countries, there are many common products exported to Brazil. US$ BN US$ BN US$ BN Others Aircraft 2.9% Vehicles 2.9% Cereals 3.2% 18.2% Pharmace 4.0% utical 4.5% Chemical Products 6.1% Optical Plastics 6.1% 7.9% Electrical Machinery 19.4% 6.3% Machinery 18.6% Medical Products Fuel Chemical Products Fertilisers Others 2.7% 3.9% Plastics 5.0% Optical Equipment 6.7% 7.5% 16.5% Electrical 9.4% Machinery Medical Products 9.4% 25.3% Machinery 13.6% Pharmaceutical Products Vehicles Plastics Fuel Others Rubber 3.0% 2.3% 3.7% Medical Products 5.4% 36BN 15BN 7BN Steel 5.8% Optical Equipment 7.0% Electrical machinery 10.1% 14.1% Machinery 30.7% 17.8% Vehicles : Common products among 3 countries Source: UN COMTRADE 4
Japan has more chance and opportunities to increase export to Brazil. US$ BN +77% 4.0 3.5 3.8 Japan Germany 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.2 +63% 2.1 +273% 1.5 1.0 1.3 +15% 1.1 1.0 1.4 +670% 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 Machinery Vehicle Electronics Medical Chemical 5
MC has been importing Methanol from Venezuela since 2012, and is trying to increase more. Methanol Production & Export Pequiven Mitsubishi Corporation Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Distribution Methanol production Volume: 1.6 Mtpa Import 6
Time for custom clearance efficiency is the lowest level in the world Average time to clear export through customs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Days Brazil India 15.1 15.9 Colombia 8.6 x2.4 Panama 7.6 China 6.6 Spain 4.9 Germany 4.7 Malaysia 2.7 x12 Indonesia 2.3 Thailand 1.3 Source) World Bank 7
Big gap between Production Capacity and Result is anticipated after 2015 MN Unit 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 1.7 2002 Supply and Demand Balance of Automotive industry 2.0 1.7 2003 2.2 2.1 2004 Production Capacity Production Result 2.5 2.4 2005 2.8 2.4 2006 3.0 2.8 2007 3.3 3.1 2008 Source) Anfavea, Mizuho Industry Focus, Bradesco, Roland Berger 3.7 3.1 2009 4.0 3.4 2010 4.3 3.4 2011 4.4 3.4 2012 4.4 3.7 2013 4.9 3.9 2014 5.8 4.0 2015 Forecast GAP 5.9 4.2 2016 MN Unit 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Export increase? Domestic sales increase? Projected Capacity Expansion MN Unit Fiat 0.25 Honda 0.15 Hyundai 0.13 Mercedes-Benz 0.02 Cherry 0.15 BMW 0.025 8
Acceleration of FTA conclusion is expecting. Source) Ministry of Development Mercosur ECA with Mercosur or Brazil FTA with Mercosur including only signed countries Preferential Fixed Tariff Agreement with Mercosur 9
<Contents> 1. TRADING between Japan and Brazil. 2. INVESTMENT from Japan to Brazil 3. Conclusion
Japan doesn t have a big presence in FDI into Brazil. 10.4 Share of Japan (%) 9.2 10.8 7.9 3.9 2.7 1.2 3.5 2.9 1.5 5.3 4.8 2.4 5.1 70,000 60,000 50,000 FDI Ammount (BUS$) 44,457 52,583 69,530 60,543 49,342 40,000 30,000 20,000 21,093 18,960 13,087 20,542 22,043 22,769 34,335 31,679 31,932 10,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 JAN-JUL 11
MC operates the feedstuff and grain value chain. Developing Resources Trading Raw Materials Manufacturing & Processing Intermediary Distribution Retail Information Providing Market Needs Logistics Investment Finance Inventory Management Information Consulting Source: Mitsubishi Corporation do Brazil MC Group provides multi functions Specialized Knowledge & Know-How Products & Industries Regions Functions & Services 12
