Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Million Tonnes (MT) Million Tonnes (MT) Steel Market Intelligence www.michelleapplebaum.com info@steelmarketintelligence.com (847) 433-8517 Steel Market Intelligence June Chinese Steel Exports Hit Two-Year High Summary. Breaking a two year record, June net Chinese steel exports jumped 5.4% to 4.09 million tonnes (mt) from 3.88 mt in May. The combination of near-record production in the face of waning steel demand is leading to post-recession record export levels and unlike mid-2010 when Chinese exports were hitting similar high levels, the rest of the world economies are already struggling with weaker steel demand. Newly released CISA estimates that came out today indicate that June production dropped a nominal 0.46% from 1.98 million tonnes per day (mtpd) in May, however, CISA estimates have generally been too low, so we suspect we'll see "flat" Chinese steel production in June. Beijing Backfiring. While Beijing's multiple stimulus-attempts are good news longer-term for steel in China, in the short term, we believe that stimulus announcements are backfiring, keeping production too high, as steelmakers wait for promised new orders to come in. Pricing in China has deteriorated dramatically, with benchmark HRC down some 7% since recent peak in April, and down 15% from the post-recession high in August 2011. Outlook. We expect to see Chinese exports continue to rise in coming months on continued overproduction. 4.5 Figure 1. China vs. Global Steel Production, January 2005 - Current 2.5 8.0 Figure 2. Chinese Net Exports, August 2008 - Current 7.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 3.5 1.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 2.5 0.5-2.0 World Production Chinese Production Please see the disclosures and disclaimers at the end of this report.
Figure 5. Chinese Finished Steel Imports, 2002-Current Ja nua ry 1.49 2.99 100.7% 3.25 8.7% 1.92-40.8% 1.57-18.3% 1.48-6.2% 1.43-3.1% 0.87-39.2% 1.35 55.2% 1.64 21.5% 0.92-43.9% Fe b rua ry 1.30 2.46 89.2 3.36 36.6 1.59-52.8 1.25-21.0 1.22-2.7 1.25 2.5 1.09-12.8 1.14 4.6 1.02-10.5 1.22 19.6 Ma rch 2.12 3.13 47.6 3.46 10.5 2.46-29.0 1.79-27.3 1.58-11.8 1.51-4.1 1.27-15.9 1.63 28.3 1.53-6.1 1.27-17.0 Ma rq 4.91 8.58 74.7 10.07 17.4 5.97-40.7 4.61-22.7 4.27-7.4 4.19-1.9 3.23-22.9 4.12 27.6 4.19 1.7 3.41-18.6 Ap ril 2.36 3.39 43.6 3.39 0.0 2.56-24.4 1.67-34.7 1.63-2.7 1.50-7.8 1.62 8.0 1.50-7.4 1.37-8.7 1.27-7.3 Ma y 2.09 3.05 45.9 2.13-30.2 2.16 1.5 1.46-32.6 1.38-5.4 1.34-2.9 1.65 23.1 1.36-17.6 1.28-5.9 1.32 3.1 June 2.35 3.48 48.1 2.44-29.9 2.52 3.4 1.67-34.0 1.41-15.4 1.26-10.6 1.63 29.4 1.47-9.8 1.20-18.4 1.10-8.3 JunQ 6.80 9.92 45.9 7.96-19.8 7.25-8.9 4.80-33.8 4.42-7.9 4.10-7.2 4.90 19.5 4.33-11.6 3.85-11.1 3.69-4.2 July 2.56 3.60 40.6 2.22-38.3 2.13-3.9 1.53-28.3 1.39-9.1 1.44 3.6 1.74 20.8 1.40-19.5 1.24-11.4 Aug ust 2.52 2.77 9.9 1.86-32.9 2.15 15.7 1.62-24.5 1.46-10.1 1.33-8.9 1.59 19.5 1.35-15.1 1.35 0.0 Se p te mb e r 2.18 3.33 52.8 1.78-46.5 2.49 39.9 1.58-36.7 1.43-9.3 1.27-11.2 1.91 50.4 1.32-30.9 1.33 0.8 Se p Q 7.26 9.70 33.6 5.86-39.6 6.78 15.6 4.73-30.2 4.28-9.5 4.04-5.6 5.24 29.7 4.07-22.3 3.92-3.7 Octo b e r 1.60 2.84 77.5 1.63-42.6 1.93 18.6 1.39-28.1 1.21-12.9 1.15-5.0 1.48 28.7 1.14-23.0 1.20 5.3 No ve mb e r 1.73 3.06 76.9 1.79-41.5 2.11 17.6 1.48-29.7 1.35-8.8 1.03-23.7 1.29 25.2 1.38 7.0 1.23-10.9 De ce mb e r 2.19 3.06 39.7 1.95-36.3 1.78-8.6 1.51-15.3 1.33-11.9 0.93-30.1 1.48 59.1 1.41-4.7 1.19-15.6 De cq 5.52 8.96 62.3 5.37-40.1 5.82 8.4 4.38-24.8 3.89-11.2 3.11-20.1 4.25 36.7 3.93-7.5 3.62-7.9 Full Ye a