Corland Publishing FROM GASOLINE TO GAS John McCormick Executive Editor, Hydrogen Forecast www.hydrogenforecast.com All contents copyright Corland Publishing Contact: 734 604 4768 or email: john.mccormick@hydrogenforecast.com
www.hydrogen forecast.com THE NEXT TRANSITION
Why not hydrogen? Cost of producing hydrogen Cost of establishing H2 infrastructure Fuel economy improvements from more ICE powertrains and gasoline/electric hybrids
The true cost of gasoline US, Europe and Japan hostage to whims of unstable/terrorist supporting nations US trade deficit, a record $726 billion in 2005 29 percent related to petroleum. Wars in Iraq to protect regional oil supplies $440 billion and counting. Part of 2007 Defense Department $439 billion budget request helps protect Japanese access and European access to oil in the Persian Gulf.
Infrastructure
H2 fuel station in Washington DC
Kicking our oil addiction Why ICE fuel economy improvements are not enough, even with hybrids, over long term
10% market penetration by vehicles with 50% fuel economy improvement by 2025 = 2% Fuel Reduction (2002-2025) 200 Fuel reduced by highefficiency vehicles (Billion gallons per year) 175 150 125 100 75 50 Fuel consumed by highefficiency vehicles 2002 Level of Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption 2025 = 2002 x 1.57 25 0 2002 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2025 Source: US DoE
50% market penetration by vehicles with 50% Fuel Economy Improvement by 2025 = 9% Fuel Reduction (2002-2025) Billion gallons per year 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 Fuel consumed by highefficiency vehicles Fuel reduced by highefficiency vehicles 2002 Level of Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption 2025 = 2002 x 1.35 25 0 2002 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2025 Source: US DoE
Entire vehicle fleet with 62% fuel economy improvement by 2025 = 21% Fuel Reduction (2002-2025) 200 Billion gallons per year 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Fuel reduced by highefficiency vehicles 2002 Level of Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption 2025 = 2002 Fuel consumed by highefficiency vehicles 0 2002 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2025 Source: US DoE
Sources of hydrogen Multiple pathways: Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass One of best ways to generate hydrogen is through electrolysis using a nuclear plant
Nuclear option Western Europe Nuclear power is merging as option again. France already has 70 percent nuclear energy Britain and West Germany are reconsidering plans to phase out nuclear plants. Asia China, desperately short of energy, lacks oil resources, plans major nuclear plant program.
Developing the H2 FCV Many challenges but dramatic progress in recent years Obstacles: On-board storage Component cost Durability
6000 mile durability test
Driving the future
At the pump
The storage challenge Hydrogen Gas 55 000 Liters 1 atm, ambient temp 5 kg Gasoline 55 Liters 1000
VOLUMETRIC ENERGY DENSITY X 4 CH 2 LH 2 250 350 700 Methanol Gasoline (RFG) Diesel (RFD) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 MJ / l Energy / Volume
GRAVIMETRIC ENERGY DENSITY MJ / kg 140 120 Hydrogen Energy / mass 100 80 60 X 3 40 20 Gasoline / Diesel* Methanol 0 * 44.5 / 45
HYDROGEN STORAGE OPTIONS PHYSICAL STORAGE Molecular CHEMICAL STORAGE Dissociated REVERSIBLE REVERSIBLE NON-REVERSIBLE REFORMED FUEL LIQUID HYDROGEN CRYO- ADSORPTION COMPRESSED GAS HYDROLYZED FUEL DECOMPOSED FUEL NANO STRUCTURE ADSORPTION CONVENTIONAL METAL HYDRIDES COMPLEX METAL HYDRIDES LIGHT ELEMENT SYSTEMS DESTABILIZED LIGHT ELEMENT SYSTEMS Carbon Metal Organic Frameworks La Ni 5 Ti Fe LiAlH 4 NaAlH 4 KAlH 4 MgH 2 Mg Alloys LiH+ Si MgH 2 + Si MgH 2 + Al Mg(AlH 4 ) 2
PROGRESS ON SOLID-STATE RE-FUELABLE ON-BOARD Future Materials Hydrogen Storage Density (MJ/kg) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Traditional Metal Hydrides Mg 2 NiH 4 H FeTiH 1.7 LaNi 5 6.5 Advanced Borohydrides Catalyzed Alanates LiNH + LiH Carbon Nanotubes @RT 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 NaBH 4 + X Modified B-N-H
GM FCV progress
Mercedes B-Class FCV
Mercedes F600 FCV at Tokyo show
Honda FCX at Tokyo show
Honda FCX
Honda FCX chassis
Ford fuel cell assembly
Ford FCV stack assembly insertion
Ford FCV stack assembly insertion
Compressed H2 Tank
GM Sequel FCV in Shanghai
GM Sequel skateboard chassis
GM skateboard concept chassis
Toyota Fine N FCV
Toyota Fine N FCV chassis
Toyota Fine-T FCV concept in Tokyo
Toyota Fine T FCV concept
Toyota Fine T concept
Long term benefit
Questions for Steel industry Design of vehicle of the future is open Vehicle architecture will an FCV use existing architecture, modified architecture or clean sheet, skateboard design? Will an FCV need high cost materials like aluminum and magnesium to lower vehicle weight or can steel meet the challenge?