Increase of Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Brazil is expected. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, as % of GDP 47 % 31 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 18.3 16.9 1995 1996 1997 Source: IBGE, BRICs Dictionary 17.4 17.0 16.8 17.0 16.4 15.7 15.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 16.1 2004 16.0 2005 16.4 2006 17.4 2007 19.1 2008 22 18.1 2009 19.5 2010 19.3 2011 18.2 2012 18.4 2013 13
Lack of efficiency in the Infrastructureis an obstacle to the economic growth of Brazil. Ports 52 59 80 93 135 Railroads 22 27 30 46 100 Highways 42 54 66 123 136 Overall Infrastru cture 58 69 87 101 107 Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness 14
PAC is not going smoothly for Ports and Railroads. Ports Highways R$ B 25 100 R$ B 20 15 10 5 0 14.0 PAC1 9.9 PAC2 23.9 PAC Total 33.5% 8.0 Executed 80 60 40 20 0 41.4 PAC1 50.4 PAC2 91.8 PAC Total 82.0% 75.3 Executed Railroads Airport R$ B 80 60 46.0 40 20 22.9 0 PAC1 PAC2 Source: ILO, FIPE, Merrill Lynch 68.9 PAC Total 20.6% 14.2 Executed 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 R$ B 3.0 PAC1 2.7 PAC2 5.7 PAC Total 66.7% 3.8 Executed 15
Inland freight cost of Brazil is much higher than USA. Transportation Mode Matrix for Soybeans Rail Warehouse Capacity % of Annual Harvest 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 16.0% 2.0% Water 80 x1.5 120 82.0% Highaway Inland Freight Cost Highaway 25.0% 35.0% Rail US$/MT 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 145 x5.8 Water 40.0% Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 25 Brazil: From Sorriso to Santos by truck, USA: From Illinois to New Orleans by vessel. 16
Brazil has big opportunity to expand Urban Subway Network. Total Extension of Subway in major metropolitan 0 100 200 300 400 km Planned PPP Subway project 0 10 20 30 40 km Sao Paulo 65 Sao Paulo Rio de Janerio 10.2 43.7 Rio de Janerio 46 Bahia Minas Gerais 4.0 3.0 Beijing 442 Parana Amazonas 3.0 1.4 Shanghai 423 Amazonas New York 368 Tokyo 305 Bahia Moscow Delhi 193 309 Minas Gerais Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Parana Source: The Economist January 5 th 2013 17
Risk allocation between Public and Private sectors is a key to develop PPP. Brazil Other Countries Risk Item Description / Challenges for Private It s supposed to be UK Australia Passenger Demand Assumption of demand risk within limited band (sounds reasonable) Within limited band Public s responsibility Change in Law/Tax Public s responsibility (sounds reasonable) Public s responsibility Public s Responsibility Land Expropriation Execution of expropriation Full responsibility of Public Public s responsibility Public s responsibility Nationalization Requirement Unlimited liability to sponsor in case of non-compliance Sponsor s liability should be limited No requirement No requirement Force Majeure Unlimited liability to sponsor for the damage To be limited to equity amount Up to equity amount Shared Authorization and Permission Private s responsibility in some permissions Full responsibility of Public Sector Public s responsibility Public s responsibility Source: Mitsubishi Corporation do Brazil 18
<Contents> 1. TRADING between Japan and Brazil. 2. INVESTMENT from Japan to Brazil 3. Conclusion
Conclusion ~ Reinforcement of Business Relationship between Brazil - Japan 1. Expansion of TRADING between Brazil and Japan 1) Improvement of custom clearance process 2) Improvement of logistics infrastructure 3) Increase of high value-added products from Japan 4) EPA 2. Promotion of INVESTMENT in Brazil from Japan 1) Speed up and streamlining of the bidding process of the government 2) Goal setting with the same level as world standard infrastructure 3) Formation of unified guideline for PPP projects 4) EPA 20