r 24.49 37.16 51.7% 29.26-21.3% 25.82-11.8% 18.51-28.3% 16.87-8.9% 15.43-8.5% 17.63 14.3% 16.43-6.8% 15.58-5.2% Figure 6. Chinese Finished Steel Exports, 2002-Current Ja nua ry 0.28 0.45 60.7% 0.58 28.9% 1.49 157.2% 1.81 21.1% 4.38 142.2% 4.14-5.4% 1.91-53.9% 2.89 51.3% 3.12 8.0% 3.73 19.6% Fe b rua ry 0.28 0.46 64.3 0.40-13.0 1.49 272.3 1.85 24.5 4.38 136.2 3.11-29.0 1.56-49.8 2.49 59.6 2.48-0.4 3.39 36.7 Ma rch 0.42 0.60 42.9 0.65 8.3 2.21 239.5 2.81 27.4 5.37 91.1 4.16-22.6 1.67-59.9 3.33 99.4 4.91 47.4 5.03 2.4 Ma rq 0.98 1.51 54.1 1.63 7.9 5.19 218.3 6.47 24.7 14.13 118.3 11.41-19.2 5.14-55.0 8.71 69.5 10.51 20.7 12.15 15.6 Ap ril 0.46 0.65 41.3 0.83 27.7 2.07 149.2 2.70 30.6 7.15 164.7 4.78-33.1 1.41-70.5 4.31 205.7 4.77 10.7 4.67-2.1 Ma y 0.40 0.68 70.0 1.01 48.5 2.12 109.5 3.50 65.2 6.17 76.5 5.56-9.9 1.35-75.7 4.94 265.9 4.76-3.6 5.23 9.9 June 0.38 0.67 76.3 1.09 62.7 2.20 101.9 4.42 101.0 6.36 43.8 5.22-17.9 1.43-72.6 5.62 293.0 4.29-23.7 5.22 21.7 JunQ 1.24 2.00 61.3 2.93 46.5 6.38 117.9 10.62 66.4 19.68 85.3 15.56-20.9 4.19-73.1 14.87 254.9 13.82-7.1 15.12 9.4 July 0.44 0.60 35.1 1.36 126.7 1.53 12.7 3.58 133.3 5.94 66.1 7.21 21.4 1.81-74.9 4.55 151.4 4.44-2.4 Aug ust 0.68 0.52-23.5 1.40 169.2 1.34-4.5 3.86 188.3 5.38 39.5 7.68 42.8 2.08-72.9 2.80 34.6 4.19 49.6 Se p te mb e r 0.58 0.53-8.6 1.31 147.2 1.36 3.6 4.07 199.7 4.44 9.1 6.67 50.2 2.47-63.0 3.01 21.9 4.21 39.9 Se p Q 1.70 1.65-3.2 4.07 146.7 4.23 3.9 11.50 172.0 15.76 37.0 21.56 36.8 6.36-70.5 10.36 62.9 12.84 23.9 Octo b e r 0.52 0.54 3.8 1.51 179.6 1.34-11.0 4.25 216.3 4.24-0.2 4.62 9.0 2.71-41.3 2.86 5.5 3.82 33.6 No ve mb e r 0.43 0.58 34.9 1.92 231.0 1.56-18.9 4.63 197.2 4.10-11.4 2.95-28.0 2.85-3.4 2.91 2.1 4.20 44.3 De ce mb e r 0.59 0.67 13.6 2.16 222.4 1.82-15.7 5.55 204.7 4.78-13.9 3.17-33.7 3.34 5.4 2.85-14.7 3.72 30.5 De cq 1.54 1.79 16.2 5.59 212.3 4.72-15.5 14.43 205.6 13.12-9.1 10.74-18.1 8.90-17.1 8.62-3.1 11.74 36.2 Full Ye a r 5.46 6.95 27.2% 14.22 104.6% 20.52 44.3% 43.01 109.6% 62.65 45.7% 59.23-5.5% 24.60-58.5% 42.56 73.0% 48.88 14.8% Steel Market Intelligence 2
Figure 7. Chinese Finished Steel Net Exports, 2002-Current Ja nua ry -1.21-2.54 109.9% -2.67 5.1% -0.43-83.8% 0.23-153.8% 2.90 1144.9% 2.71-6.5% 1.04-61.6% 1.54 48.1% 1.48-3.9% 2.81 89.9% Fe b rua ry -1.02-2.00 96.1-2.96 48.0-0.10-96.7 0.60-710.4 3.16 426.7 1.86-41.1 0.47-74.7 1.35 187.2 1.46 8.1 2.17 48.6 Ma rch -1.70-2.53 48.8-2.81 11.1-0.25-91.1 1.03-508.3 3.80 270.3 2.65-30.2 0.40-84.9 1.70 325.0 3.38 98.8 3.76 11.2 Ma rq -3.93-7.07 79.9-8.44 19.4-0.78-90.7 1.86-337.6 9.86 430.4 7.22-26.7 1.91-73.5 4.59 140.3 6.32 37.7 8.74 38.3 Ap ril -1.90-2.74 44.2-2.56-6.6-0.50-80.6 1.03-307.5 5.52 436.9 3.28-40.6-0.21-106.4 2.81-1,438.1 3.40 21.0 3.40 0.0 Ma y -1.69-2.37 40.2-1.12-52.7-0.05-95.8 2.04-4,459.1 4.79 135.1 4.22-11.9-0.30-107.1 3.58-1,293.3 3.48-2.8 3.91 12.4 June -1.97-2.81 42.6-1.35-52.0-0.32-76.1 2.76-955.7 4.95 79.5 3.96-20.0-0.20-105.1 4.15-2,175.0 3.09-25.5 4.12 33.3 JunQ -5.56-7.92 42.4-5.03-36.5-0.86-82.8 5.82-773.5 15.26 162.1 11.46-24.9-0.71-106.2 10.54-1,584.5 9.97-5.4 11.43 14.6 July -2.12-3.00 41.8-0.86-71.3-0.60-30.2 2.05-440.7 4.55 122.4 5.77 26.8 0.07-98.8 3.15 4,400.0 3.20 1.6 Aug ust -1.84-2.25 22.3-0.46-79.6-0.81 77.0 2.23-374.0 3.92 75.7 6.35 62.0 0.49-92.3 1.45 195.9 2.84 95.9 Se p te mb e r -1.60-2.80 75.0-0.47-83.2-1.13 141.1 2.49-319.9 3.01 20.8 5.40 79.4 0.56-89.6 1.69 201.8 2.88 70.4 Se p Q -5.56-8.05 44.9-1.79-77.8-2.55 42.3 6.77-365.6 11.48 69.6 17.52 52.6 1.12-93.6 6.29 461.6 8.92 41.8 Octo b e r -1.08-2.30 113.0-0.12-94.8-0.59 391.1 2.86-585.3 3.03 5.9 3.47 14.5 