Future Powertrain Demands, Energy Sources & Potential Technologies Neville Jackson Chief Technology & Innovation Officer Ricardo plc 24 th February 2016
2 Contents The Great Divide: Policy Makers & Engineers Environmental Challenges & Responsibilities Future Energy Vectors for Propulsion Systems Technology Options Heavy & Light Duty Impacts from i-mobility
3 Be wary of jumping from one favoured technology to the next There are no silver bullets Technology & Fashion 1980 Synthetic Fuels (Oil Crisis) 1985 Adiabatic Insulated Engines Gartner Hype Cycle Peak of Inflated Expectations 1990 Methanol 1995 Electricity (CARB & EV1?) 2000 Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment 2005 HCCI & Alternative Combustion 2007 Biofuels & Ethanol 2009 Plug-in Hybrids & EV s 2014 Driverless Cars Policy makers often look for a simple solution that makes good headlines Industry sometimes too eager to promote promising Green techs for PR Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Where are they now? Biofuels Valley of Death Plug-in Hybrids & EV s HCCI/Alternative Combustion
4 Contents The Great Divide: Policy Makers & Engineers Environmental Challenges & Responsibilities Future Energy Vectors for Propulsion Systems Technology Options Heavy & Light Duty Impacts from i-mobility
5 NOx emissions in cities and human exposure at roadside are dominated by road transport Legal Limit Areas exceeding NO 2 limit NO 2 µg/m 3 60 40 20 0 Roadside Measurements Legal Limit 10 Inner London sites 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Real World Diesel NOx has not reduced in line with drive cycle regulations In the EU, road transport emissions account for 64% of NO 2 concentrations Inner London has higher primary NO 2 emissions More diesels (buses and taxis) Transport for London buses (~6,000 CRT retrofits = high emissions of NO 2 )
Grams CO 2 per km, normalized to NEDC Emissions Limits (g/km) RD.16/51301.1 6 Propulsion System Challenges & Drivers Legislative drivers demand ever lower CO 2 emissions and with zero air quality impact Regulatory diversity increasingly challenging 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal EU 2020: 95 China 2020: 117 Japan 2020: 105 US 2025: 107 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Regulatory diversity introduces significant engineering costs Efforts to introduce a harmonised cycle only partially successful
Fuel Economy [L/100km PM [g/kwh] RD.16/51301.1 7 Market drivers Global Heavy Duty Global emissions procedures and limits have shown increasing harmonisation, benefitting both OEMs and global emissions regulators 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 60 50 40 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 NOx [g/kwh] Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI EPA 2004 EPA 2010 Japan PNLT Japan 2016 20 MY2017 USA Limits 10 MY2015 Japan Limits 0 8500 18500 28500 38500 48500 GVW [kg] EU has adopted the new World Harmonised Steady State Cycle (WHSC) and World Harmonised Transient Cycle (WHTC) in Euro VI (2014) Japan will adopt WHTC from 2016 Regulatory harmonisation welcomed by HDV OEM s reduces homologation costs resources re-directed to emissions reduction Variations in HD fuel economy regulations reflect differing vehicle regulations and use in each market General trend towards combined component testing and vehicle simulation to predict fuel efficiency and CO 2 for a range of variants and duty cycles More practical solution than requiring all HDV variants to tested on heavy duty chassis dyno
8 Contents The Great Divide: Policy Makers & Engineers Environmental Challenges & Responsibilities Future Energy Vectors for Propulsion Systems Technology Options Heavy & Light Duty Impacts from i-mobility
Long haul / heavy duty applications will require low carbon liquid fuels light duty applications more suited to batteries 12 10 8 6 4 2 Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosene, Biomass to Liquids HVO (Biodiesel) FAME (Biodiesel) Ethanol LNG incl. tank Coal? CNG (250 bar) including tank H 2 (700 bar) including tank 0 Li-ion Batteries Energy Density (kw.hr/kg) Source: Ricardo research & US DoE* Long Distance/Heavy Duty Low Carbon Liquid Fuels Long distance/ heavy duty vehicles need space/weight efficient energy storage Technology/Cost & Availability State of the Art Li-ion battery for 500 mile range 40 ton HGV would weigh 23 tons* 1000 mile range compressed H 2 Fuel Tank would require 3000 litre tank weighing ~ 3 tons* Liquid Fuel / Battery Hybrid Use of both liquid fuel and grid re-charged battery offers more flexibility and utility Short Distance/Light Duty RD.16/51301.1 Battery Electric EV s suited to short distance/light duty applications to minimise cost Technology/Cost Innovations 9
10 Contents The Great Divide: Policy Makers & Engineers Environmental Challenges & Responsibilities Future Energy Vectors for Propulsion Systems Technology Options Heavy & Light Duty Impacts from i-mobility
