Friday, 28, From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON NOV 02 EUR/USD: (1.4170) Rebound has met 2 nd target off 1.3690 (see graph) at 1.4215 1.3495 FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.41710, 1.41730, 1.41698, 1.41710, +0.00006) HOURLY CHARTS 1.3360 1.3690 1.3145 Move above1.3690 (see graph: neckline Double Bottom) has met 2 nd target of pattern (1.4215) and approached 61.8% Retracement of drop from year high (1.4254): currently back in Flag off 1.3145. Support at 1.4158/.4146 (today s low?/ break-up hourly), with next levels at 1.4094 (daily envelope bottom), ahead of 1.4055 (break-up hourly + daily modified Alpha Beta trend bottom) and 1.4017 daily Short Term Moving Average ): ideal area to stay above to keep current short tone on. Failure to hold would see next levels at 1.3976 (break-up daily), ahead of 1.3915 (break-up hourly) and 1.3878/.3865 (daily Medium Term Moving Average / reaction low hourly), where pause favored.. Resistance at 1.4200 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 1.4248/.4254 (current recovery high off 1.3145 + daily Bollinger top/ 61.8% 1.4940 to 1.3145) and 1.4275 (daily modified Alpha Beta trend top), where pause favored. Failure to cap would see next levels at ahead of 1.4296 (daily envelope top), ahead of 1.4330/.4359 (daily Starc top/ breakdown daily): suspect tough on 1 st attempts, amid overextended readings. 1.4248 1.435 1.430 1.425 1.420 1.415 1.410 1.405 1.400 1.395 1.390 1.385 1.380 1.375 1.370 1.365 1.360 1.355 1.350 1.345 1.340 1.335 1.330 1.325 1.320 1.315 1.310 1.305 1.4158/.4146 (see above/ break-up hourly) 1.4200 (see 1.4094 (see 1.4248/.4254 (see above + daily Bollinger to/ 61.8% 1.4940 to 1.3145) 1.4055/.4017 (break-up hourly + see above/ daily ST MA ) 1.4296/.4330 (daily envelope top/ daily Starc top) KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
Friday, Oct 28, USD/JPY: (75.86) New historic low on move below Triangle pattern (see graph) FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (75.890, 75.890, 75.870, 75.876, -0.004) 77.86 77.9 77.8 77.7 77.48 77.6 77.5 77.4 77.3 77.2 77.1 77.0 76.9 76.8 76.7 76.6 76.5 76.4 76.3 76.2 76.1 76.0 75.9 75.8 75.7 75.66 75.6 75.5 New historic low has been scored on move below Triangle pattern (see graph): pair currently back above daily Downtrendline off 81.49 (75.70) and currently back below the daily Downtrendline off 85.53 (76.46 today). Resistance at 76.33/ 76.48 (reaction high hourly + daily enveloped top/ current week high), with next levels at 76.67/ 76.77 (breakdown daily/ weekly envelope top), ahead of 77.23/ 77.35 (daily Starc top/ daily Bollinger top), where pause favored. Failure to cap would see next levels at 77.48/ 77.59 (Oct 12 high + daily Starc top/ reaction high hourly), ahead of 77.86/ 77.88 (Sept 09 high. 38.2 % 81.49 to 75.66) and 78.30 ( Aug breakdown daily): tough on 1 st attempts. 1 st Support area at 75.82/ 75.79 (daily Bollinger bottom/ today s low?), ahead of 75.68/ 75.66 (weekly envelope bottom/ new historic low), where pause favored. Failure to hold would see next levels at 75.26 (daily projection band bottom), ahead of 75.03/ 74.93 (monthly envelope bottom/ daily Starc bottom): tough on 1 st attempts 75.82/ 75.79 (daily Bollinger bottom/ see 76.33/ 76.48 (see above/ current week high) 75.68/ 75.66 (weekly envelope bottom / new historic low) 76.67/ 76.77 (breakdown daily/ see 75.03/ 74.93 (see above/ daily Starc bottom) 77.35/ 77.48 (daily Bollinger top/ Oct 12 high) KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
