Indonesia Daily Focus Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,444.6-1.3 3.6 17.9 MSCI EM 959.2-1.2 0.5 1.7 HANG SENG 24,123.1-0.2-1.5 8.5 KOSPI 2,012.9-1.0 4.0 3.0 FTSE 6,876.5-0.5 1.2 3.3 DJIA 17,995.7 0.8-0.1 8.8 NASDAQ 4,942.4 0.3 2.9 13.7 Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 16.0 2.7 19.8 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate 7.50 0-25 -25 3yr 6.99 4 9-49 10yr 7.60 11 40-43 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13,051.00 0.6 2.6 14.1 USD/KRW 1,098.81-0.2 0.4 3.0 USD/JPY 121.15 0.3 1.4 17.3 USD/CNY 6.26 0.0 0.3 2.0 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 50.0 0.8-1.8-45.0 Gold 1,167.2 0.0-5.4-12.9 Coal 61.8-1.0-0.6-25.4 Palm Oil 665.0 1.8 0.0-29.5 Rubber 131.0 0.0 2.1-16.9 Nickel 14,370.0 1.2-5.2-6.0 Copper 5,745.0-1.5 1.3-15.3 Tin 18,200.0 0.6-2.2-20.9 JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 Tax issue is a speed bump for investors Following the approval of 2015 revised state budget, the government has been targeting a significant increase in tax revenue to reach a reduced budget deficit of 1.9% of GDP for the year. Revenues are expected to rise by IDR300tr or 26.3% increase from 2014 in order to enhance spending on infrastructure. Recently, the government has already started to take actions. 1. 10% imposed as Value Added Tax (PPn) on toll tariffs The government plans to impose 10% VAT on toll tariffs which will take effect on April 2015. However due to several issues, the Ministry of Finance might reschedule the implementation date. Our general belief is that this won t place much negative impact on toll road operators such as JSMR (Jasa Marga). For more details check out our Daily Focus dated Feb 27 Impact of VAT on toll tariff. 2. Revised luxury goods sales tax (PPnBM) The government plans to lower the price limit of items to be categorized as luxury items which will be subject to the PPnBM or luxury goods sales tax. One of the subjects of the luxury tax is property. Originally, 5% luxury tax is expected to be imposed with property with value of IDR10bn and is pending for revision which is expected to be reduced to IDR2bn. The impact will be felt by the market on April 2015. We expect the property demand will be hurt and sales will be potentially squeezed, especially for developers. As to other industry such as banks, fewer people will borrow money for property purchase, thus loan growth will slow down. Having said that, we suggest investors to look on builders (PTPP, WSKT) rather than developers (LPKR, ASRI) within the property sector. 3. 8.4%-10% VAT subjected to cigarette In addition to luxury items and toll roads, Directorate General of Taxation also plans to implement 8.4%-10% VAT on cigarette this upcoming April. We expect this regulation will lead to retail cigarette price hike and may hamper sales volume on small cig companies i.e. WIIM (Wismilak Inti Makmur). However, for the big cigarette manufacturers such as GGRM (Gudang Garam) or HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna), we believe these companies will be able to pass on their cost pressure with minor impact on volume given its strong brand position in the market. We believe these efforts by the government are taken into consideration to improve the nation s economic growth by using higher tax revenue for infrastructure spending. 4,500 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/14 1,000 800
