Global Overview of Middle Distillates Supply and Demand ICE Market Forum Rotterdam, November 2012
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1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 World Oil Demand Y-O-Y Growth myn b/d (source: IEA) 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5
World Oil Demand 1.8 IEA estimate of 2012 Demand Growth (myn b/d) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 World Oil Demand IEA, mbpd 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 OECD NON-OECD
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 World Oil Non-OECD Demand IEA, mbpd 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 East of Suez West of Suez
2012 Demand Growth by Products mbpd 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 Resid Naphtha Others Jet Gasoline Distillates -200
Share of Diesel demand Source: OPEC 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Pacific Latam Mideast Others Other Asia China Nth Am Europe
West of Suez
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Europe Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000
Europe Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Diesel Gasoil
Europe Driving Fuels Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000
Europe Driving fuel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Diesel Gasoline
Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45%
Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% France Germany Spain Switzerland
70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels vs Distillates refinery yields (IEA) Diesel share of driving fuel Distillates yield
Europe Refinery runs (IEA, mbpd) 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000
Europe Diesel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 1,700 Diesel dmd in SPA/POR/ITA/TKY mbpd 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 2011 2012
Europe Diesel Demand % (source: IEA) 15% Diesel dmd in SPA/POR/ITA/TKY % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
Europe Diesel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 Diesel dmd in FRA/GER/UK/NL mbpd 1,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 2011 2012
Europe Diesel Demand % (source: IEA) 15% Diesel dmd in FRA/GER/UK/NL % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
Demand vs prev year Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Germany -2.4% 3.8% -8.1% -2.0% France -0.6% 5.6% -5.7% -1.3% -11.9% -5.0% UK -5.6% 0.2% -3.8% 7.0% Italy -6.7% -5.5% -10.1% -9.7% -18.2% -15.6% Spain -8.5% -6.7% -6.0% -5.7% -14.0% -13.5%
30 Unemployment % by EU country 25 20 15 10 5 0 NL DE SE UK PL IT FR PT GR ES
Europe net Distillates imports (IEA, mbpd) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12-200 Med NWE
Spain net Distillates imports
Europe net Distillates imports (IEA,k MT) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 FSU US Asia
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000
US Distillates Demand mbpd(source: IEA) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Diesel Other Gasoil
Nth Atlantic Basin Distillates Demand mb/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 USA Diesel Europe Diesel USA Gasoil Europe Gasoil
US & EUR % Diesel of Driving Fuels 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Europe USA
US & Europe Refinery runs (IEA,mbpd) 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 Europe USA
US Distillates S&D (mbpd) 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 Supply Demand
US Products exports (DOE,mbpd) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Distillates Gasoline
US Distillates exports (DOE,mbpd) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Europe Latin America
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Floating Storage Distillates 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Distillate Floating Storage US onshore Distillate Stocks March 2008
US Midwest refinery economics
US, cheapest crude at market price
Latam Distillates demand (JODI, mbpd) Arg/Braz/Chi/Ecua/Mex/Per/Venz) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200
Latam Distillates demand & imports (JODI,mbpd) Arg/Braz/Chi/Ecua/Mex/Per/Venz) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Demand (LH) Imports (RH)
East of Suez
Asia Distillates demand (JODI,mbpd) (China/India/Jap/Skor/Thai) 7,200 6,700 6,200 5,700 5,200 4,700 4,200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
China Internal Retail Prices Yuan/MT 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 Gasoline Diesel 5,500 5,000
China Passenger Car Sales
250 Imports of Distillates (JODI, IEA, 000 b/d) 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 China Switzerland
China refinery runs (mbpd) 10,200 9,700 9,200 8,700 8,200 7,700 7,200 6,700 6,200 5,700 5,200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
China refinery runs vs year ago (mbpd) 800 China crude oil refinery runs vs previous year (mbpd) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12-100
Refinery runs (mbpd) 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Europe China+India
600 Exports of Distillates (JODI, mbpd) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 China India
Saudi Arabia Distillates demand ( JODI,mbpd) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Demand Imports
Large Refinery expansion in Middle East next two years (mbpd) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Saudi Jubail End 2012 UAE Ruwais end 2013 Saudi Yanbu end 2014
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