Information. Transactions. Advisory. Information. Transactions. Advisory.
North American Assembly October 13, 2016 Houston, Texas Trends in the M&A Market Strong and Strategic Recovery Underway Brian Lidsky Managing Director PLS Inc. Houston, Texas PLS Inc. 2 www.plsx.com
State of the A&D Market Marketplace roaring back after early 2016 stall Strongly signaling the best plays Overview - Increasing Deal Volumes Valuation Daily bbl/mcf flowing metrics trend Most Favored Play Permian Region swamps all other plays for deals A look at Midland Basin vs. Delaware Basin Acreage is Valuable - Selectively: Q3 2016 acreage value of $11.3 billion surpasses the pre-crash high of $10.0 billion in Q3 2014 Cross Currents impacting the markets Key Takeaways Oil: NGL: Gas: $35,000 - $45,000 bbl/d Valued at 25% - 33% of oil multiple $2,500 - $4,000 Mcf/d PLS Inc. 3 www.plsx.com
U.S. Spotlight Production valuation benchmarks Multiples are $36,000 for oil & $2,500 for gas a 14:1 ratio $/Daily BOE $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $120,000 Oil Multiple ($/Daily bbl) $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Gas Multiple ($/Daily boe 6:1) $36,000 $6,500 $2,500 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q12015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Notes: 1. Quarterly benchmarks derived from standard criteria from US M&A Database. a. Conventional Deals b. Oil deals >70% oil. Gas deals > 70% gas. c. Trailing 6 months d. R/P is 5 to 20 years 2. Gas converted to boe at a 6:1 ratio 3. Deal Value > $10 million PLS Inc. 4 www.plsx.com
Oil vs. Gas Top 5 Deals in Q3 2016 A valuation look at pure play commodity deals Oil Deals - Greater than or Equal to 70% Oil Date Buyers Sellers Value Type US Play % Oil $/Daily bbl $/Proved bbl $/Acre Oil 12-M Strip 09/12/16 Anadarko Freeport-McMoRan $2,000 Property GOM 80% $21,250 $13.50 - $48.48 07/22/16 Riverstone; Silver Run Natural Gas Partners $1,735 Company 08/15/16 Concho Resources Reliance Energy $1,625 Property 08/08/16 SM Energy Rock Oil $980 Property 07/13/16 Diamondback Luxe Energy $560 Property Delaware Unconv. Midland Unconv. Midland Unconv. Delaware Unconv. 71% $29,110 $4.31 $35,892 $47.70 70% $29,444 $6.85 $33,264 $47.72 77% $30,050 $24.54 $33,602 $45.24 80% $31,600 - $26,898 $49.73 Total $6,900 Mean $28,291 $12.30 $32,414 $47.77 Median $29,444 $10.18 $33,433 $47.72 Natural Gas Deals - Greater than or Equal to 70% Gas Date Buyers Sellers 09/26/16 Rice Energy Vantage; Vantage II Value Type US Play % Gas $/Daily Mcf $/Proved Mcf $/Acre Gas 12-M Strip $2,700 Company Marcellus 93% $2,429 $0.51 $13,306 $3.12 09/09/16 Total Chesapeake $420 Property Barnett 96% $1,077 $0.86 - $3.05 07/05/16 Mountain Capital Harbinger Group $145 Company Conventional 78% $2,959 - - $3.18 09/06/16 Red Willow Samson Resources $116 Property Conventional 100% $1,805 $0.43 - $2.99 07/14/16 Antero Resources Statoil $96 Property Marcellus 80% $2,733 $0.43 $7,634 $2.99 Total $3,477 Mean $2,200 $0.56 $10,470 $3.07 Median $2,429 $0.60 $10,470 $3.05 PLS Inc. 5 www.plsx.com
Deal Value Since January 1, 2014 Rapidly increasing quarterly deal values in 2016 the worst is behind us $ Billions $29.5 $27.9 $24.2 $20.6 $15.9 $16.7 $7.7 $9.5 $11.2 $5.6 $2.9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 2016 Alaska Ark-La-Tex Eastern Gulf Coast Gulf of Mexico Midcontinent Multi Region Permian Rockies West Coast PLS Inc. 6 www.plsx.com
Top 20 US E&P Transactions: Q3 2016 Permian takes 50% Marcellus, GOM and Niobrara round out top 10 Rice Energy acquires Marcellus producer Vantage Energy $2,700 EOG Resources acquires Yates Petroleum and affiliates $2,451 Anadarko acquires Gulf of Mexico assets from Freeport-McMoRan $2,000 Silver Run and Riverstone buy Delaware-focused Centennial Concho acquires Midland Basin assets from Reliance PDC enters Delaware Basin with buy of Arris Petroleum & 299 $1,505 $1,625 $1,735 SM Energy acquires Midland assets of Rock Oil $980 Diamondback buys Delaware Basin assets from Luxe EnVen Energy buys assets in the Gulf of Mexico from Shell Extraction acquires DJ Basin assets from Bayswater Total acquires Barnett assets of Chesapeake Energy Parsley Energy acquires Midland Basin assets Apache leases new Alpine High Resource play EOG divests non-core producing assets Callon acquires Midland Basin assets from Plymouth Newfield sells Eagle Ford assets to Protégé Whiting Petroleum divests North Ward Estes Continental sells eastern SCOOP assets Continental Resources sells Bakken assets Rebellion enters stalking horse bid for Samson SCOOP/STACK $560 $425 $420 $420 $400 $399 $398 $327 $310 $300 $281 $222 $153 USD Million Permian Deal Non-Permian Deal PLS Inc. 7 www.plsx.com