Local flashes TLKM: Indonesia's Telkom 2014 net profit up 2.8 pct, lags forecasts. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk, Indonesia's biggest telecommunication operator, posted a 2.8 percent rise in its 2014 net profit, missing forecasts. The company reported a net profit of 14.6 trillion rupiah ($1.12 billion) for the full year ended December, up from 14.2 trillion rupiah a year earlier. That was below the 15.53 trillion rupiah average estimate of 22 analysts, according to Thomson Reuters data. (Reuters) AKRA: AKR Corporindo establish a new subsidiary industry and trade. PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) established a new subsidiary. It seems that the establishment of subsidiaries in the context of the company's plan to work on a power plant in East Java. President Director AKRA Haryanto Adikoesoemo said, the company has signed a deed of a limited liability company (PT) on PT Energi Manyar Sejahtera (EMS). (Kontan) PGAS: PGN operated first SPBG in Surabaya. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk operates gas refueling stations (SPBG) in Surabaya, on Monday (9/3). The SPBG is expected to encourage public awareness related to government policies shift the consumption of fuel from oil to gas. A total of 65 operational car Sidoarjo regency governments already use CNG, Gresik regency 70 units, and 25 units of Surabaya City Government. Reason targeting operational car because mobility is high enough, the treatment of the door, and not retail services one by one person. (Kontan) BJBR: Profit Bank Jabar down by 19.8% to IDR1.1trillion. Performance of PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat & Banten Tbk (BJBR) in 2014 are not encouraging since company posted a net profit drop 19.84% to IDR1.1trillion from IDR1.37trillion. Based on the company's financial report published on Monday (03/09/2015), mentioned BJBR consolidated net profit also dropped to IDR1.11trillion from IDR1.37trillion. (Bisnis Indonesia) APLN: Agung Podomoro to issue IDR99billion bond with 11.25% coupon. PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) plans to issue continuous bond I phase IV in 2015 IDR99billion with a fixed interest rate of 11.25% per year. In the disclosure information published on Monday (9/2), mentioned period bond offering will be conducted from 9 March and closed on March 20, 2015. The bonds have a term of five years from the date of emission. (Kontan) BBNI: Launch New Tap Cash, BNI targeting 7 transactions. PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BNI) launches five variants of TapCash BNI card. The Company is targeting 7 transactions from the sales of TapCash. Five new variants consist of TapCash BNI Barong Merah, TapCash BNI Barong Hitam, TapCash BNI Tematik Musik, TapCash BNI Jessie J, and TapCash BNI Chaka Khan. To realize the target, TapCash BNI card accidentally launched to jazz up the Java Jazz Festival 2015 (JJF 2015). BNI Corporate Secretary, Tribunal Tunggadewi said TapCash card has its own advantages. (Koran Sindo) INAF: Indofarma posted a profit of IDR1.16billion last year. PT Indofarma (Persero) Tbk (INAF) improves its business performance. In the consolidated financial statements, INAF posted a profit of IDR1.16billion in 2014. Meanwhile, in late 2013, INAF loss of IDR54.22billion. Last year, the state-owned pharmaceutical company posted revenue of IDR1.38trillion, up 3.75% from IDR1.33trillion at the same period previous year. Then the cost of goods sales up 7% from IDR999.993billion to IDR1.06trillion. (Kontan) 2
Sector Analysis Market Recap JCI plunged -1.3% as of yesterday s closing price to 5,444.6 after it broke all time high last Friday at 5,514.8. Investors were pulling their money yesterday with net sell of USD21.1mn due to sentiment from the U.S Fed might increasing the interest rate sooner than expected. While the USDIDR finally breaks the cap at IDR13,051/USD or -0.58% weakened compare to last Friday. Sector Trend From the sector point of view, Agriculture was the only sector that happened to be in the positive zone (+0.7%) while the others were on negative side with Property & Construction as the worst sector performance (-2.3%). Stock Selection Bank Mandiri (BMRI -7.4%) as the worst performing stock followed by Bank Central Asia (BBCA -5.8%) and Astra International (ASII -5.4%). These are all large cap stocks which we think are more sensitive to the macroeconomic issue. Chart 1. JCI Daily Performance 5,600 5,400 5,200 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 02/14 05/14 08/14 11/14 02/15 Chart 2. JCI Weekly Performance 5,600 5,400 5,200 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 02/13 08/13 02/14 08/14 02/15 Chart 3. JCI Annual Performance 6,000 5,500 4,500 4,000 Chart 4. Sector Performance (%) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 1D 1M 1W 3,500 02/12 11/12 08/13 05/14 02/15 3
