IBB Meeting Biodiesel Feedstock Outlook September 14th, 2017 INTL FCStone Financial, LLC
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AGENDA Corn, Soybean, Soybean Oil and Animal Fat Supply/Demand Historical Prices Biodiesel Margins 2018 Outlook 3
USDA CORN SUPPLY/DEMAND 4
USDA SOYBEAN SUPPLY/DEMAND 5
DOLLAR CHART 6
CFTC FUND POSITION 7
USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 8
USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 9
USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND *Crush Formula ((Soyoil cash price X 11.646) + (Soymeal cash price X 2.37))-(Soybean cash price) 35 Using -1 cent soyoil basis, -15 dollar meal basis, -30 cent soybean basis old crop an -25 cent new crop 10
USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 11
USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 12
HISTORICAL PRICES 13
US ANIMAL FAT & GREASE SUPPLY/DEMAND 14
US ANIMAL FAT & GREASE SUPPLY/DEMAND 15
US ANIMAL FAT & GREASE SUPPLY/DEMAND 16
HISTORICAL PRICES *Jacobsen Prices. Using 7.35 lbs as density for Biodiesel 17
HISTORICAL PRICES *Jacobsen Prices. Using 7.35 lbs as density for Biodiesel 18
BIODIESEL MARGINS 19
2017/18 OUTLOOK 20
2017/18 OUTLOOK 21
2017/18 OUTLOOK Takeaways We are looking at yet another year of massive production numbers Corn vs. Beans will be an interesting fight for acres next year, corn needs to find some footing When will the dollar help spur exports to reduce ending stock Biodiesel is in one of the most dynamic periods ever, many moving parts South American trade wars will in all likelihood continue or escalate What will China do? Peoples Republic of California 22
THANK YOU Billy Burns INTL FCStone Financial, LLC Risk Management Consultant Billy.Burns@intlfcstone.com 816-410-7445 23