Permian: A closer look at Midland Basin vs. Delaware Basin Delaware Basin values trending at 70% of Midland Basin on both a $/acre & a $/location metric Midland Basin Top deals of Q3 Date Buyers Sellers Value Primary County Net Acres % HBP Acreage Value $/Acre Net Locations Per Location 08/15/16 Concho Resources Reliance Energy $1,625 Martin 40,000 N/A $1,331 $33,264 530 $2.51 08/08/16 SM Energy Rock Oil $980 Howard 24,783 N/A $833 $33,602 972 $0.86 08/15/16 Parsley Energy PLS Confidential $400 Glasscock 9,140 99% $392 $42,880 215 $1.82 09/06/16 Callon Petroleum Plymouth Petroleum $327 Howard 5,667 74% $252 $44,463 112 $2.25 07/14/16 Laredo Petroleum PLS Confidential $125 Glasscock 9,200 85% $118 $12,768 - - Total $3,457 Mean $33,395 $1.86 Weighted Average $34,790 Median $33,602 $2.04 $/Acre Delaware Basin Top 5 deals of Q3 Date Buyers Sellers Value Primary County Net Acres % HBP Acreage Value $/Acre Net Locations Per Location 09/06/16 EOG Resources Yates Petroleum $2,451 Eddy 186,000 74% $1,678 $9,031 1,700 $0.99 07/22/16 Riverstone; Silver Run Natural Gas Partners $1,735 Reeves 42,500 63% $1,525 $35,892 1,140 $1.34 08/23/16 PDC Energy Arris Petroleum; 299 $1,505 Reeves 57,000 30% $1,342 $23,542 660 $2.03 07/13/16 Diamondback Luxe Energy $560 Reeves 19,180 N/A $516 $26,898 290 $1.78 09/07/16 Apache Mineral Owners $399 Reeves 307,000 N/A $399 $1,300 2500 $0.16 Total $6,650 Mean $19,333 $1.26 Weighted Average $/Acre $21,224 Median $23,542 $1.34 PLS Inc. 8 www.plsx.com
Acreage: An Eye-popping $11.3 billion in Value for Acreage in Q3 2016 Permian takes 80% of all value paid for acreage $ Billions $12.0 $11.3 $10.0 $10.0 $8.0 $8.1 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $2.2 $2.6 $4.1 $2.2 $3.6 $1.3 $0.0 $0.3 $0.4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 2016 Bakken Barnett Conventional Delaware Unconventional Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Midcontinent Unconventional Midland Unconventional Mississippian Lime Niobrara Other Permian Unconventional SCOOP/STACK Note: Includes deals > $25 million PLS Inc. 9 www.plsx.com
Proved Reserves: $8.7 billion of Value Allocated in Q3 2016 Conventional plays changing hands and account for 42% of the PDP market $ Billions $16.0 $14.0 $14.6 $12.8 $12.0 $10.0 $10.8 $9.7 $8.7 $8.0 $6.0 $5.6 $5.8 $4.0 $2.0 $1.7 $1.2 $4.2 $2.8 $0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 2016 Bakken Barnett Coal Bed Methane Conventional Delaware Unconventional Eagle Ford Marcellus Midcontinent Unconventional Midland Unconventional Mississippian Lime Niobrara Other Permian Unconventional SCOOP/STACK Note: Includes deals > $25 million PLS Inc. 10 www.plsx.com
Tailwinds & Headwinds Cross Currents impacting the marketplace Tailwinds General Consensus that the worst of commodity prices are behind us Strong Wall Street equity support for select leading E&Ps to immediately fund acquisitions Gaining recognition that the majority of cost reductions in drilling, completing and operating are structural in nature Continuous improvement in technology and recovery Plenty of inventory via bankruptcy, corporate play exits, repositioning Headwinds Commercial Banks requiring higher coverage ratios and restricting capital Balance sheet repair still in progress for many companies Regulatory and Social Challenges BOEM increasingly instituting higher costs for GOM operators OCC monitoring earthquake activity closely related to SWD NIMBY movement growing (North Dakota, New York, Colorado) PLS Inc. 11 www.plsx.com
Deals on the Market Today Currently advertised deals available at www.plsx.com/listings PLS Inc. 12 www.plsx.com
Key Takeaways A&D Markets score $21 billion in Q3 approaching levels seen pre-crash Permian Basin takes 55% Value paid for acreage (80% in Permian) is at or above pre-crash levels A bifurcated market exists between growth assets and PDP assets Strong capital support from Wall Street equity raises for select strong E&Ps, commercial banks have pulled in the reins Plenty of traditional inventory exists across all the plays As prices increase, next waves of higher activity likely to come from Eagle Ford and Bakken consolidators. PLS Inc. 13 www.plsx.com