1.23-64.6 1.72 39.8 2.62 52.3 No ve mb e r -1.30-2.48 90.8 0.13-105.2-0.55-521.1 3.15-675.4 2.75-12.7 1.92-30.2 1.56-18.8 1.53-1.9 2.97 94.1 De ce mb e r -1.60-2.39 49.4 0.21-108.8 0.04-81.8 4.04 10,481.5 3.45-14.6 2.24-35.1 1.86-17.0 1.44-22.6 2.53 75.7 De cq -3.98-7.17 80.15 0.22-103.1-1.10-599.4 10.05-1,014.8 9.23-8.2 7.63-17.3 4.65-39.1 4.69 0.9 8.12 73.1 Full Ye a r -19.03-30.21 58.8% -15.04-50.2% -5.29-64.8% 24.50-562.8% 45.78 86.9% 43.80-4.3% 6.97-84.1% 26.13 274.9% 33.30 27.4% Figure 8. Chinese Semi-Finished Steel Imports, 2002-Current Ja nua ry 0.44 0.18-59.1% 0.45 150.0% 0.10-77.0% 0.02-83.3% 0.03 56.2% 0.02-26.1% 0.13 550.0% 0.03-76.9% 0.08 166.7% 0.02-75.0% February 0.17 0.14-17.6 0.56 300.0 0.15-72.6 0.03-77.8 0.03-11.8 0.02-33.3 0.31 1,450.0 0.05-83.9 0.04-20.0 0.04 0.0 March 0.55 0.42-23.6 0.77 83.3 0.14-82.1 0.05-61.9 0.02-56.3 0.02-12.7 0.46 2,200.0 0.08-82.6 0.07-12.5 0.04-42.9 Ma rq 1.16 0.74-36.2 1.78 140.5 0.39-77.9 0.10-73.7 0.08-22.9 0.06-25.0 0.90 1,400.0 0.16-82.2 0.19 18.8 0.10-47.4 Ap ril 0.64 0.22-65.6 0.73 231.8 0.12-82.9 0.03-72.3 0.02-33.4 0.02-12.8 0.67 3,250.0 0.06-91.0 0.03-50.0 0.02-33.3 Ma y 0.67 0.48-28.4 0.34-29.2 0.13-62.2 0.03-73.4 0.01-70.8 0.02 100.0 0.70 3,400.0 0.02-97.1 0.03 50.0 0.03 0.0 June 0.66 0.39-40.9 0.31-20.5 0.13-59.2 0.04-68.1 0.02-50.5 0.02 0.0 0.38 1,800.0 0.02-94.7 0.03 50.0 0.03 0.0 JunQ 1.97 1.09-44.7 1.38 26.6 0.38-72.5 0.11-71.3 0.05-51.5 0.06 13.3 1.75 2,816.7 0.10-94.3 0.09-10.0 0.08-11.1 July 0.53 0.46-13.2 0.28-39.1 0.12-58.6 0.03-76.9 0.01-62.7 0.01 0.0 0.57 5,600.0 0.05-91.2 0.04-20.0 Aug ust 0.21 0.75 257.1 0.07-90.7 0.08 11.2 0.05-40.7 0.01-78.3 0.01 0.0 0.35 3,400.0 0.08-77.1 0.08 0.0 Se p te mb e r 0.21 1.07 409.5 0.09-91.6 0.11 27.1 0.03-74.3 0.02-32.0 0.02 0.0 0.28 1,300.0 0.04-85.7 0.03-25.0 Se p Q 0.95 2.28 140.0 0.44-80.7 0.31-29.9 0.10-66.8 0.04-60.9 0.04 0.0 1.20 2,900.0 0.17-85.8 0.15-11.8 Octo b e r 0.15 0.63 320.0 0.08-87.3 0.05-35.0 0.02-61.5 0.01-50.0 0.02 100.0 0.33 1,550.0 0.06-81.8 0.05-16.7 No ve mb e r 0.17 0.56 229.4 0.06-89.3 0.11 75.4 0.02-81.0 0.01-50.0 0.01 0.0 0.30 2,900.0 0.08-73.3 0.11 37.5 De ce mb e r 0.20 0.59 195.0 0.09-84.7 0.07-16.9 0.02-77.3 0.03 76.5 0.08 166.7 0.09 12.5 0.07-22.2 0.04-42.9 De cq 0.52 1.78 242.3 0.23-87.1 0.23 0.9 0.06-75.4 0.05-12.3 0.11 120.0 0.72 554.5 0.21-70.8 0.20-4.8 Full Ye a r 4.60 5.89 28.0% 3.90-33.8% 1.31-66.3% 0.37-71.8% 0.24-35.1% 0.25 4.2% 4.59 1736.0% 0.64-86.1% 0.64 0.0 Steel Market Intelligence 3
Figure 9. Chinese Semi-Finished Steel Exports, 2002-Current January 0.04 0.13 225.0% 0.06-53.8% 0.56 829.0% 0.29-47.1% 0.57 93.1% 0.08-85.9% 0.00-100.0% 0.01 NM 0.00 NM 0.00 NM February 0.08 0.10 25.0 0.11 10.0 0.84 668.0 0.30-64.5 0.54 80.0 0.00-100.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM 0.00 NM March 0.08 0.24 200.0 0.10-58.3 1.46 1,362.4 0.30-79.2 0.67 120.7 0.01-98.5 0.00-100.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM 0.00 NM MarQ 0.20 0.47 135.0 0.27-42.6 2.86 961.0 0.90-68.6 1.78 98.1 0.09-94.9 0.00-100.0 0.01 NM 0.00 NM 0.00 NM April 0.07 0.24 242.9 0.20-16.7 0.80 300.7 0.48-40.0 0.87 81.4 0.01-98.9 0.00-100.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM 0.00 NM May 0.03 0.25 733.3 0.34 36.0 0.58 70.9 0.68 17.4 0.97 42.2 0.01-99.0 0.00-100.0 0.04 NM 0.00 NM 0.00 NM June 0.05 0.10 100.0 0.52 420.0 0.57 10.0 1.04 81.7 0.75-27.8 0.02-97.3 0.01-50.0 0.06 500.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM JunQ 0.15 0.59 293.3 1.06 79.7 1.95 84.4 2.20 12.7 2.59 17.7 0.04-98.5 0.01-75.0 0.10 900.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM July 0.12 0.07 0.0 0.20 185.7 0.65 224.4 0.83 28.4 0.90 8.1 0.23-74.4 0.00-100.