Friday, Oct 28, EUR/GBP: (.8813) Above.8795 (see graph).8531 FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8810, 0.8814, 0.8807, 0.8813, +0.0003).8795.8532.8670 0.886 0.885 0.884 0.883 0.882 0.881 0.880 0.879 0.878 0.877 0.876 0.875 0.874 0.873 0.872 0.871 0.870 0.869 0.868 0.867 0.866 0.865 0.864 0.863 0.862 0.861 0.860 0.859 0.858 0.857 0.856 0.855 0.854 0.853 0.852 0.851 Pair above.8795 (see graph) and back above the daily Uptrendline off year low (.8786 today). Support at.8803 (reaction low hourly), with next levels at.8786/.8772 (see above/ break-up hourly + daily envelope bottom), ahead of.8742/.8739 (daily Short Term Moving Average + daily modified Alpha Beta trend bottom/ daily Medium Term Moving Average ), where pause favored. Failure to hold would see next levels at.8708/.8706 (daily Long Term Moving Average / daily Bollinger midline) tough on 1 st attempts. 1 st Resistance at.8831 (current week high? + daily projection band top), ahead of.8842/.8846 (Sept 06 high + daily Bollinger top/ daily modified Alpha Beta trend top + daily envelope top), where pause favored. Failure to cap would see next levels at.8872 (61.8%.9084 to.8531), ahead of.8886 (Aug Highs + neckline daily Triple Bottom): tough on 1 st attempts..8803 (see.8831 (see.8786/.8772 (see above/ break-up hourly + see.8742/.8739 (daily ST MA + see above/ daily MT MA ).8842/.8846 (Sept 06 high + daily Bollinger top/ see.8872/.8886 (61.8%.9084 to.8531/ Aug highs + see KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
Friday, Oct 28, EUR/JPY (107.57) Has met 1 st target off 104.96 (see graph) at 107.98 31 FOREX EURJPY=EBS (107.530, 107.577, 107.517, 107.547, +0.028) 107.68 107.00 104.96 103.90 100.77 5 111.5 111.0 110.5 110.0 109.5 109.0 108.5 108.0 107.5 107.0 106.5 106.0 105.5 105.0 104.5 104.0 103.5 103.0 102.5 102.0 101.5 101.0 100.5 100.0 Rebound off 100.77 has sent the pair settling back in the daily channel off 123.33 and above 104.96 (see graph), with 1 st target having been met (107.98) and broken Uptrendline retested. Resistance at 108.13 (current recovery high off 100.77), with next levels at 108.30/.48 (daily modified Alpha Beta trend top/ daily envelope top + broken daily Uptrendline off low), where pause favored. Failure to cap would see next levels at 108.73/.75 (daily Bollinger top/ breakdown hourly), ahead of 109.15/ 109.38 (2 nd target off 104.96 / 38.2% 123.33 to 100.77): tough on 1 st attempts. Support at 107.35/.04 (today s low?/ daily envelope bottom), with next levels at 106.86 (daily modified Alpha Beta trend bottom), ahead of 106.60/.48/ (daily Short Term Moving Average / break-up hourly), where pause favored Failure to hold would see next levels at 106.23/.11 (daily Medium Term Moving Average / reaction low hourly), ahead of 105.68 (idem) and 105.08 (daily Bollinger midline) : tough on 1 st attempts. 107.35/.04 (today s low?/ see 108.13 (see 106.86 (see 106.60/.46 (daily ST MA / see 108.30/.48 (see above/ broken daily Uptrendline off year low + see 108.73/ 109.38 (daily Bollinger top/ 38.2% 123.33 to 100.77) KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
Friday, Oct 28, Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force Piet Lammens +32 2 417 59 41 Peter Wuyts +32 2 417 32 35 Brussels Didier Hanesse +32 2 417 59 43 Corporate Desk +32 2 417 45 82 Mathias Van Der Jeugt +32 2 417 51 94 Commercial Desk +32 2 417 53 23 Joke Mertens +32 2 417 30 59 Institutional Desk +32 2 417 46 25 Dublin Research (IIB) Austin Hughes +353 1 6646892 London +44 207 256 4848 Prague Research (CSOB) Frankfurt +49 69 756 19372 Jan Cermak +420 2 6135 3578 Paris +33 153 89 83 15 Jan Bures +420 2 6135 3574 New York +1 212 541 06 97 Petr Baca +420 2 6135 3570 Singapore +65 533 34 10 Bratislava Research (CSOB) Marek Gabris +421 2 5966 8400 Prague +420 2 6135 3535 Bratislava. +421 2 5966 8436 Warsaw Research (Kredytbank) Budapest +36 1 328 99 63 Piotr Radzewicz +48 22 6345 946 Warsaw +48 22 634 5210 Budapest Research (K&H) Moscow +7 495 228 69 61 Gyorgy Barcza +36 1 328 99 89 Our reports are also available on: www.kbc.be/dealingroom This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice. KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5