Executive Summary CONNECTING FOR GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS Florida s Super Region Prepared for The Tampa Bay Partnership and Central Florida Partnership by the City 702 Urban Design Studio at the University of Pennsylvania
A Window of Opportunity Proposed Network by 2020 Proposed Network by 2030 Ideal Network The new investments in high speed rail and local transit in Tampa Bay and Central Florida are an opportunity to create a Super Region that will be competitive with leading regional economies in the United States and in Europe, Japan, Korea, and China. However, the benefits of transportation investment are not automatic. Unless land use, conservation and other development policies are changed to take advantage of the transportation initiatives, the region could face an unsustainable future. This report outlines the two alternatives before the Super Region: the trend if the transportation investments have only a minimal impact, and an alternative that uses the new connections to create a globally competitive Super Region while saving the essential elements of the region s matchless natural environment. This report also shows how transportation-related development can transform important locations in the Super Region, including downtown Tampa and downtown Orlando; new innovative industry centers in Polk County, at the Space Coast, and near the Orlando International Airport; the Gateway district in Pinellas County and multi-modal centers in Sarasota/Bradenton and Daytona Beach. Imagine the Economic Power of Leveraging and Linking These Assets Florida's Proposed High speed Rail Network The Trend The official population projections for the state of Florida show the Super Region growing from 7.2 million people today to 11.2 million by 2030 and 14.4 million by 2050. Despite the recent economic downturn, the long-term development pattern is not expected to change significantly. The U.S. population will rise by more than 100 million people by 2050 and a substantial amount of the increase is expected to come to Florida. Road and highway-dependent developments in Florida are already reaching their limits, and traffic congestion will increase dramatically as population doubles. The natural environment is already under stress and the very qualities that attract people to Florida could be at risk as more people continue to arrive. An Alternative to the Trend People in the Super Region recognize that current growth patterns are unsustainable, and there have been substantial public involvement processes in both the Tampa Bay and Central Florida region to reach consensus about managing future development. The PennDesign study covers the whole Super Region and adds three elements to this ongoing discussion. The first is the high speed rail network, which had not been considered a realistic option until recently. The second is a comprehensive system of local transit throughout the Super Region, incorporating existing plans but enlarging and coordinating them with the high speed rail network. The third additional element is a proactive proposal for environmental conservation, which identifies the most critical areas that must be preserved if the natural environment is to be sustained within the Super Region. In addition, this report identifies energy and water conservation policies that will be needed to support twice as many people, and identifies locations where adaptation to sea-level rise may be needed. Florida s High Speed Rail Network: The link from Tampa to Orlando will be a critical first step, but it is the extension Using computer-aided modeling techniques, the PennDesign studio has mapped growth in the Super Region following current trends and the official population projections. The computer maps show that the amount of urbanized land in the Super Region could grow from 1.2 million acres now to about 3 million acres by 2050. In the process, urban growth could overwhelm more than 300,000 acres of land identified in this study as of critical environmental importance, and 1.5 million acres of agricultural land would also be lost. Projections by the Florida Department of show that this kind of low-density urbanization would push the entire highway and arterial road network into systemic failure. of high speed rail from Orlando to Miami in the next phase which will create the beginning of a new statewide transportation system. We strongly recommend that the extension of high speed rail to Miami follow the Beach Line to I-95 and then south to Miami, for two reasons: this route is vital to connecting the existing communities and industries of the east coast to the Super Region and it will be a key link in creating the future Miami Jacksonville connection with an important station at Daytona Beach. The PennDesign study shows that it is imperative that the full Florida high speed rail network be completed by 2030, as the full system includes the north-south segments along I-75, which will make important connections for Sarasota and Bradenton within the Super Region. Local Transit Connections: This PennDesign report strongly recommends that the first phase of the SunRail line be extended to connect to the high speed rail station that will be located in the new South Terminal of the Orlando International Airport. This link can be accomplished via an existing rail right-of-way, and will secure the benefits of 2 For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org 3