Chart 5. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,600 USD/IDR (R) 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 12/8 12/22 1/5 1/19 2/2 2/16 3/2 13,300 13,100 12,900 12,700 12,500 12,300 12,100 11,900 11,700 11,500 11,300 Chart 6. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) 20 16 12 8 4 0-4 0.0-1.3-0.6 2.3 3.1 2.3 Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute 16.416.0 1D 1W 1M 1Y Relative Chart 7. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 8. Energy price (USDmn) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0-200 269 888 132 527 13 69 16 81 Note: The latest figure for India is March, 5 th; 1 Day 5 Days 1,513-6 -7 465 Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India (USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 70 2,500 2,400 60 2,300 2,200 50 2,100 2,000 40 1,900 12/14 12/14 1/15 1/15 2/15 2/15 3/15 Chart 9. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 12/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 Chart 10. Precious metal price Silver Gold Platinum 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 12/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4
Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 14,375 354,416-1.5 1.1 4.5 36.9 19.6 18.8 4.2 3.9 23.3 22.3 Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 11,800 275,333-2.5-1.7 1.5 28.3 12.7 12.3 2.4 2.3 20.9 20.2 Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 12,925 318,849-1.1-0.2 10.9 42.4 11.9 11.9 2.9 2.7 27.4 24.6 Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 6,700 124,946-1.1-2.2-1.5 38.4 10.6 10.5 1.9 1.9 20.2 18.8 Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,805 46,054-2.4-0.9 4.0 15.1 16.7 12.9 1.3 1.3 8.1 10.1 Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 4,235 24,734 0.4 2.0 4.6-1.7 12.5 10.4 2.5 1.8 24.2 18.8 PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 1,205 5,670-2.8-10.1-6.6 45.2 12.5 9.3 1.9 1.7 16.2 18.6 Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 700 4,305-1.4-3.4-12.5-14.6 8.2 6.6 N/A N/A 13.9 20.7 Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON 505 24,321-1.0-6.5-1.0 39.1 11.9 9.3 3.5 2.7 32.3 31.7 Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI 585 11,495-4.1-11.4-7.1-1.7 8.5 7.4 1.6 1.3 20.3 19.7 Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 2,050 37,662-1.9-6.8-2.4 25.0 14.5 12.9 2.4 2.1 16.8 16.4 CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 1,005 3,427 0.0-7.4-7.4 24.1 17.7 14.0 3.7 3.2 21.3 22.6 Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 3,190 5,746-2.3-6.3-8.1 25.6 19.3 15.1 3.6 2.8 19.7 19.7 Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 3,425 21,061-2.3-5.6-3.8 51.9 26.1 20.2 4.9 4.2 19.3 21.0 Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,885 18,813-1.9-4.3-0.9 144.3 32.5 27.0 7.2 6.2 24.3 25.3 Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,705 16,585-4.2-5.8-3.1 130.4 28.3 27.4 5.0 4.9 19.2 18.6 RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 7,375 64,756-1.3-0.7 0.3-0.3 13.6 12.5 2.2 2.0 16.0 15.9 Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,815 85,078-1.6-0.8-1.4 28.3 33.6 28.3 7.8 6.8 24.5 25.1 Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,350 8,881 0.0-1.4-7.8-20.1 28.9 18.6 3.1 2.7 11.6 15.8 Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 37,500 286,125-0.8 3.0 5.6 32.7 46.7 41.2 55.8 48.9 124.5 126.0 Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 14,225 82,945-2.1-0.7 0.4 30.8 26.3 22.9 5.1 4.6 20.2 20.5 