1 epowertrain landscape Outlook 2020 CESA Congress 2012 Paris, December 04th, 2012
A. xev markets European Union/Germany, USA and China: Ambitious governmental targets will not be reached 2020: max. 600k (PH)EV on the road in Germany B. Technologies used: BEV only niche, PHEV most important Parallel configuration dominates in Europe, Powersplit in the US C. xev value-add structure: OEMs with high inhouse share in xev programs Supplier business in next generation, end of the decade This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of the statements made in this document. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3
MARKET OUTLOOK We define xev types by the possible customer functions Each xev type can use different powertrain layouts Definition xev powertrain types ICE-drive Boost/ Recuperation E-drive Range Extension BSG ISG Start-stop NOT IN FOCUS Hybrid light Full Hybrid (FHEV) Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) Range Extender (RE) 3-20 30-70 70-130 30-130 Parallel Powersplit Twin drive 1) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) 30-130 (<5 km) (>5 km) 2) E-axle ELECTRIC POWER [kw] 3) CUSTOMER FUNCTIONS POWERTRAIN LAYOUTS 1) Only very short distances with low speed 2) Dependent on used powertrain layout not always possible 3) Power range mainstream applications niche applications with higher power possible Source: Roland Berger 4
MARKET OUTLOOK EU and Chinese xev market are primarily legislation-driven USA is primarily driven by customer pull Market drives xevs (base scenario, 2020) EU USA China 1 2 3 PUSH PULL All OEMs will need xevs to comply with 2020 CO 2 emissions targets ICE improvements and light weight measures alone not sufficient From a cost benefit perspective hybrid light and PHEVs are most favorable Hybrid lights will become TCO neutral, and enable additional functions No TCO advantage for FHEV, PHEV, BEV powertrains In larger cars, there will be customer willingness to pay Only niche demand for BEVs CAFE emissions targets can be met by utilizing ICE improvements and some weight reduction However, ZEV-mandate and the ability to earn credits will lead OEMs to build some PHEVs and EVs No TCO advantage for xev powertrains due to low fuel costs However, some customers are willing to pay for xevs for environmental image reasons Technology penetration is only driven by government targets for PHEVs and EVs Segments fuel consumption targets can be met by optimized ICE in all segments Fleet emissions targets are possible and will drive market Almost no customer pull for xevs except in luxury segment No willingness to pay for "green" image in luxury segment innovativeness of xevs is an important purchase criteria No TCO advantage due to low fuel cost Source: Interviews; Roland Berger 5
MARKET OUTLOOK In a base scenario 2020, xevs will only represent a minor share of powertrains Subsidies can impact the market significantly xev market share Europe, USA and China, 2020 [%] Base scenario Market regulation and customer pull driven Optimistic scenario Market subsidy driven 70.1% 69.1% 25.8% 94.7% 96.9% 24.4% 92.0% 95.8% 0.2% 2.5% 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 3.9% 2.1% 0.5% 3.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.8% 0.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1 2 3 1 2 3 Conventional Hybrid Light FHEV PHEV BEV/RE Source: Roland Berger 6
MARKET OUTLOOK - EUROPE All OEMs will need xevs to meet 2020 EU CO 2 emissions target - even in an aggressive ICE optimization scenario EU CO 2 emissions 2020 w/o xevs for selected OEMs [g/km] 94 88 98 93 102 93 95 93 98 96 100 96 108 101 2) 3) 106 101 OEM CO 2 emission target 2020 1) Following the EU Commission proposal 2) High SUV share in fleet 3) High share of large vehicle Comments Calculation of OEM fleet CO 2 emissions is based on the following assumptions 100% penetration of most efficient ICE-technology in all segments No change in diesel penetration in the segments no impact of EUR 6 Aggressive reduction of driving resistance (vehicle weight, tires, air resistance) The forecasted OEM specific segment shift is considered But will usually only have marginal impact The OEM CO 2 emissions target consider a weight dependence of a = 0.0333 1) Source: Roland Berger 7
MARKET OUTLOOK - EUROPE Hybrid light will become at least TCO neutral Buyers of large/ luxury vehicles will be willing to pay for full hybrids and PHEVs Pull factors for xevs Europe, 2020 Vehicle size Luxury Large Medium Small Mini CO 2 emissions limits in company car fleets Esp. sport cars Light Full PHEV EV xev type TCO neutral/advantage to best ICE-technology Willingness to pay Other reason Comments Willingness to pay in large and luxury segment is driven by Social pressure to be environmental compliant Additional functions enabled by xev powertrains (e.g. comfort startstop, idle AC) Most companies to introduce CO 2 emission limits within their company car fleets Source: Interviews; Roland Berger 8
TECHNOLOGIES For light hybrids, BSG will become important RWD/AWD vehicles will be based on parallel or powersplit FWD with system diversity Overview Powertrain layout 1 Hybrid light 2 Full hybrid 3 PHEV 4 EV SMALL FWD BSG (high share with 48V) E-axles E-axles MID-SIZE FWD Parallel (P2) Parallel Axis parallel Twin drive Powersplit 1) STANDARD- DRIVE/AWD Parallel (P2) Powersplit 1) E-axles 1) Incl. Two-mode Main technology Niche technology Source: Interviews; Roland Berger 13
VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE OEMs will have high inhouse share in xev programs to learn Supplier business in next generation, end of the decade OEM and supplier roles in xev programs (illustrative) Hybrid light FHEV/ PHEV EV OEM competencies Business for supplier 2012 2015 2020 Gen. 2 Gen. 3 Gen. 2 High value-add inhouse to learn Gen. 1 Gen. 3 Gen. 1 Gen. 2 Gen. 1 Serial development Roll-out niche program Roll-out major program Comments OEMs aim for inhouse development and a high inhouse value-added in first and second generation xev programs in order to gain system and cost knowledge With higher volumes and introduction of new technology generations (after 2019/2020) OEMs will award major programs to suppliers Especially with global production of xev powertrains and components, suppliers will play a major role Source: Interviews; Roland Berger 19
VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE In a base scenario, the epowertrain component market 2020 is EUR >12 bn Captive share is still a question mark Value xev components 1) EU, USA and China, 2020 [EUR bn] Base scenario Market regulation and customer pull driven Optimistic scenario Market subsidy driven 6.7 5.5 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 2.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 3.7 0.9 0.8 1.7 0.3 1.9 1.6 2.3 0.9 4.6 1.4 1.1 1.6 0.4 4.9 1.2 1.0 2.3 0.4 EU USA China EU USA China E-Motor PE Battery Other 1) Components for vehicles sold in EU, China, and USA, passenger cars only Source: Roland Berger 20
21 Please contact us for further information CONTACT Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Senior Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH Automotive Competence Center Loeffelstraße 46 70597 Stuttgart Germany Phone +49 711 3275-7421 Mobile +49 160 744-7421 mailto:wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com