2006 Congestion Map 2060 Congestion Map connecting downtown Orlando and other SunRail stations to both the high speed rail network and the airport. We also recommend that the first phase of Tampa Bay Area Regional Authority (TBARTA) include an express link from the downtown Tampa high speed rail station to Westshore and the Tampa International Airport. Connecting high speed rail to airports is an important element in the transportation strategy of successful regions around the globe, because it permits some local connections to be made more efficiently by rail, also relieving congestion at airports. The PennDesign study identifies future links to high speed rail for the Sarasota/Bradenton, Clearwater, Melbourne, and Daytona airports, as well as the Tampa and Orlando International Airports. The PennDesign study recommends that the connections to Pinellas County from the downtown Tampa high speed rail station and the Tampa International Airport be made via TBARTA by incorporating the transit lines into the planned reconstruction of the I-275 bridge. While an extension of the high speed rail line to St. Petersburg is shown in some State of Florida plans, we have become convinced by arguments from local officials in the area that it will be faster and much more economical to link Pinellas County into the statewide transit system via TBARTA. Proactive Environmental : Florida has been a leader in environmental conservation using both statewide land-acquisition programs and programs at the county level. But the projected doubling of population in the Super Region means that conservation continues to be an urgent matter. Using computer-aided mapping techniques, the PennDesign studio has identified the land areas that have the highest priority for conservation using four criteria: preserving biodiversity, securing water supplies, protecting wetlands, and keeping agriculture an important part of Florida s economy. This mapping process identified 3 million acres within the Super Region as being of critical importance to the preservation of a sustainable natural environment. 1.7 million acres (57%) of this ideal conservation network are already protected. 300,000 acres are at risk from current development trends and their preservation should have the highest priority, and the future of the remaining million acres of the Ideal Network should also be secured. It should be possible to keep drinking water consumption and energy use close to current levels as population doubles, but doing this will require big changes in current practices. For example, only about half of current domestic water use requires purified drinking water, which indicates the ability to support a larger population if drinking water consumption is reduced by conservation measures like rainwater harvesting and reuse of gray water for irrigation and sanitation. Alternative energy sources like solar hot water heating and more efficient use of energy also have the potential to hold energy generation needs close to current levels as population increases. Finally, looking ahead for 40 years means that climate change factors should to be considered, particularly for low-lying areas subject to sea-level rise. Adaptation to sea-level rise is possible, but it requires long-term planning. 2005 Trend Map 2050 Trend Map Alternative Map of 2030 Alternative Map of 2050 4 For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org 5
Nine Opportunity Areas Essential Actions by 2015 The PennDesign Studio has looked in more detail at nine representative areas across the Super Region where high speed rail or transit connections can create significant development opportunities. Downtown Tampa: The downtown Tampa high speed rail station can become the core of a 20-block mixed-use center that incorporates the planned Encore development, which should be redesigned to take advantage of its proximity to the rail station now that high speed rail has become a reality. This development also provides an opportunity to complete downtown Tampa s open space network via a landscaped corridor along Laurel Street. Pinellas Gateway: Bringing the TBARTA line and an internal circulator to the Gateway district in Pinellas County creates an opportunity to turn this Edge City into a more complete, mixeduse urban district. Our study proposes using the street edges of parking lots for residential buildings with retail or other uses on the ground floors, with the remainder of the parking lots being given a second level to accommodate existing and new demand. Adding residential uses balances traffic because the residential traffic is outbound during the inbound peak hour, and vice versa. This development strategy is similar to what is happening at Tyson s Corner, Virginia a prototype Edge City - as transit is extended there. Sarasota/Bradenton: The high speed rail line south from Tampa is planned to run along the I-75 corridor. The PennDesign studio recommends a station for the high speed line at University Parkway, where there can be a direct transit link due west to the Sarasota Bradenton Airport. Midway between the high speed rail and the Airport along University Parkway we recommend a stop on the TBARTA line, which is projected to run on an existing railway right-of-way. Land should be reserved within the Lakeland Ranch development just west of the future high speed rail station to accommodate a mixed-use center related to the station, and plans should be made for transit oriented development at the TBARTA station, as shown in our proposal. Polk County Station: The PennDesign Studio recommends the Polk Parkway location for the high speed rail station, incorporating the proposed technical campus of the University of South Florida. Our plan shows the existing campus design moved to a more central location, a short walk from the high Using computer-aided mapping techniques incorporating the high speed rail network and new transit lines, ascribing higher, but conservative, density estimates to the areas near transportation, assuming the preservation of open land in the Ideal Network, and using the official population projections results in 2 million acres being urbanized by 2050, instead of the 3 million acres projected in the trend model: a difference of a million acres saved from development and preserved for agriculture or conservation. Only 130,000 acres of conservation land need to be acquired in advance speed rail station, and surrounded by areas planned for hightech research and development. We also propose a light-rail line to connect the Polk County Station to Lakeland and other cities in Polk County. Downtown Orlando: There is an existing plan for a network of cultural districts in downtown Orlando. The PennDesign studio proposes adding a multi-modal transit station and related mixed-use development to this downtown plan at the site of the proposed SunRail and existing LYNX stations. This plan will help link important cultural destinations to an improved transit system. Airport Science City: The developers at Lake Nona, just to the south and east of the Orlando International Airport, a creating a Science City with a mix of education, medical care facilities and