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 735 5,216-2.6 2.8-8.7-47.5 12.5 11.4 1.5 1.4 11.9 12.3 Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 24,850 22,225 0.0 1.4 1.7-18.1 28.2 21.4 4.6 3.9 18.0 19.8 Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES 820 14,063-0.6-1.2 9.3 4.5 22.4 19.2 5.1 4.2 24.2 23.4 Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 53,975 103,853-0.6-1.9-3.4 14.0 17.5 15.4 2.8 2.5 16.9 17.2 Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,215 6,150-2.8 0.0-6.5 4.7 25.1 19.8 5.3 4.3 22.7 23.0 AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 7,950 321,844-1.5 1.0 4.3 9.3 15.7 15.2 3.1 3.0 21.4 20.1 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3,990 11,033-0.3-0.3-0.3-23.6 25.4 26.6 2.3 1.8 9.6 7.2 Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 3,640 17,544-0.4-0.3-5.0-2.5 23.2 15.9 2.2 1.8 9.8 11.6 TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2,945 296,856-1.3-0.2 3.5 36.1 19.1 17.4 4.1 3.9 22.8 22.4 XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 4,460 38,064-1.7-5.8-11.2 2.5 N/A 35.2 3.0 2.5-6.1 6.8 Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,115 22,361 0.0-1.0 5.0 2.9 20.2 21.1 1.4 1.4 4.1 6.6 INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 7,025 47,770-1.7-1.4-0.7 26.6 34.2 27.4 4.9 4.4 14.9 16.2 Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 9,150 43,888-2.1-1.6-0.8 50.6 35.3 24.9 11.5 6.2 32.7 31.6 MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 985 9,395-1.5-2.5-4.8-10.5 N/A 35.7 0.9 0.9-6.3 3.0 Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 1,005 7,485-3.4 0.0-10.7-16.7 13.5 12.6 1.6 1.4 12.2 13.0 Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 10,775 24,827-1.4-2.0-3.6 13.1 13.5 12.7 3.2 2.5 25.2 21.6 CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 24,000 88,350-1.2 0.0 0.4 5.3 16.2 14.3 3.2 2.8 20.4 20.4 Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,870 14,330-1.6-0.5-5.3-29.3 25.1 15.2 2.0 1.5 11.1 9.9 Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 14,750 87,490-1.3-1.0 0.2-3.6 17.3 15.1 4.0 3.3 24.8 22.5 *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 5
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2,351.6 0.7 IIKP IJ 2500 8,400 16.28 Mining 1,316.6-0.7 GJTL IJ 1300 4,530 (2.62) Basic-Industry 516.3-1.1 SILO IJ 13700 15,839 4.58 Miscellaneous Industry 1,368.6-1.3 SIAP IJ 383 9,192 2.13 Consumer Goods 2,272.7-1.1 VIVA IJ 550 9,055 1.85 Property & Construction 546.4-2.3 SMAR IJ 6650 19,100 1.14 Infrastructure 1,132.8-1.1 SUPR IJ 9300 10,579 1.09 Finance 795.6-1.4 LSIP IJ 1890 12,895 0.80 Trade 983.4-1.6 NISP IJ 1480 16,980 0.7 Composite 5,444.6-1.3 MYRX IJ 755 10,729 0.7 Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close IIKP IJ 16.3 2,500 BMRI IJ -2.5 11,800 SILO IJ 4.6 13,700 BBCA IJ -1.5 14,375 SMAR IJ 1.1 6,650 ASII IJ -1.6 7,950 SIAP IJ 2.1 383 UNTR IJ -5.2 20,625 PALM IJ 4.6 575 TLKM IJ -1.3 2,945 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 2:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 20.4% 2:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 3.2% 3.1% 3:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.2% 1.5% 5:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 0.4% All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings 9:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 99.2 97.9 10:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.04M 5.03M 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.0% 0.1% 10:35am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 2:30pm GBP MPC Member McCafferty Speaks 6:05pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks 7:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 8.0% 7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -3.9% 8.3% 7:50pm JPY PPI y/y 0.5% 0.3% 8:30pm AUD Home Loans m/m -1.9% 2.7% 11th-13th NZD REINZ HPI m/m -1.0% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2015. 6