Curtin Corner 1st of September 2017 Alan Langford Chief Economist Bankwest
10 Real Gross State Product Growth 9 8 7 6 solid bars; WA actual sourced from ABS shaded bars; DAE WA forecasts solid line: actual rest of Aust sourced from ABS dotted line: DAE forecasts rest of Aust per cent 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 financial years ending June
per cent 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 sources: ABS catalogue 3101.0 Annual Population Growth - WA WA population growth 25-year average (1.8%) Sep 02 1.1% Mar 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Dec 16 quarters WA Dec 08 rest of Australia Sep 12 WA before census revisions
Population as at Census Dates (000) Change (%) 2006 2011 2016 5 years 10 years Perth ** 1,512 1,729 1,944 12 29 rest of WA 447 510 531 4 19 WA 1,959 2,239 2,474 11 26 Australia 19,855 21,508 23,402 9 18
Median Age as at Census Dates 2006 2011 2016 Bunbury* 37 39 41 Perth** 36 36 36 WA 36 36 36 Australia 37 37 38
Median Household Income per Week as at Census Dates (000) Change (%) 2006 2011 2016 5 years 10 years Bunbury * 1,007 1,196 1,316 10 31 rest of WA 1,071 1,405 1,582 13 48 Perth ** 1,087 1,455 1,637 13 51 Australia 1,029 1,230 1,432 16 39
WA 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 source:abs catalogue 8731.0 Trend Residential Building Approvals (000) WA (left scale) rest of Australia 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 1.2 rest of Australia (right scale) 1 8 Jan 85 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Jun 17 months 9
per cent 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Residential Rental Vacancy Rate - Perth average since 1980 (3.5 per cent) source: REIWA 0.5 Mar 80 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Jun 17 quarters
volume (mt) 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Australian Iron Ore Export Volumes and Real $A Price (a) notional nominal export prices derived by dividing total value by volume, then converted to real by deflating nominal prices by 2000 tax-change-adjusted CPI solid lines are actual data; dotted lines are Department of Industry, Innovation and Science March 2017 forecasts/projections. nominal weekly spot price source: Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (DIIS) 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Jan 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Aug 17 weeks real price (right scale) 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 22 financial years ending June 2011 AUDUSD assumptions 16-17: 0.72 17-18: 0.76 18-19: 0.73 19-20: 0.73 20-21: 0.74 21-22: 0.75 real $A price (a) volume (left scale) 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30
billion tonnes 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Global Iron Ore Production and Trade (a) China's production adjusted for world average iron content production (a) source: Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (DIIS) production up 81%in 6 years 01 1990 95 00 05 10 15 2019 years 07 trade DIIS forecasts iron ore trade - 2016 (mt) exports Aust: 809 Brazil: 364 Ukraine: 38 India: 9 imports China: 1,035 EU: 140 Japan: 131 Korea: 75
GDP 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 Annual Chinese GDP Growth and Manufacturing PMI per cent 52 51.5 51 50.5 50 49.5 49 50 per cent line monthlly PMI only Jan 13 14 15 16 Aug 17 months Dec 09 PMI (right scale) PMI 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 8 7 Source: Bloomberg 50 per cent PMI line 6 Dec 08 42 5 Mar 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Jun 17 quarters Mar 09 GDP (left scale) 46 44
oil ($/barrel) US Natural Gas and WTI Oil Prices ($US) gas (a) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 $/mbtu Source: US Energy Information Agency (EIA). Solid lines are actual, dotted lines are EIA forecasts NYMEX gas futures weekly since 2014 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 source: Bloomberg 1.5 Jan 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul Aug 17 weeks 10 0 Jan 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Dec 18 months gas oil (a) wellhead until 1996, Henry Hub since 1997, both measured in $/million btu 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
35 30 source: US Energy Information Agency (EIA) US Gas Production 25 trillion cubic feet 20 15 10 5 shale only(bcf/day): Marcellus (Pa/WV/Oh/NY): 16.3 Eaf\gle Ford (Tx): 4.4 Utica (Oh/Pa/WV): 3.9 Haynesville (Tx/La): 3.8 Barnett (Tx): 3.2 Total: 42.9 of which is from shale 0 1950 60 70 80 90 00 10 2016 years
WTI Oil Price and Notional Australian LNG Export Prices WTI ($US/barrel) price ($/tonne) (a) 110 750 100 90 80 70 60 (a): notinal $A price, derived by dividing export value by volume, sourced from DIIS dotted lines are DIIS forecasts 700 650 600 550 500 450 50 40 30 LNG (right scale) WTI (left scale) 400 350 300 250 20 200 10 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 financial years ending June 150
Petroleum Exploration - WA $billion 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 source: ABS catalogue 8412.0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 years
600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Mineral Exploration Other than Petroleum - WA $million WA's share (%) WA's share (%) (right scale) $million (left scale) source: ABS catalogue 8412.0 50 Mar 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Mar 17 quarters 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42
1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 3-year moving average Perth regional office Annual Rainfall (mm) decade averages Perth Airport 1950s: 831 1960s: 845 1970s: 741 1980s: 748 1990s: 766 2000s: 683 2010s: 656 mm 900 850 800 750 700 650 source: Bureau of Meteorology Perth airport 600 1880 90 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 2016 years
Australian Dollar Against US Dollar 1.05 0.81 0.8 daily - 2017 1 'banana republic' 0.79 0.78 Jul 08 0.95 0.9 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 taper starts $US per $A 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.73 0.72 J F M A M J J A days Fed first flags intention to taper 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 peak to trough fall in late 2008 was similar to Paul Keating's mid-1980s 'banana republic' decline - but what took two and half years back then took less than three months in the wake of Lehman Brothers collpapse Feb 09 0.45 Jan 84 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Aug 17 months GFC sources: RBA, Bloomberg
Trade-Weighted Index Exchange Rates index - January 1984 = 100 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 index - 01/07/16 = 100 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 daily - 2017 start of 1997 Asian currency crisis $US $A J F M A M J J A days sources: RBA, Fed $A $US 60 55 Lehman Jan 84 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Aug 17 months
7 Australian Dollar Against Chinese renminbi (yuan) 6.5 6 5.5 5 yuan per $A 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 5.4 5.35 5.3 5.25 5.2 5.15 5.1 5.05 5 sources: RBA; Bloomberg daily - 2017 J F M A M J J A days 1.5 Jan 84 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Aug 17 months
600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Net Short-Term Overseas Departures and Exchange Rate net departures (trend estimates) monthly since 2010 net departures (trend) 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 58 Jan 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Aug 17 months (a) trade-weighted index (TWI) value of the Australian dollar XR 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 net departures (left scale) sources: ABS catalogue 3401.0; RBA Exchange Rate (a) TWI (right scale) -400 45 Mar 85 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Jun 17 quarters 80 75 70 65 60 55 50
education credits (a) 6 5 Net Education Credits and the Exchange Rate (a) net education credits as %of total exports of goods and services education (left scale) AUDSUD 1.5 1.4 1.3 4 3 2 1 0-1 sources : ABS catalogue 3401.0; RBA AUDUSD (right scale) 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 years ending June 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
*: includes Waroona, Busselton, Dunsborough, Margaret River, Augusta, Australind, Dardanup, Nannup, Northcliffe, Windy Harbour, Walpole, Bridgetown, Manjimup, Pemberton, Balingup. **: Greater Perth, including from Two Rocks to Dawesville, Pinjarra, Herron, Clifton, Bullsbrook, The Lakes, Wooroloo. Source: ABS census time series portal.