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM August 0.17 0.06-64.7 0.47 683.3 0.38-19.9 1.13 198.8 0.34-69.8 0.56 64.7 0.00-100.0 0.02 NM 0.00 NM September 0.18 0.08-55.6 0.64 700.0 0.14-78.4 1.07 673.8 0.35-67.2 0.21-40.0 0.00-100.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM SepQ 0.47 0.21-55.3 1.31 523.8 1.16-11.2 3.03 160.1 1.59-47.5 1.00-37.1 0.00-100.0 0.02 NM 0.00 NM October 0.18 0.03-83.3 0.69 2,200.0 0.16-76.9 0.93 484.6 0.18-80.6 0.11-38.9 0.00-100.0 0.01 NM 0.00 NM November 0.14 0.08-42.9 0.99 1,137.5 0.39-60.3 1.48 276.3 0.17-88.5 0.03-82.4 0.02-33.3 0.00 NM 0.00 NM December 0.19 0.08-57.9 1.55 1,837.5 0.53-65.6 0.50-6.3 0.13-74.0 0.02-84.6 0.01-50.0 0.00 NM 0.00 NM DecQ 0.51 0.19-62.7 3.23 1,600.0 1.09-66.4 2.91 168.0 0.48-83.5 0.16-66.7 0.03-81.3 0.01-66.7 0.00 NM Full Year 1.33 1.46 9.8% 5.87 302.1% 7.07 20.4% 9.04 27.9% 6.43-28.9% 1.29-79.9% 0.04-96.9% 0.14 250.0% 0.00 NM Figure 10. Chinese Semi-Finished Steel Net Exports, 2002-Current Ja nua ry -0.40-0.05-87.5% -0.39 680.0% 0.45-216.4% 0.28-38.9% 0.54 95.4% 0.06-88.9% -0.13-316.7% -0.02-84.6% -0.08 300.0% -0.02-75.0% Fe b rua ry -0.09-0.04-55.6-0.45 1,025.0 0.69-253.7 0.27-61.5 0.51 91.7-0.02-103.9-0.31 1,450.0-0.05-83.9-0.04-20.0-0.04 0.0 Ma rch -0.47-0.18-61.7-0.67 272.2 1.32-297.7 0.25-80.9 0.65 157.5-0.01-101.5-0.46 4,500.0-0.08-82.6-0.07-12.5-0.04-42.9 Ma rq -0.96-0.27-71.9-1.51 459.3 2.47-263.6 0.80-67.8 1.70 113.8 0.03-98.2-0.90-3,100.0-0.15-83.3-0.19 26.7-0.10-47.4 Ap ril -0.57 0.02-103.5-0.53-2,750.0 0.68-227.7 0.45-34.0 0.85 90.2-0.01-101.2-0.67 6,600.0-0.06-91.0-0.03-50.0-0.02-33.3 Ma y -0.64-0.23-64.1 0.00-100.0 0.45 NA 0.65 43.1 0.96 48.2-0.01-101.0-0.70 6,900.0 0.02-102.9-0.03-250.0-0.03 0.0 June -0.61-0.29-52.5 0.21-172.4 0.45 112.1 1.00 124.2 0.73-26.9 0.00-100.0-0.37 NA 0.04-110.8-0.03-175.0-0.03 0.0 JunQ -1.82-0.50-72.5-0.32-36.0 1.58-592.2 2.09 32.9 2.54 21.3-0.02-100.8-1.74 8,600.0 0.00-100.0-0.09 NM -0.08-11.1 July -0.41-0.39-4.9-0.08-79.5 0.53-765.9 0.81 51.3 0.89 10.4 0.22-75.3-0.57-359.1-0.05-91.2-0.04-20.0 Aug ust -0.04-0.69 1,625.0 0.40-158.0 0.30-25.3 1.08 261.1 0.33-69.4 0.55 66.7-0.35-163.6-0.06-82.9-0.08 33.3 Se p te mb e r -0.03-0.99 3,200.0 0.55-155.6 0.02-95.7 1.04 4,294.1 0.33-68.2 0.19-42.4-0.28-247.4-0.04-85.7-0.03-25.0 Se p Q -0.48-2.07 331.3 0.87-142.0 0.86-1.7 2.92 241.9 1.55-47.0 0.96-38.1-1.20-225.0-0.15-87.5-0.15 0.0 Octo b e r 0.03-0.60-2,100.0 0.61-201.7 0.11-82.4 0.91 749.6 0.17-81.3 0.09-47.1-0.33-466.7-0.05-84.8-0.05 0.0 No ve mb e r -0.03-0.48 1,500.0 0.93-293.8 0.29-69.0 1.46 406.7 0.16-89.0 0.02-87.5-0.28-1,500.0-0.08-71.4-0.11 37.5 De ce mb e r -0.01-0.51 5,000.0 1.46-386.3 0.46-68.6 0.48 5.3 0.10-79.3-0.06-160.0-0.08 33.3-0.07-12.5-0.04-42.9 De cq -0.01-1.59 15,800.0 3.00-288.7 0.85-71.5 2.85 234.1 0.43-84.9 0.05-88.4-0.69-1,480.0-0.20-71.0-0.20 0.0 Full Ye a r -3.27-4.43 35.5% 2.04-146.0% 5.75 182.1% 8.67 50.7% 6.19-28.6% 1.04-83.2% -4.55-537.5% -0.50-89.0% -0.64 28.0% Steel Market Intelligence 4
Figure 11. Chinese Total Steel Imports, 2002-Current % 2001 2002 ch. 2003 ch. 2004 ch. 2005 ch. 2006 ch. 2007 ch. 2008 ch. 2009 ch. 2010 ch. 2011 ch. 2012 ch. Ja nua ry 1.84 1.93 4.9% 3.17 64.2% 3.70 16.7% 2.03-45.2% 1.59-21.6% 1.50-5.5% 1.45-3.5% 1.00-31.0% 1.38 38.0% 1.72 24.6% 0.94-45.3% Fe b rua ry 2.08 1.47-29.3 2.60 76.9 3.92 50.8 1.74-55.6 1.29-26.0 1.25-3.0 1.27 1.6 1.40 10.2 1.19-15.0 1.06-10.9 1.26 18.9 Ma rch 2.53 2.67 5.5 3.55 33.0 4.23 19.2 2.60-38.6 1.84-29.2 1.60-13.1 1.53-4.3 1.73 13.1 1.71-1.2 1.60-6.4 1.31-18.1 Ma rq 6.45 6.07-5.9 9.32 53.5 11.85 27.1 