Tanker Market Outlook 4 th Maritime Indonesia Simon Chattrabhuti, Director, Head of Tanker Market Analysis Jakarta, 22 March 212
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jan- jan-1 jan-2 jan-3 jan-4 jan-5 jan-6 jan-7 jan-8 jan-9 jan-1 jan-11 jan-12 jan- jan-1 jan-2 jan-3 jan-4 jan-5 jan-6 jan-7 jan-8 jan-9 jan-1 jan-11 jan-12 jan- jan-1 jan-2 jan-3 jan-4 jan-5 jan-6 jan-7 jan-8 jan-9 jan-1 jan-11 jan-12 $/day VLCC Tanker Spot & TC Earnings Aframax MR 1yr TC 3yr TC TCE 1yr TC 3yr TC TCE 1yr TC 3yr TC TCE 25 9 45 8 4 2 7 35 15 6 5 3 25 1 4 3 2 15 5 2 1 1 5 Data Source: Clarksons 22 March 212
1995 1997 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Now 1995 1997 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Now Million dwt Million dwt Crude & Product Tanker Fleet Development Crude Tanker* Product Tanker 35 VLCC Suemax Aframax 12 LR2 Panamax/LR1 MR Handy 3 48% 1 86% 25 2 15 8% 8 6 16% 1 4 5 2 * Aframax excludes coated vessels (LR2) Data source: Clarksons 22 March 212
1975-198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 1975-1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 No of vessels Tanker Fleet Age Profile 18 16 14 12 1 Aframax Suezmax VLCC Crude Tanker 25 2 15 Handy 25-39 MR 4-54 Panamax/LR1 55-84 LR2 85-124 Product Tanker 8 1 6 4 5 2 Note: Aframax excludes vessels with coated tanks Data source: Clarksons 22 March 212
199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 billion tonnes million tonnes Growing Seaborne Oil Trade Seaborne Trade 2-211 Growth 3. Crude Oil Products 5 Volume Increase 94% % Growth 1% 2.5 4 82% 8% 2. 1.5 3 6% 6% 1..5 2 1 241 15% 314 133 417 4% 2%. Crude Oil Products Liq Gas Coal % Data Source: Clarksons 22 March 212
Per capita oil cons (litre) Million ppl Oil Consumption per Capita 4. 3.5 per capita oil cons World oil cons per capita OECD oil cons per capita population 3.851 3.582 1.6 1.4 3. 2.5 OECD=5.4 x China OECD=13.5 x India 2.67 1.2 1. 2. 1.5 1. World Av=1.8 x China World Av=4.6 x India 753 1.14 1.514 2.14 8 6 4 5 159 324 4 2 India Indonesia China Brazil Mexico OECD Europe Japan S.Korea Canada USA Data source: EIA/US Census Bureau 22 March 212
19 19 19 19 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Billion people Million people Growing World Population Impact on Energy, Food & Transportation 9 8 7 6 OECD CHINA INDIA OTHER ASIA AFRICA R.O.W 1.3 billion Population Dynamics 212-22 Population % Growth 25 2% 19% 18% 2 16% 14% 5 15 12% 4 3 1 8% 7% 1% 1% 8% 6% 2 1 5 3% 4% 2% % Data source: US Census Bureau 22 March 212
Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Million bpd Global Oil Demand / Supply Balances 93 92 91 Demand Supply* 9 89 88 87 86 85 84 Data source: IEA. *Supply for 212 based on IEA reports of non-opec supply, OPEC NGLs and latest reported level of OPEC crude supply 22 March 212
Oil Demand Growth in 212 North America Europe FSU China India Japan Other Asia and Oceania Latin America Middle East Africa Thousand barrels per day Updated to March 212 Data source: EIA -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 22 March 212
Million bpd Thousand bpd U.S. Refinery Developments 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 US Refinery Throughput by Region 2,7 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,5,5,5,5,5,5 7,5 7, 7,2 7,6 7,5 3,3 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,4 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,1 1,1 27 28 29 21 211 PADD 5 (West Coast) PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) PADD 2 (Midwest) PADD 1 (East Coast) 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 U.S. Refinery Expansions & Closures Expansion (US Gulf and inland) Planned Further Closure (East Coast) Closure (East Coast)* 211 212 213 Data source: EIA/Clarksons. *Includes U.S. Virgin Is. 22 March 212
mbpd kbpd European Refinery Capacity Developments 16 EU Refinery Capacity, Throughput and Oil Demand Capacity Throughput Demand -1 European Refinery Closures 15-2 -3 14-4 13-5 -6 Temporary at Present Permanent 12 25 26 27 28 29 21-7 29 21 211 212 Data source: BP Stats/Clarksons 22 March 212
25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Sulphur Content of Bunker Fuel (%) MARPOL Annex VI Reduction in SOx Emissions in ECAs 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1, 1/7/1 1/1/15 Data source: IMO 22 March 212
199 1992 1994 2 22 24 26 28 21 199 1992 1994 2 22 24 26 28 21 199 1992 1994 2 22 24 26 28 21 mbpd mbpd mbpd Refinery Throughputs and Changes in Demand China India Middle East 1 9 Refinery Throughputs Demand -.5mbpd 4,5 4, Refinery Throughputs Demand.6mbpd 9 8 Refinery Throughputs Demand -1.3mbpd 8 7 6 5 4 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 7 6 5 4 3 1,5 3 2 1, 2 1,5 1, *refinery capacity rather than refinery throughput Data source: BP Stats 22 March 212
199 1992 1994 2 22 24 26 28 21 199 1992 1994 2 22 24 26 28 21 19 19 19 19 19 2 2 2 2 2 2 mbpd mbpd mbpd Refinery Throughputs and Changes in Demand Latin America Indonesia Africa 7 6 Refinery Throughputs Demand -1.5mbpd 1,4 1,2 Refinery Capacity* Demand -.15mbpd 3,5 3, Refinery Throughputs Demand -.8mbpd 5 1, 2,5 4,8 2, 3,6 1,5 2,4 1, 1,2,5,, Data source: BP Stats *refinery capacity rather than refinery throughput 22 March 212
Million bpd Key Refinery Capacity Expansion Projects 212-214 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Russia Brazil U.S. Pakistan Bahrain U.A.E. Saudi Arabia India China,5, 212 213 214 Data source: Clarksons. Based on currently known projects and completion dates. Countries with expansion projects totalling 1, bpd by 214 are shown. 22 March 212
Thank You 22 March 212