laboratories for scientific research. The airport owns an additional 1,800 acres just to the south of the Lake Nona development. We propose a plan that connects the two properties into one integrated design concept, greatly expanding the potential development opportunity. This location will be a short distance by road and only one or two local transit stops away from the south terminal at Orlando International Airport which will also house stops on the high speed rail and SunRail lines, making this location readily accessible both locally and globally. Daytona Beach: The route of the high speed rail line on Florida s east coast is projected to follow I-95. We propose a station at Daytona Beach at the location of both the International Speedway and the Daytona Beach Airport, with a mixed-use development near the station on land which is largely owned by the airport. The PennDesign Studio also proposes a light-rail line along International Speedway Boulevard running east to the proposed AMTRAK station and the beach and west to the downtown DeLand SunRail station via an existing highway right of way. Cape Canaveral: The PennDesign studio proposes a high speed rail station south of the Beach Line on I-95, where there is the most direct connection to the Cruise Ship Terminal at Port Canaveral. We also show a light-rail transit network connecting major destinations in the area. Melbourne: The Melbourne Station on the high speed rail is shown close to the Melbourne Airport, with a link that also connects to a proposed AMTRAK station. Mapping the Alternative to the Trend: A Million Fewer Acres Urbanized of development in this scenario. While high speed rail and transit require substantial capital investment, and the 130,000 acres may need to be purchased to secure their conservation, urbanizing a million fewer acres will save a lot of money. For example, assuming that 20 percent of the additional million acres urbanized under the trend scenario would be needed for access and internal roads, and using a Florida Department of estimate that the cost of new roads would average 10 million dollars a mile, the amount of roads not needed represents a saving of 270 billion dollars. Complete first-phase High Speed Rail line from downtown Tampa to Orlando Airport Build SunRail including the extension to the High Speed Rail station at the Orlando Airport Terminal Build light-rail line from the Orlando Airport Terminal to the Airport City at Lake Nona Build First Phase TBARTA line from the Tampa High Speed Rail station to Westshore and Tampa Airport Rebuild North-Bound I-275 bridge including space for two tracks of TBARTA line to Pinellas County Build Pinellas County first-phase TBARTA lines to Gateway, Clearwater, St. Petersburg Complete Lakeland Multi-Modal Freight Transfer Terminal and its rail connections to the Port of Tampa Adopt an Ideal Network for the 13-county Super Region Prepare a trend development model for the 13-county Super Region Identify priority conservation land included in the Ideal Network that are shown to be at risk by the trend model before 2020, and take actions to protect this land Adopt plans for coordinating and integrating education and workforce development across the super-region Adopt plans for linking local and county tourism plans into a comprehensive tourism strategy for the super region Adopt land-use plans and special development district controls for station areas around first phase High Speed Rail stations and for stops on firstphase TBARTA and SunRail corridors Adopt a Super Regional Strategic Approach integrating education and workforce institutions, sports destinations, entertainment and tourism destinations with, innovative industries and other economic clusters Adopt Super Regional Water Plans, begin implementation Essential Actions by 2020 Complete High Speed Rail line from the Orlando Airport to Miami via the Beach Line to I-95 and I-95 to Port St. Lucie Complete light rail from downtown Orlando multimodal center to the University of Central Florida Complete Orange Blossom Line and Convention Center Light Rail Extend TBARTA to the University of South Florida from Tampa High Speed Rail Connect Canaveral High Speed Rail station to Port Canaveral via rail or busway Connect Melbourne High Speed Rail station to Airport, AMTRAK via rail or busway Identify priority conservation land included in the Ideal Network that are shown to be at risk by the trend model before 2030, and take actions to protect this land Continue implementing Water Plan Continue implementing Energy Plan Adopt land-use plans and special development district controls for station areas around second phase High Speed Rail stations and for stops on second-phase TBARTA and SunRail corridors, and the additional Orlando region transit corridors Continue implementing a coordinated economic diversification and enhancement plan Essential Actions by 2030 Complete High Speed Rail Lines from Miami to Jacksonville along I-95 alignment Complete High Speed Rail Lines from Gainesville to Fort Myers along I-75 alignment Complete TBARTA Lines Connect Daytona High Speed Rail to DeLand via Speedway Boulevard Light Rail, which will also connect to AMTRAK, Daytona Beach Connect Sarasota/Bradenton High Speed Rail to airport and TBARTA via University Avenue Light Rail Complete preservation of Ideal Network Continue implementing Water Plan Continue implementing Energy Plan Continue implementing a coordinated economic diversification and enhancement plan Complete adaptation plans for projected Sea Level rise 6 For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org 7
Penn Design Team: Yemi Adediji Jing Cai Master of Landscape Architecture Christian Gass Angela He Liyuan Huang Lou Huang Dae Hyun Kang Marta Mackiewicz Nelson Peng Steve Scott Cara Seabury Gretchen Sweeney Keiko Vuong Tya Winn Fiona Zhu Certificate in Geographic Information Systems Professors Jonathan Barnett Andrew Dobshinsky Partner Organizations: Central Florida Development Council, Inc. Central Florida Partnership Florida Department of Districts 1, 5 and 7 Florida High Tech Corridor Council, Inc. Project Managed By: myregion.org Progress Energy Tampa Bay Partnership University of Central Florida Metropolitan Center for Regional Studies WORKFORCE CENTRAL FLORIDA 8 For the complete report, visit www.myregion.org