6.36-46.3 4.72-25.9 4.35-7.8 4.25-2.3 4.13-2.8 4.28 3.6 4.38 2.3 3.51-19.9 Ap ril 2.34 3.00 28.2 3.61 20.3 4.12 14.1 2.69-34.7 1.71-36.5 1.65-3.3 1.52-7.9 2.29 50.7 1.56-31.9 1.40-10.3 1.29-7.9 Ma y 1.99 2.76 38.7 3.53 27.9 2.47-30.0 2.29-7.3 1.49-34.8 1.39-6.9 1.36-2.2 2.35 72.8 1.38-41.3 1.31-5.1 1.35 3.1 June 2.38 3.01 26.5 3.87 28.6 2.75-28.9 2.65-3.7 1.71-35.6 1.43-16.2 1.28-10.5 2.01 57.0 1.49-25.9 1.23-17.4 1.13-8.1 JunQ 6.71 8.77 30.7 11.01 25.5 9.34-15.2 7.63-18.3 4.91-35.7 4.47-8.9 4.16-6.9 6.65 59.9 4.43-33.4 3.94-11.1 3.77-4.3 July 2.09 3.09 47.8 4.06 31.4 2.50-38.4 2.25-10.0 1.56-30.8 1.40-10.1 1.45 3.6 2.31 59.3 1.45-37.2 1.28-11.7 Aug ust 2.20 2.73 24.1 3.52 28.9 1.93-45.2 2.23 15.5 1.67-25.1 1.47-12.0 1.34-8.8 1.94 44.8 1.43-26.3 1.43 0.0 Se p te mb e r 2.12 2.39 12.7 4.40 84.1 1.87-57.5 2.61 39.3 1.61-38.4 1.45-9.7 1.29-11.0 2.19 69.8 1.36-37.9 1.36 0.0 Se p Q 6.41 8.21 28.1 11.98 45.9 6.30-47.4 7.08 12.4 4.83-31.8 4.32-10.6 4.08-5.6 6.44 57.8 4.24-34.2 4.07-4.0 Octo b e r 1.69 1.75 3.6 3.47 98.3 1.71-50.7 1.99 16.1 1.41-29.0 1.22-13.5 1.17-4.1 1.81 54.7 1.20-33.7 1.25 4.2 No ve mb e r 2.05 1.90-7.3 3.62 90.5 1.85-48.9 2.21 19.5 1.50-32.1 1.36-9.3 1.04-23.5 1.59 52.9 1.46-8.2 1.34-8.2 De ce mb e r 2.07 2.39 15.5 3.65 52.7 2.04-44.1 1.86-8.9 1.53-17.8 1.36-10.9 1.01-25.7 1.57 55.4 1.48-5.7 1.23-16.9 De cq 5.81 6.04 4.0 10.74 77.8 5.60-47.9 6.05 8.1 4.44-26.7 3.94-11.2 3.22-18.3 4.97 54.3 4.14-16.7 3.82-7.7 Full Ye a r 25.38 29.09 14.6% 43.05 48.0% 33.16-23.0% 27.13-18.2% 18.88-30.4% 17.11-9.4% 15.68-8.4% 22.22 41.7% 17.07-23.2% 16.22-5.0% Figure 12. Chinese Total Steel Exports, 2002-Current % % % 1998 1999 2000 ch. 2001 ch. 2002 ch. 2003 ch. 2004 ch. 2005 ch. 2006 ch. 2007 ch. 2008 ch. 2009 ch. 2010 ch. 2011 ch. 2012 ch. Ja nua ry 0.24 0.46 91.7% 0.51 10.9% 0.32-37.3% 0.58 81.3% 0.64 10.3% 2.05 220.2% 2.10 2.5% 4.94 135.3% 4.22-14.7% 1.91-54.7% 2.90 51.8% 3.12 7.6% 3.73 19.6% Fe b rua ry 0.28 0.60 114.3 0.66 10.0 0.36-45.5 0.56 55.6 0.51-8.9 2.33 357.6 2.15-7.7 4.92 128.4 3.11-36.8 1.56-49.8 2.49 59.6 2.48-0.4 3.39 36.7 Ma rch 0.34 1.07 214.7 0.64-40.2 0.50-21.9 0.84 68.0 0.75-10.7 3.67 389.2 3.12-15.1 6.05 94.0 4.17-31.0 1.67-60.0 3.33 99.4 4.91 47.4 5.03 2.4 Ma rq 0.86 2.13 147.7 1.81-15.0 1.18-34.8 1.98 67.8 1.90-4.0 8.05 323.8 7.37-8.5 15.91 115.8 11.50-27.7 5.14-55.3 8.72 69.6 10.51 20.5 12.15 15.6 Ap ril 0.39 0.96 146.2 0.71-26.0 0.53-25.4 0.89 67.9 1.03 15.7 2.87 178.6 3.18 10.9 8.02 152.1 4.79-40.3 1.41-70.6 4.31 205.7 4.77 10.7 4.67-2.1 Ma y 0.31 1.01 225.8 0.74-26.7 0.43-41.9 0.93 116.3 1.35 45.2 2.70 99.8 4.18 54.9 7.14 70.9 5.57-22.0 1.35-75.8 4.98 268.9 4.76-4.4 5.23 9.9 June 0.39 1.04 166.7 0.64-38.5 0.43-32.8 0.77 79.1 1.61 109.1 2.77 72.2 5.46 97.0 7.11 30.1 5.24-26.3 1.44-72.5 5.68 294.4 4.29-24.5 5.22 21.7 JunQ 1.09 3.01 176.1 2.09-30.6 1.39-33.5 2.59 86.3 3.99 54.1 8.34 109.0 12.82 53.8 22.27 73.7 15.60-30.0 4.20-73.1 14.97 256.4 13.82-7.7 15.12 9.4 July 0.41 0.90 119.5 0.57-36.7 0.56-1.1 0.67 0.0 1.03 53.7 2.18 111.8 4.41 102.1 6.84 55.2 7.44 8.8 1.81-75.7 4.55 151.4 4.44-2.4 Aug ust 0.50 0.86 72.0 0.60-30.2 0.85 41.7 0.58-31.8 1.87 222.4 1.71-8.3 4.98 190.6 5.72 14.8 8.24 44.1 2.08-74.8 2.82 35.6 4.19 48.6 Se p te mb e r 0.60 1.00 66.7 0.58-42.0 0.76 31.0 0.61-19.7 1.95 219.7 1.50-23.3 5.14 243.5 4.79-6.7 6.88 43.6 2.47-64.1 3.01 21.9 4.21 39.9 Se p Q 1.51 2.76 82.8 1.75-36.6 2.17 24.2 1.86-14.4 4.85 160.8 5.39 11.2 14.53 169.4 17.35 19.4 22.56 30.0 6.36-71.8 10.38 63.2 12.84 23.7 Octo b e r 0.50 0.95 90.0 0.65-31.6 0.70 7.7 0.57-18.6 2.20 286.0 1.50-31.7 5.18 244.7 4.42-14.7 4.73 7.0 2.71-42.7 2.87 5.9 3.82 