ASEAN as a Global Automotive Hub: Challenges for Industry and Higher Education Institution Indonesia Perspective Green Drive Project Conference, Antwerpen, 22-23 Sept 2016 Andi Isra Mahyuddin, Tatacipta Dirgantara, Sigit Puji Santosa Faculty of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung, INDONESIA
GDP ($ trilion) World GDP (2015) 4.12 3.36 2.85 2.44 2.42 2.07 1.81 10.87 17.95 USA CHN JPN DEU GBR ASEAN FRA IND ITA 0 5 10 15 20 Source: World Bank Data
GDP Growth (2015-2019) Country GDP Growth (%) China 6.8 India 6.7 Average of ASEAN 5.6 Indonesia 6.0 Malaysia 5.6 The Philippines 6.2 Thailand 4.1 Vietnam 5.7 Source: OECD Development Centre
GDP Per Capita ASEAN (2015) Country GDP Per Capita ($) GDP Growth Per Capita (%) Singapore 52.888,7 0.8 Brunei Darussalam 36.607,9-1,9 Malaysia 9.766,2 3,5 Thailand 5.816,4 2,5 Indonesia 3.346,5 3,5 The Philippines 2.899,4 4,2 Vietnam 2.111,1 5,5 Lao PDR 1.812,3 5,2 Myanmar 1.203,5 6,1 Cambodia 1.158,7 5,3 Source: World Bank Data
Global Middle Class 2012 $16-$100 per day
Global Middle Class 2020 $16-$100 per day
Global Automotive Production 25 20 15 10 Production 2014 (millions) 6 th -3.9 5 0
Global Automotive Sales 40 35 30 25 Actual Sales 2014 (millions) Projected Sales 2020 (millions) 20 15 10 6 th -3,3 5 th -4,5 5 0
Vehicle Production Road Map - Indonesia 2,5 m by 2020
Total Count (Millions) Vehicle Growth in Indonesia 120 100 80 15 % Growth 60 40 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Source: Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics Bus Truck Motorcycle Passenger Car ASEAN Safety Forum
Daniel H.T., Meragukan Efektifitas Yellow Box Junction, http://www.kompasiana.com/
http://cdn-2.tstatic.net/tribunnews/foto/bank/images/20140410_174340_jakarta-kian-padat.jpg
Challenges For Industry Market domination by Japanese OEM brands: Long history in the market Comprehensive portfolio, dealer networks High brand awareness New OEM market entry will need to develop differentiated and focused value proposition to target specific consumer segments
Issues in Automotive Technology Energy, Environment, Safety Efficient and Safer
Energy Efficient Vehicle Fuel-efficient Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Vehicles Electric Vehicles (EV) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Biodiesel, Bio-Ethanol Hydrogen, Fuel Cell
Challenges For Higher Education Institution (HEI) Little/ No Vehicle Engineering & Development Activity : All design/development done at the OEM home country Manufacturing based still controlled and supported by OEM s suppliers Local content policy by government targets part design and production HEI will need to provide technological solution and to engage OEM/local suppliers to support local content policy
ASEAN as Global Hub HOW To stimulate innovation and the global competitiveness boost workforce skills and improve per capita income improve the environmental friendliness & increase the vehicle safety
National Automotive Policy in ASEAN Promote green technologies and better fuel economy through incentives Local content targets for part design and production To increase economic multiplier effect Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan, and China Cost reduction of 20-50% through no levies and low tariffs
Increase Global Competitiveness Automation and Robotics in Manufacturing Plant Decrease manual workforce Increase the demand of highly skilled talents
National Center for Sustainable Transportation Technology (NCSTT) downstream research in collaboration with industries stimulate new innovations and acquisition of technologies capacity building of local manufacturers especially SME s that produce automotive parts and components
Research Innovation with Industries @NCSTT Delivery vehicle e-trike ITB-Indonesian Postal Office Mass production 2017 R&D on Electric Mass Transport National electric vehicle consortium (5 Indonesian Universities) Development of Train Seat Interior ITB - PT DTI
National Electric Vehicle Research ROAD MAP (Phase 2: 2016-2020) Consortium of 5 national universities Led by ITB Started in 2012 Government funding ($10M) 2016 Grand design and concept vehicle 2017 Component & Subsystem development 2018 2019 Certification & Manufacturing Prototyping/v Confirmation alidation 2020 Mass Production 22
National Electric Vehicle Development Strategy Government Ministries: National Dev Planning Board, State Own Companies, Industry, Research Technology HE, Transport, Finance NCSTT University and Research Institution National Automotive Industry
Platform Development Compact vehicle 4 passengers and cargo Modern design & simple Single Motor 40-60 kw City Car 120 km Lightweight Single Platform Multifunction Technology, Cost, Risk 24 MOLINA
Service to Industry Product Development Technology Acquisition Planning Manufacturing System Get the know-why and know-how Training
Industrial services Development of Silent Chain ITB - PT Astra Otoparts Automation of Spring manufacturing Equipment ITB - PT Chuo Spring Indonesia Development of testing machine for shocks and struts ITB - PT KYB Indonesia
Industrial Internships Real Industrial Project Availability of students & supervisor Industrial Internships First hand experience & in-depth exposure Long term recruitment process
Up stream Research alternative fuel (including bio-fuel) vehicle safety advanced material development green manufacturing technology environmental impact assessment
Up stream Research Metro Capsule Mass Transport Bio-Diesel Catalyst ITB-Pertamina Bio Fuel Research ITB-BMW Crash Box Design Bus Roll Over Bus Roll Over AdvancePorous Material: Al Foam Natural Fiber Composites
Concluding Remarks All stake holders should work in synergy ASEAN automotive market is expected to grow steadily at a CAGR of 6.4%, to reach 4.9 m vehicles in 2020 ASEAN automotive production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6%, to reach 7.6 m vehicles in 2020 ASEAN to be the global production hub, with Indonesia to be the largest automotive market in the region by 2020 Japanese OEM to continue to dominate ASEAN markets. New entry OEM will need to create intense competition with aggressive product offerings Higher Education Institution will need to support technological solution for part localization content strategy
THANK YOU
Global Automotive Production (2014) 2014 Global production (Actual) Rank Country Production (millions) 1 China 23.7 2 USA 11.7 3 Japan 9.8 4 Germany 5.9 5 South Korea 4.5 6 ASEAN 3.9 7 India 3.8 8 Mexico 3.4 9 Brazil 3.1 10 Spain 2.4 EU-ASEAN Business Council, ASEAN An Emerging Global Automotive Hub in the
Global Automotive Sales Ran k 2014 Global Sales (Actual) Country Sales (millions ) Ran k 2020 Global Sales (Projected) Country 1 China 23.5 1 China 34.5 2 USA 16.8 2 USA 17.4 3 Japan 5.6 3 India 7.7 4 Brazil 3.5 4 Brazil 4.9 5 Germany 3.4 5 ASEAN 4.5 6 ASEAN 3.3 6 Japan 4.3 7 India 3.2 7 Russia 3.6 8 UK 2.8 8 Germany 3.4 9 Russia 2.6 9 UK 2.8 Sales (millions ) 10 France 2.2 10 France 2.6 EU-ASEAN Business Council, ASEAN An Emerging Global Automotive Hub in the
World GDP (2015) World bank data 2014 Global production (Actual) GDP ($ Rank Country millions) 1United States 17.946.996 2China 10.866.444 3Japan 4.123.258 4Germany 3.355.772 5United Kingdom 2.848.755 ASEAN 2.442.472 6France 2.421.682 7India 2.073.543 8Italy 1.814.763 9Brazil 1.774.725 10Canada 1.550.537