The global EV market: where to from here? Colin McKerracher Head of Advanced Transport Bloomberg New Energy Finance @colinmckerrache July 10, 2017
Analysis to help you understand the future of energy Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1 July 10, 2017
Global EV sales by region 2011-2017e, thousand units YoY growth Thousand units 1,200 +69% +40% +56% +55% +47% 1,000 800 We expect passenger EV sales to be just over 1m in 2017 695 21 1,018 46 218 600 400 200 0 448 158 283 23 288 32 115 209 206 29 122 27 116 182 435 36 283 30 96 56 96 66 114 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW Note: Includes highway-capable PHEV and BEV passenger vehicles only; RoW is Rest of World 2 July 10, 2017
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines 3 July 10, 2017
BEV model availability, 2008-20 SUVs/Trucks Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans 4 July 10, 2017 Land Rover Defender Mahindra everito SAIC E-Lavida CODA EV Toyota RAV4 Fiat 500e Mitsubishi i-miev BYD e6 Smith Edison 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350+ Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is speculated. Venturi Fetish Honda Clarity BAIC EU260 JAC iev4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-golf Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe ZE BMW mini e Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV200 Peugeot Partner M-B B-Class Hyundai Ioniq Tata IRIS Renault DeZir ChangAn Eado M-B Vito Trumpchi GS4 Qianto Q50 M-B SLS edrive VW e-up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 VW Budd-e Geely Emgrand ChangAn EM80 Renault Kangoo Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi ex Tesla Model Y* Aston Martin RapidE Mullen 700e NIO ES8* Tesla Roadster GLM G4 Exagon Furtive Tesla Model 3 VW e-bulli Chevy Bolt Audi E-tron Sportback Nissan Leaf 2* Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model S VW I.D. Chehejia SUV* NIO ES9 LeEco LeSEE Tesla Model X Audi R8 E-tron 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 VW I.D. BUZZ VW I.D. CROZZ Volvo 40.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport Tesla Roadster* NIO EVE Lucid Air Faraday FF91
Fuel economy regulations for US, China and Europe L/100 km 9.0 8.0 7.0 US 6.0 5.0 China: 4.9 US: 4.2 EU 4.0 3.0 EU: 4.1 China 2.0 1.0 Achieved fuel consumption Future standard 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Note: The fuel economy targets have been normalised to the CAFE testing procedure. US targets are for passenger cars only. Source: EPA, NHTSA, EU, ICCT 5 July 10, 2017
China s vehicle sales according to the recent 2025 plan Millions of vehicles sold 19.3 22.0 23.5 24.6 28.0 0.5 30 2 35 7 19.3 22.0 23.4 24.3 27.5 28 28 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025e Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6 July 10, 2017
BNEF 2016 battery pack price survey results, 2010-2016 ($ per kwh) 1000-20% -20% -7% -10% -35% -22% 800 642 599 540 350 273 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Notes: This includes cells plus pack prices. For years where there were two surveys, the data in this chart is an average for the year. 7 July 10, 2017 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Short term EV sales forecast EV % of new car sales 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Europe U.S. China Rest of the World 8 July 10, 2017
Long term EV sales forecast to 2040 million cars per year 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Rest of Europe France UK Germany Japan Rest of World China 0 US 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 July 10, 2017
Long term EV sales forecast to 2040 million cars per year 140 120 100 54% 80 43% 60 24% 40 20 8% 1% 3% 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ICE sales, total EV sales, total EV % of new sales Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10 July 10, 2017
Main factors that could derail global EV sales growth 11 July 10, 2017
For EV energy market impacts: think small, not big 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 CHINA S LOW SPEED EV MARKET SHANDONG PROVINCE EXAMPLE Typically two-seater Top speed: 60km/h Cost: $3,000-7,000 Unsubsidized, unregulated and growing very rapidly Template for emerging economies? Source: Times of India, Shandong Motor Vehicle Industrial Bureau, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Mitsubishi 12 July 10, 2017-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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