1 Yoichi Iida Chief Representative NEDO Europe 15 June, 2010
Global Automobile Market (10,000) 8,000 67.96 million (2008) 7,000 6,000 5,000 Emerging markets 31 million Emerging markets Appearance of super-lowpriced cars 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Japan Europe North America 1930 1960 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 (Year) 5.08 million 15.60 million 16.20 million Developed country markets Stronger focus on fuel efficiency Possibility of different power trains for each market 2
3 International Energy Market and Global Warming 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (Unit: dollar/barrel) アラビアンライト価格 Arabian Light 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 (year) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Forecast of World CO 2 emissions (Carbon conversion 1 billion tons) Future CO 2 emission forecasts 開発途上国 Developing countries Developed 先進国 countries 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (Year) [Source] Kainuma, et al., 2002: Climate Policy Assessment, Springer, p. 64
4 Next Generation Vehicles Electric Automobiles Fuji Heavy Industries Stella Nissan LEAF Plug-in Hybrid Autos Toyota plug-in hybrid automobile Hybrid Vehicles Toyota Prius Honda Insight Mitsubishi I MiEV Fuel Cell Powered Autos Hydrogen-fueled Auto Clean Diesel Passenger Car CNG (natural gas) Auto Toyota FCHV Mazda RX-8 Nissan X-Trail Isuzu Elf
Automobile Technology Roadmap Fiscal year Hybrid vehicles New-model HVs Batteries Electric vehicles Commuter EVs High-performance EVs Plug-in HVs Plug-in HVs High-performance plug-in HVs Fuel-cell vehicles Highperformance lithium-ion batteries Fuel-cell vehicles Next-generation fuel-cell vehicles Bio fuel Bio gasoline Hydrogenated Bio Diesel Cellulosic bio fuel Clean diesel vehicles Clean diesel vehicles ITS ETC VICS Automated driving/platoon driving 11 5
6 Strategic Plans for Next Generation Vehicle Overall Battery Natural Resources(Rare Metals) Infrastructure System Integration International Standards
7 Diffusion projections and Targets Diffusion targets (government targets) Diffusion projections (with private-sector efforts)
8 Issues to be considered for accelerating next generation vehicle diffusion Expected model changes Only 1-2 changes expected by 2020 Secure international competitiveness Continued dominance of conventional vehicles in international, especially emerging, markets. Risk for auto makers High risk involved in focusing on specific technologies, due to variations in diffusion projections Higher costs arising from the use of advanced technologies Even if green vehicles are available, whether to buy them depends on users. Effects of eco-friendlyvehicles subsidies and tax breaks Apr. 2009: Eco-vehicles account for 42.5% (next-generation vehicles 5.7%) Feb. 2010: Eco-vehicles account for 73.1% (next-generation vehicles 9.3%)
Battery Technology Roadmap 9
10 Resource Strategy Roadmap Recycle lithium-ion batteries and REE(rare earth element) Use lithium and REE efficiently Develop batteries and motors free of lithium and REE
11 Infrastructure Development Roadmap 2 million normal chargers installed until 2020 5,000 of quick chargers installed until 2010.
12 International Standardization Roadmap Standardization of charger ~CHAdeMO Protocol
FCV Commercialization Scenario 13
Establishment of Japan Smart Community Alliance Established on April 6 th, 2010 Objective: promote public-private cooperative activities toward realization of a smart community Secretariat: NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) Member companies: 287 (As of April 6 th, 2010) Board: Toshiba, Itochu, Tokyo Gas, TEPCO, Toyota, JGS, Panasonic, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric Industries: Power, Gas, Oil, Telecom, Internet, IT, Electronics, Machinery, Automobile, Battery, House, Developer, Chemical, Media, Finance, Trading, Consulting, University, Industry Org., etc. Working groups (To be established) Global Strategy WG International Standardization WG Roadmap WG Smart House WG Japan Smart Community Alliance Power and gas utilities Manufacturers Developers Universities 14