33.1 No ve mb e r 0.61 0.90 47.5 0.52-42.2 0.57 9.6 0.66 15.8 2.91 340.9 1.95-33.0 6.11 213.2 4.27-30.1 2.98-30.2 2.87-3.7 2.91 1.4 4.20 44.3 De ce mb e r 0.59 0.84 0.79-6.0 0.63-20.3 0.78 23.8 0.75-3.8 3.71 394.7 2.35-36.5 6.05 156.9 4.91-18.8 3.19-35.0 3.35 5.0 2.85-14.9 3.72 30.5 De cq 1.95 2.64 35.4 1.80-31.8 2.05 13.9 1.98-3.4 8.82 345.5 5.81-34.1 17.34 198.5 13.60-21.6 10.90-19.9 8.93-18.1 8.63-3.4 11.74 36.0 Full Ye a r 0.59 5.41 10.54 94.8% 7.45-29.3% 6.79-8.8% 8.41 23.8% 19.56 132.6% 27.59 41.1% 52.05 88.6% 69.08 32.7% 60.52-12.4% 24.64-59.3% 42.70 73.3% 48.88 14.5% Steel Market Intelligence 5
Figure 13. Chinese Total Steel Net Exports, 2002-Current % 2001 2002 ch. 2003 ch. 2004 ch. 2005 ch. 2006 ch. 2007 ch. 2008 ch. 2009 ch. 2010 ch. 2011 ch. 2012 ch. Ja nua ry -1.33-1.61 21.1% -2.59 60.9% -3.06 18.1% 0.02-100.7% 0.51 2313.6% 3.44 574.4% 2.77-19.5% 0.91-67.1% 1.52 67.0% 1.40-7.9% 2.79 99.3% Fe b rua ry -1.42-1.11-21.8-2.04 83.8-3.41 67.2 0.59-117.4 0.87 46.0 3.67 323.8 1.84-49.9 0.16-91.3 1.30 712.5 1.42 9.2 2.13 50.0 Ma rch -1.89-2.17 14.8-2.71 24.9-3.48 28.4 1.07-130.9 1.28 19.0 4.45 248.0 2.64-40.6-0.06-102.3 1.62-2,800.0 3.31 104.3 3.72 12.4 Ma rq -4.64-4.89 5.4-7.34 50.1-9.95 35.6 1.69-117.0 2.65 57.2 11.56 335.5 7.25-37.3 1.01-86.1 4.44 339.6 6.13 38.1 8.64 40.9 Ap ril -1.63-2.47 51.5-2.72 10.1-3.09 13.6 0.18-105.9 1.47 714.7 6.37 332.0 3.27-48.7-0.88-126.9 2.75-412.5 3.37 22.5 3.38 0.3 Ma y -1.25-2.33 86.4-2.60 11.6-1.12-56.9 0.41-136.2 2.69 561.4 5.75 114.1 4.21-26.8-1.00-123.8 3.60-460.0 3.45-4.2 3.88 12.5 June -1.74-2.58 48.3-3.10 20.2-1.14-63.2 0.12-110.8 3.76 2,948.5 5.68 51.2 3.96-30.3-0.57-114.4 4.19-835.1 3.06-27.0 4.09 33.7 JunQ -4.62-7.38 59.7-8.42 14.1-5.35-36.5 0.71-113.3 7.92 1,014.7 17.80 124.9 11.44-35.7-2.45-121.4 10.54-530.2 9.88-6.3 11.35 14.9 July -1.52-2.53 66.2-3.39 34.2-1.47-56.6-0.07-95.4 2.85-4,313.1 5.44 90.8 5.99 10.1-0.50-108.3 3.10-720.0 3.16 1.9 Aug ust -1.60-1.88 17.5-2.94 56.4-0.06-98.0-0.52 759.0 3.31-742.1 4.25 28.4 6.90 62.4 0.14-98.0 1.39 892.9 2.76 98.6 Se p te mb e r -1.54-1.63 5.8-3.79 132.5 0.08-102.1-1.11-1,487.2 3.53-418.2 3.34-5.4 5.59 67.4 0.28-95.0 1.65 489.3 2.85 72.7 Se p Q -4.66-6.04 29.5-10.12 67.7-1.45-85.7-1.69 16.7 9.69-672.6 13.03 34.4 18.48 41.8-0.08-100.4 6.14-7,775.0 8.77 42.8 Octo b e r -1.04-1.05 1.0-2.90 176.2 0.49-116.9-0.48-198.4 3.77-881.8 3.20-15.1 3.56 11.3 0.90-74.7 1.67 85.6 2.57 53.9 No ve mb e r -1.53-1.33-13.1-2.96 122.6 1.06-135.8-0.26-124.5 4.61-1,877.7 2.91-36.9 1.94-33.3 1.28-34.0 1.45 13.3 2.86 97.2 De ce mb e r -1.44-1.61 11.8-2.90 80.1 1.67-157.6 0.50-70.3 4.52 810.4 3.55-21.5 2.18-38.6 1.78-18.3 1.37-23.0 2.49 81.8 De cq -4.01-3.99-0.5-8.76 119.5 3.22-136.8-0.24-107.6 12.90-5,372.3 9.66-25.1 7.68-20.5 3.96-48.4 4.49 13.4 7.92 76.4 Full Ye a r -17.93-22.30 24.4% -34.64 55.4% -13.60-60.7% 0.46-103.4% 33.17 7098.1% 51.97 56.7% 44.84-13.7% 2.42-94.6% 25.63 959.1% 32.66 27.4% Figure 14. Chinese Apparent Steel Consumption, 2002-Current Ja nua ry 15.29 18.21 19.1% 23.24 27.6% 25.85 11.2% 29.72 15.0% 34.90 17.4% 37.79 8.3% 40.61 7.5% 50.32 23.9% 54.65 8.6% 53.94-1.3% Fe b rua ry 14.20 17.57 23.8 23.87 35.8 24.58 3.0 29.21 18.8 32.67 11.8 37.04 13.4 40.36 9.0 48.22 19.5 52.68 9.2 53.75 2.0 Ma rch 16.74 19.73 17.9 25.67 30.1 26.31 2.5 32.09 21.9 35.81 11.6 42.23 17.9 45.16 6.9 52.90 17.1 56.11 6.1 57.86 3.1 Ma rq 46.23 55.52 20.1 72.79 31.1 76.74 5.4 91.02 18.6 103.37 13.6 117.07 13.2 126.13 7.7 151.44 20.1 163.43 7.9 165.56 1.3 Ap ril 16.79 20.06 19.5 25.49 27.0 28.14 10.4 33.13 17.7 34.18 3.2 41.41 21.1 44.29 7.0 52.65 18.9 55.66 5.7 57.19 2.7 Ma y 17.45 21.05 20.6 