BNEF Long Term EV Outlook NGA EV Webinar Salim Morsy August 24, 2017
About BNEF 1 August 24, 2017
Analysis to help you understand the future of energy Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2 August 24, 2017
Electric vehicles Electric vehicles Models, availability, sales and market shares Supply chain Vehicle economics Company positioning and strategies Policy, regulatory impacts and outlook Commercial EVs and fleet economics Short, medium and long term EV adoption forecasts Fuel cell vehicles Mild-electrification, lightweighting and other fuel efficiency technologies EV batteries Costs, pricing, supply and demand Market shares Company strategies and business models Manufacturing trends Competing chemistries and emerging technologies Intersection with stationary storage market Long term outlook Infrastructure and grid integration EV charging infrastructure value chain, economics and business models EV grid integration and power system impacts Second-life battery applications Utility roles and involvement Hydrogen refuelling infrastructure and power-to-gas Impact on oil demand Recurring publications Electrified Transport Market Outlook Company rankings: Top 10 EV manufacturers EV battery price and capacity outlooks Fossil fuel displacement from electric vehicles Quarterly Annually Other areas of coverage Advanced Fuels Market Outlook Biofuels production economics, capacities, investment and policy analysis Semi-annually 3 August 24, 2017
Intelligent mobility Autonomous and connected vehicles Autonomous driving technology and value chains Connectivity in vehicles Fleet deployments Company positioning and strategies Policy, regulatory impacts and outlook Market sizing and forecasts Mobility services Mobility companies positioning and strategies Economic analysis of mobility business models Intersection with autonomous vehicles Policy and regulatory landscape Investment tracking Market sizing and forecasts Impact on key sectors EV charging infrastructure value chain, economics and business models EV grid integration and power system impacts Second-life battery applications Utility roles and involvement Hydrogen refuelling infrastructure and power-to-gas Impact on oil demand Recurring publications (to be launched) Core data sets (to be launched) Mobility and Autonomous Driving Market Outlook Leader board reports on intelligent mobility and autonomous driving Autonomous driving system sales Automaker announcements and plans Investment trends Quarterly Annually 4 August 24, 2017
EV Outlook to 2040 5 August 24, 2017
Global EV sales by region Thousand units 1,018 We expect passenger EV sales to be just over 1m in 2017 695 21 46 218 448 23 158 283 122 56 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines, automakers, vehicle registration agencies Note: EV sales include BEV and PHEV sales. China data exclude low-speed EV sales and commercial vehicles. 6 August 24, 2017 27 30 206 96 66 29 288 116 96 32 36 115 182 114 209 283 435 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW
Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast $/kwh 1,000 900 800 700 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index 2010-16 600 500 400 300 2025 average lithium-ion battery price: $109/kWh 2025 average lithium-ion battery price: $73/kWh BNEF observed values 19% learning rate 200 100 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Prices are for cells plus packs and are an average of BEV and PHEVs. Cell-only prices will be lower. Historical values are nominal, forecast values are in real 2016 US dollars. 7 August 24, 2017
Scenario: US plant, 3GWh 2016 production, BEV pack Parameter Chemistry Pack size Location Value NMC/graphite BEV 40kWh US Production 2016: 3GWh 2030: 60GWh Forecast (YOY) 2.5% economies of scale price decline, 35% production increase, 5% pack capacity increase Lithium-ion EV battery forecast for a 3GWh US plant, 2016-2030 223 71 152 195 62 133 170 54 116 148 48 101 128 42 86 107 36 98 32 89 29 70 65 60 Lithium-ion EV battery pack breakdown (BEV), 3GWh US plant, 2016 Pack operating Cell operating Thermal management Module housing Cell capital Module control 8 August 24, 2017 Pack capital 17% 1% 2% 3% Capital 20% 4% Labour 3% Battery Management System 14% 15% Cathode 8% Cell 5% materials $220/kWh $223/kWh Operating 39% 7% 16% 11% Pack 5% materials 24% Anode Separator Electrolyte 3% 1% Electrical connections Pouch Pack Housing 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Cell Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Pack Scenario 1: 3 GWh US NMC/graphite BNEF s bottom up lithium-ion battery cost model can simulate production costs based on plant size, location, chemistry and more. It has been extensively tested with industry partners.
U.S. medium BEV pre-tax price breakdown, ICE pre-tax price and share of battery costs 2016 $ (thousand) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 48% 42% 36% 31% 27% 24% 21% 18% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Battery Powertrain Vehicle ICE medium Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 August 24, 2017
Price and volume of all cars sold in the U.S., 2016 Volume of vehicles sold per year 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10 August 24, 2017 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 Average transaction price of vehicle Large Medium Small SUV
BEV model availability, 2008-20 SUVs/Trucks Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans 11 August 24, 2017 Land Rover Defender Mahindra everito SAIC E-Lavida CODA EV Toyota RAV4 Fiat 500e Mitsubishi i-miev BYD e6 Smith Edison 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350+ Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is speculated. Venturi Fetish Honda Clarity BAIC EU260 JAC iev4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-golf Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe ZE BMW mini e Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV200 Peugeot Partner M-B B-Class Hyundai Ioniq Tata IRIS Renault DeZir ChangAn Eado M-B Vito Trumpchi GS4 Qianto Q50 M-B SLS edrive VW e-up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 VW Budd-e Geely Emgrand ChangAn EM80 Renault Kangoo Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi ex Tesla Model Y* Aston Martin RapidE Mullen 700e NIO ES8* Tesla Roadster GLM G4 Exagon Furtive Tesla Model 3 VW e-bulli Chevy Bolt Audi E-tron Sportback Nissan Leaf 2* Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model S VW I.D. Chehejia SUV* NIO ES9 LeEco LeSEE Tesla Model X Audi R8 E-tron 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 VW I.D. BUZZ VW I.D. CROZZ Volvo 40.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport Tesla Roadster* NIO EVE Lucid Air Faraday FF91
Annual global light duty vehicle sales million cars per year 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 8% 1% 3% 43% 24% 54% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ICE sales, total EV sales, total EV % of new sales Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: ICE sales include traditional hybrids. 12 August 24, 2017
Global fuel demand displacement from EV sales in million barrels of oil per day mbpd 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Rest of World France UK Rest of Europe Germany Japan China US Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: we calculate the number of barrels displaced by multiplying the cumulative number of EVs on the road in a given year by the average vehicle miles travelled by the EV, divided by the average miles per gallon of an internal combustion engine vehicle on the road. This is then divided by 365 days/year, and divided again by 42, which is the number of gallons in one barrel. Our figures likely understate actual crude oil displacement given that one barrel of crude oil produces around 19.5 gallons of gasoline and 12 gallons of diesel. Our calculation treats a barrel displaced as entirely made of finished transportation fuel. 13 August 24, 2017
Yearly electricity consumption from EVs TWh 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 France UK Germany Japan Rest of Europe Rest of World China US Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14 August 24, 2017
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