US Economic Briefing: Regional Business Surveys ch 29, 19 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Regional M-PMIs 1 National vs Regional M-PMIs 2 Regional Business Conditions Indexes 3 Regional New 4 Regional Production 5 Regional 6 Chicago PMI 7 Dallas Fed Survey 8 Kansas City Fed Survey 9 New York Fed Survey Philadelphia Fed Survey 11 Richmond Fed Survey 12 Regional Business Indexes 13-16 ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Figure 1. REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES* Regional M-PMIs - - - - - - - - Composite NY & Philly (=8.7) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=8.6) NY, Philly, Dallas, and Richmond (=8.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=9.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=9.9) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 New NY and Philly (=2.5) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=2.4) NY, Philly, Dallas, and Richmond (=4.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=4.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=4.1) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - - - - - - - - - NY and Philly (=11.7) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=12.2) NY, Philly, Dallas, and Richmond (=14.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas ( (=14.7) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=13.8) - - - 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. - Page 1 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
7 Figure 2. National vs Regional M-PMIs NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs* 6 5 National Composite M-PMI (Feb=54.2) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond ( (=9.1) - 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs - 5 National M-PMI (Feb=55.5) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (=4.1) - 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-65 6 55 5 45 35 US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs National M-PMI (52.3) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (14.7) - - - - 25 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond. -5 Page 2 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
8 7 Figure 3. Regional Business Conditions Indexes CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER INDEX* NEW YORK GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX** 6 6 5-4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-8 6 DALLAS CURRENT GENERAL BUSINESS INDEX** PHILADELPHIA CURRENT ACTIVITY INDEX** 7 5 - - - - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5 RICHMOND FED COMPOSITE INDEX** KANSAS CITY COMPOSITE INDEX** - - - - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics. 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - Page 3 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Regional New 9 8 Figure 4. CHICAGO* NEW YORK** 6 7 6 5 New New - - 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 6 DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA** 6 5 - New New - - - - - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5 RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY** 6 - New New - - - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics. 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 Page 4 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Regional Production 85 75 Figure 5. CHICAGO* Production DALLAS** 7 5 65 Production 55 45-35 - 25 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5 5 KANSAS CITY** (one-month change, sa) Production - - - - 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Regional 7 Figure 6. CHICAGO* NEW YORK** 6 5 - - - 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA** - - - - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY** - - - 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics. 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - Page 6 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Chicago PMI 8 7 Figure 7. CHICAGO PMI SURVEY Order Backlogs Deliveries 8 7 6 6 5 5 Business Barometer 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 8 7 Production 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 8 7 Prices Paid 9 8 6 5 7 6 New Inventories 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 7 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
8 6 - - -6-8 6 Figure 8. DALLAS FED BUSINESS SURVEY Current General Business Index 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Dallas Fed Survey Unfilled 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - - - Current Company Outlook Index - - -6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 6 8 - - Production Prices Paid: Raw Materials Prices Received: Finished Goods 6 - - -6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 6 6 - - New Volume of Shipments Capacity Utilization - - -6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Haver Analytics. 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 Page 8 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Kansas City Fed Survey 6 Figure 9. KANSAS CITY FED BUSINESS SURVEY Production Backlog of Jul - - - 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - New Volume of Shipments - - Finished Goods Inventories - - 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - Prices Paid Prices Received 5 - - 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Haver Analytics 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5 Page 9 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
6 Figure. NY FED BUSINESS SURVEY* New York Fed Survey - - General Business Conditions Index Workweek - -6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - - - New Shipments Inventories - - -6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - - Delivery Time Prices Received - - - 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - * Diffusion indexes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Page / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Philadelphia Fed Survey 6 5 Figure 11. PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS SURVEY* Current Activity Index 45 15 - - -15 - - - -45-5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 5 Shipments - - - Inventories - - - - - -5-5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 25 15 5-5 - -15 - -25 - -35 - -45 Unfilled 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Current Prices Received 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 45 35 25 15 5-5 -15-25 -35-45 * Diffusion indexes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Page 11 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Richmond Fed Survey Figure 12. RICHMOND FED BUSINESS SURVEY - - Composite Index Wages - - - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - Vendor Lead Time - - New Shipments - -6 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - - -6 Backlog 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Capacity Utilization 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Page 12 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Figure 13. Regional Business Indexes REGIONAL COMPOSITE MANUFACTURING INDEXES* - - -6 New York and Philadelphia (=8.7) and Dallas (=8.6) Dallas, and Richmond (=8.9) Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City (=9.1) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=9.9) 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - - -6 * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutshce Borse Group. Figure 14. REGIONAL NEW ORDERS MANUFACTURING INDEXES - - - - - -5 New York and Philadelphia (=2.5) and Dallas (=2.4) Dallas, and Richmond (=4.1) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (=4.1) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=6.1) 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Bourse. - - - -5 Page 13 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
Figure 15. Regional Business Indexes REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING INDEXES - - -6 New York and Philadelphia (=11.7) and Dallas (=12.2) Dallas, and Richmond (=14.9) 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, and Dallas. Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (=14.7) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=13.8) - - -6 7 Figure 16. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs* 6 5 National Composite M-PMI (Feb=54.2) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond ( (=9.1) - 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - Page 14 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
8 Figure 17. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs Regional Business Indexes 7 6 5 National M-PMI (Feb=55.5) - Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (=4.1) 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond. - 65 Figure 18. US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs 6 55 5 45 - - 35 National M-PMI (52.3) - 25 Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (14.7) 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond. - -5 Page 15 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
15 5-5 - -15 - -25 Figure 19. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management. Regional Business Indexes S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) (5.4) M-PMI (54.2) Feb 66 64 62 6 58 56 54 52 5 48 46 44 42 38 36 34 32 Page 16 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys
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