22.74 8.0 29.63 30.3 33.02 11.4 35.87 8.6 41.80 16.5 47.46 13.5 52.54 10.7 56.80 8.1 57.35 1.0 June 17.44 21.52 23.4 22.60 5.1 30.77 36.1 32.98 7.2 36.93 12.0 42.98 16.4 50.00 16.3 49.58-0.8 56.87 14.7 JunQ 51.68 62.63 21.2 70.83 13.1 88.54 25.0 99.13 12.0 106.98 7.9 126.19 18.0 141.75 12.3 154.77 9.2 169.33 9.4 July 17.72 21.76 22.8 24.20 11.2 29.61 22.3 33.18 12.1 36.30 9.4 38.90 7.2 51.18 31.6 48.64-4.9 56.14 15.4 Aug ust 17.27 21.89 26.7 24.08 10.0 31.89 32.4 33.30 4.4 37.33 12.1 35.67-4.5 52.19 46.3 50.25-3.7 55.99 11.4 Se p te mb e r 16.85 22.96 36.3 24.74 7.7 31.63 27.8 32.63 3.2 39.37 20.7 34.01-13.6 50.43 48.3 46.30-8.2 53.85 16.3 Se p Q 51.84 66.61 28.5 73.02 9.6 93.12 27.5 99.11 6.4 113.00 14.0 108.58-3.9 153.79 41.6 145.18-5.6 165.98 14.3 Octo b e r 16.71 22.72 35.9 26.15 15.1 32.43 24.0 33.91 4.6 39.72 17.1 32.34-18.6 50.85 57.2 48.63-4.4 52.10 7.1 No ve mb e r 17.30 23.45 35.6 23.98 2.2 30.85 28.7 33.44 8.4 36.78 10.0 33.25-9.6 45.98 38.3 48.72 6.0 47.02-3.5 De ce mb e r 18.24 23.06 26.4 24.86 7.8 31.54 26.9 33.56 6.4 37.76 12.5 35.61-5.7 45.88 28.8 50.15 9.3 49.67-1.0 De cq 52.25 69.23 32.5 74.99 8.3 94.82 26.4 100.92 6.4 114.27 13.2 101.20-11.4 142.71 41.0 147.51 3.4 148.80 0.9 Full Ye a r 202.01 255.84 26.6% 294.09 14.9% 352.99 20.0% 389.49 10.3% 437.27 12.3% 455.66 4.2% 565.42 24.1% 601.02 6.3% 650.61 8.3% Steel Market Intelligence 6
Figure 15. Chinese Average Daily Apparent Steel Consumption, 2002-Current Ja nua ry 0.49 0.59 19.1% 0.75 27.6% 0.83 11.2% 0.96 15.0% 1.13 17.4% 1.22 8.3% 1.31 7.5% 1.62 23.9% 1.76 8.6% 1.74-1.3% Fe b rua ry 0.51 0.63 23.8 0.82 31.2 0.88 6.7 1.04 18.8 1.17 11.8 1.28 9.5 1.44 12.8 1.72 19.5 1.88 9.2 1.85-1.5 Ma rch 0.54 0.64 17.9 0.83 30.1 0.85 2.5 1.04 21.9 1.16 11.6 1.36 17.9 1.46 6.9 1.71 17.1 1.81 6.1 1.87 3.1 Ma rq 0.51 0.62 20.2 0.80 29.7 0.85 6.6 1.01 18.6 1.15 13.5 1.29 11.9 1.40 9.1 1.68 20.0 1.82 8.0 1.82 0.1 Ap ril 0.56 0.67 19.5 0.85 27.0 0.94 10.4 1.10 17.7 1.14 3.2 1.38 21.1 1.48 7.0 1.76 18.9 1.86 5.7 1.91 2.7 Ma y 0.56 0.68 20.6 0.73 8.0 0.96 30.3 1.07 11.4 1.16 8.6 1.35 16.5 1.53 13.5 1.69 10.7 1.83 8.1 1.85 1.0 June 0.58 0.72 23.4 0.75 5.1 1.03 36.1 1.10 7.2 1.23 12.0 1.43 16.4 1.67 16.3 1.65-0.8 1.90 14.7 JunQ 0.57 0.69 21.2 0.78 13.2 0.97 24.9 1.09 12.0 1.18 7.9 1.39 18.0 1.56 12.3 1.70 9.2 1.86 9.4 July 0.57 0.70 22.8 0.78 11.2 0.96 22.3 1.07 12.1 1.17 9.4 1.25 7.2 1.65 31.6 1.57-4.9 1.81 15.4 Aug ust 0.56 0.71 26.7 0.78 10.0 1.03 32.4 1.07 4.4 1.20 12.1 1.15-4.5 1.68 46.3 1.62-3.7 1.81 11.4 Se p te mb e r 0.56 0.77 36.3 0.82 7.7 1.05 27.8 1.09 3.2 1.31 20.7 1.13-13.6 1.68 48.3 1.54-8.2 1.80 16.3 Se p Q 0.56 0.72 28.6 0.79 9.6 1.01 27.5 1.08 6.4 1.23 14.1 1.18-4.0 1.67 41.7 1.58-5.6 1.80 14.3 Octo b e r 0.54 0.73 35.9 0.84 15.1 1.05 24.0 1.09 4.6 1.28 17.1 1.04-18.6 1.64 57.2 1.57-4.4 1.68 7.1 No ve mb e r 0.58 0.78 35.6 0.80 2.2 1.03 28.7 1.11 8.4 1.23 10.0 1.11-9.6 1.53 38.3 1.62 6.0 1.57-3.5 De ce mb e r 0.59 0.74 26.4 0.80 7.8 1.02 26.9 1.08 6.4 1.22 12.5 1.15-5.7 1.48 28.8 1.62 9.3 1.60-1.0 De cq 0.57 0.75 32.5 0.81 8.3 1.03 26.5 1.10 6.4 1.24 13.2 1.10-11.4 1.55 41.0 1.60 3.4 1.62 0.8 Full Ye a r 0.55 0.70 25.7% 0.80 14.6% 0.97 21.4% 1.07 10.5% 1.20 12.2% 1.24 3.3% 1.55 24.8% 1.64 6.2% 1.77 8.1% Figure 16. Chinese Steel Production, 2002-Current Ja nua ry 13.7 15.6 14.2% 20.2 29.2% 25.9 28.2% 30.2 16.9% 38.3 26.8% 40.6 5.8% 41.5 2.4% 51.8 24.9% 56.1 8.1% 56.7 1.2% Fe b rua ry 13.1 15.5 18.7 20.5 31.7 25.2 23.0 30.1 19.5 36.3 20.8 38.9 7.0 40.5 4.2 49.5 22.2 54.1 9.2 55.9 3.3 Ma rch 14.6 17.0 16.8 22.2 30.4 27.4 23.4 33.4 21.8 40.3 20.6 44.9 11.5 45.1 0.5 54.5 20.9 59.4 9.0 61.6 