Heavy duty/high power applications offer opportunities for a range of efficiency enhancements Analysis of Vehicle Energy Flows (Heavy Duty Example) From the total amount of fuel used (at 100km/h), the energy flows are as follows: Combustion Ancillaries Transmission Loss Roll Resistance Aero Drag Fuel Energy Loss 65% 5% 5% 10% 15% (Under body ~ 1/3) Exhaust Heat Recovery? Split Cycle? Electric & Variable Ancillaries? Automated Manual Transmissions? Low Resistance & Single Wide Tyres? Aero Packs? Teardrop Trailers Platooning? Source: Ricardo analysis RD.16/51301.1 11
Peak Shaft Thermal Efficiency (ή e %) ICE Thermal Efficiency has considerable scope to improve & could reach over 60% in future products 70 Advanced cycles include: Split cycle/recuperation Combined Stirling/Brayton/Otto 60 1st Gen includes: turbocompound electrical or mechanical Initial Rankine Cycles US DoE Target including use of waste heat Adv Cycles + Heat Recovery 50 US DoE Target for Combustion engine + 2 nd Gen Ex Heat Recovery 40 HD Diesel + 1st Gen Ex Heat Recovery 2nd Gen includes: Optimised Rankine cycles Heat to power systems Thermo-electric systems Air Quality Emissions reduced to virtual zero Source: Ricardo Analysis Time / Product Generations RD.16/51301.1 12
Wide range of transmission technologies in development to reduce losses/improve function Number of ratios may reduce Transmission Technologies & Systems Torsional damping technologies to reduce impact of downsizing Low loss wet clutch (dry clutch enabled by hybridisation) Low loss hydraulics (AT/DCT,/CVT) 48V actuation & pump drives Clutch by wire (coasting/sailing, abuse mgmt, improved NVH) (MT) Low mass gears, shafts, synchros, casings & differentials Control strategy (& skip-shifting for 8+ speeds) Waste heat for t/m warmup (exhaust, coolant) 2015 2020 2025 2030 Future engine technologies will deliver more efficient operation over wider speed & load range fewer speed ratios required for efficiency Opportunity for torque ratios & speed ratios? Transmission Downsizing torque ratios on demand 10 9 8 7 6 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 RD.16/51301.1 2035 13
Improvement RD.16/51301.1 14 Potential for new technologies & future capabilities applied to both e- Machines and Power Electronics to improve efficiency & reduce costs Electric Machines Elevated temperature Power Electronics Graphene Engine temperature No cooling Additive manufacture Direct cooling Direct cooling Diamond Synch Rel + ferrite Oil cooling Inertial Storage Novel rotor manufacturing 35,000rpm 100,000rpm Direct cooling SJ Si SiC GaN Advanced PWM Interleaved converters Fully adaptive Common circuits 2015 2017 2019 2022 2025 2015 2017 2019 2022 2025 Increasing speed provides power density benefits Use of the electric machine as an inertial store can improve system efficiency and reduce peak demand Elimination of rare-earth components reduces cost Wide band-gap devices significantly improve efficiency Advanced direct cooling systems in the short term & high temperature operation in the longer term Ultra high efficiency hardware and control designs
15 The combination of downsizing, boosting and low voltage electrification can deliver significant economy benefits 35% Engine Downsizing +14% +12+xV Micro Hybrid +Revised Gearing +Re-matched Turbo 25% Engine Downsizing +48V Micro Hybrid +15% +48V Ancillaries +Advanced Thermal/Oil Systems +10% +5% +10% +e-turbine Energy Recovery (credit) +2% +5% +3% HyBoost Intelligent Electrification 12+xV e-boost Micro Hybrid ~95 g/km CO 2 +3% ADEPT Advanced 48V Diesel Electric Powertrain ~ 70-75 g/km CO 2 Key short to medium term fuel efficiency improvements via downsizing and varying degrees of electrification Important to identify and combine complimentary systems
16 Technology Demonstrators from Ricardo Research Ultimate PHEV where IC engine provides average road load power would substantially change base engine requirements & Attributes Increasing degree of vehicle electrification Micro Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug in Hybrid Range Extended EV? Pure EV Unless there is a breakthrough in Biofuel availability/economics, the Gasoline/Plug-in Hybrid likely to be a primary route to higher performance/heavier vehicles Example: Series/parallel hybrid system based on Twin Air (875cc) engine & Ricardo generator & transmission (Engine provides average road load power) Engine connects directly to driveline when appropriate Traction Motor Fuel 2 Cyl Engine
17 Contents The Great Divide: Policy Makers & Engineers Environmental Challenges & Responsibilities Future Energy Vectors for Propulsion Systems Technology Options Heavy & Light Duty Impacts from i-mobility
18 Future Powertrain choices may well be more dependent on new Ownership/Business models than technology developments Powertrain Technology Ownership Models i-mobility Current ownership models require powertrains with very broad utility Expansion in i-mobility technologies will increase on-demand services: Significant impact on traditional ownership models Increased use of on demand vehicles enables more dedicated utility: Electric Vehicles for inner city use Plug-in for urban mobility Advanced ICE/Low GHG fuels for intercity Change in business/ownership models may have more impact on future powertrain diversity than technology advances