3.6 Ma rq 41.3 48.2 16.5 62.8 30.4 78.4 24.8 93.7 19.4 114.9 22.7 124.3 8.2 127.1 2.3 155.9 22.6 169.6 8.8 174.2 2.7 Ap ril 14.3 17.3 21.1 22.4 29.1 28.3 26.4 34.6 22.2 40.6 17.2 44.7 10.2 43.4-2.8 55.4 27.6 59.0 6.6 60.6 2.6 Ma y 15.1 18.4 22.0 21.6 17.2 30.0 38.9 35.7 18.9 41.6 16.6 46.0 10.5 46.5 1.0 56.1 20.8 60.2 7.3 61.2 1.6 June 14.9 18.4 23.9 21.5 16.5 30.9 43.9 36.7 18.9 42.6 16.0 46.9 10.2 49.4 5.3 53.8 8.8 59.9 11.5 JunQ 44.3 54.2 22.4 65.5 20.8 89.3 36.3 107.0 19.9 124.8 16.6 137.6 10.3 139.3 1.2 165.3 18.7 179.2 8.4 July 15.2 18.4 20.9 22.7 23.8 29.5 29.9 36.0 22.0 41.7 15.8 44.9 7.5 50.7 12.9 51.7 2.1 59.3 14.6 Aug ust 15.4 18.9 23.1 24.0 26.8 31.4 30.6 36.6 16.7 41.6 13.6 42.6 2.4 52.3 22.9 51.6-1.3 58.8 13.8 Se p te mb e r 15.2 19.2 26.0 24.8 29.4 30.5 23.0 36.2 18.5 42.7 18.1 39.6-7.3 50.7 28.1 47.9-5.5 56.7 18.3 Se p Q 45.8 56.5 23.3 71.6 26.7 91.4 27.7 108.8 19.0 126.0 15.8 127.1 0.8 153.7 21.0 151.3-1.6 174.8 15.5 Octo b e r 15.7 19.8 26.5 26.6 34.4 31.9 19.9 37.7 18.0 42.9 13.9 35.9-16.4 51.7 44.1 50.3-2.8 54.7 8.7 No ve mb e r 16.0 20.5 28.3 25.0 22.2 30.6 22.2 38.1 24.4 39.7 4.3 35.2-11.3 47.3 34.3 50.2 6.2 49.9-0.6 De ce mb e r 16.6 20.2 21.2 26.5 31.6 32.0 20.8 38.1 18.8 41.3 8.5 37.8-8.5 47.7 26.1 51.5 8.1 52.2 1.2 De cq 48.3 60.5 25.3 78.2 29.3 94.6 20.9 113.8 20.3 123.9 8.9 108.9-12.1 146.7 34.7 152.0 3.6 156.7 3.1 Full Ye a r 179.7 221.2 23.1 280.5 26.8 353.4 26.0 422.7 19.6 489.2 15.8 500.5 2.3 567.8 13.5 626.7 10.4 683.3 9.0 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, World Steel Association and Steel Market Intelligence Steel Market Intelligence 7
DISCLAIMER: The material contained in this report or message is available only by subscription and further distribution is prohibited. No person or entity other than the subscriber shall rely on the information contained in this report or message. The information contained in this message or report was prepared by Michelle Applebaum Research Inc (MARI) and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, MARI makes no representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. Prices and availability of securities are subject to change without notice. MARI does not undertake and has no duty to advise you as to any information that comes to its attention after the date of this message or report or subsequent changes in its view. The information in this message or report is intended as impersonal advisory services and is not intended to meet the objectives or needs of specific investors. MARI, its affiliates, and any officer, director or stockholder, or any member of their families, may have a position in and may from time to time purchase or sell one or more of the securities, if any, mentioned or any related securities. MARI may from time to time and at any time perform services for, or solicit engagements from, companies, if any, mentioned in this message or report. MARI is not a registered broker-dealer. This is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: For other information, if any, distributed by MARI relating to a company mentioned in this message or report, please request our most recent communications relating to the subject company directly from MARI. Such information is available only by subscription. DESCRIPTION: MARI is a consultancy and third-party research provider established in 2003 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, USA. The company provides research, consulting and advisory services to companies involved in various aspects of the steel industry and professional money managers. Steel Market Intelligence 8