$ / MWH Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-13 Electric: Short-Term Outlook The NYMEX Northern Illinois Hub 12-month forward price at the end of August 2016 for the September 2016 to August 2017 period was $28.42 per MWH (2.842 per kwh). Twelve-month forward peak and off-peak prices were $34.94 and $23.09 per MWH, respectively. PJM ComEd Zone Day-Ahead hourly index prices in August averaged $30.09 per MWH and Real-Time prices averaged $31.56 per MWH. Day- Ahead peak period prices in August averaged $37.19 per MWH and offpeak prices averaged $23.15 per MWH. Real-Time peak prices averaged $40.66 per MWH and off-peak prices averaged $22.65 per MWH in August. NYMEX Northern Illinois Hub Electric Prices 12-Month Forward Prices Through $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ / MWH Peak $35.30 Off-Peak $22.91 Average $28.49 Peak Off-Peak Round-the-Clock Page 1 PJM Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices PJM balancing operating reserve ( BOR ) costs in August averaged.03 per MWH for Day-Ahead energy and.51 per MWH for Real- Time energy. Suppliers generally include the Day-Ahead BOR cost in their ancillary service charge but will separately add the Real-Time BOR cost to Real-Time energy purchases. PJM Operating Reserve Costs ComEd Zone ($ per MWH) ComEd BES-H Mo. Avg Peak Off-Peak Mo. Avg Peak Off-Peak Mo.Avg Apr-15 $24.77 $29.57 $20.18 $24.75 $29.14 $20.56 $27.64 Aug-15 $27.20 $32.25 $23.05 $26.31 $32.78 $20.99 $28.51 $28.12 $34.58 $21.94 $29.54 $35.32 $24.01 $31.67 Oct-15 $25.43 $31.15 $20.29 $25.00 $30.52 $20.05 $26.84 $25.52 $30.12 $21.51 $25.39 $30.15 $21.23 $27.39 Dec-15 $22.87 $26.79 $19.03 $23.64 $28.47 $18.93 $25.44 $24.63 $29.51 $20.95 $23.91 $29.62 $19.60 $25.66 Feb-16 $23.31 $26.82 $20.03 $22.60 $27.26 $18.24 $24.19 $22.96 $26.55 $19.44 $21.88 $25.48 $18.36 $23.43 Apr-16 $24.08 $29.27 $19.55 $24.56 $30.84 $19.06 $26.30 $22.27 $27.53 $17.95 $22.10 $27.44 $17.71 $23.67 Jun-16 $25.14 $30.05 $20.45 $26.54 $31.35 $21.93 $28.42 Jul-16 $30.86 $40.04 $23.31 $28.49 $34.81 $23.29 $30.51 Aug-16 $30.09 $37.19 $23.15 $31.56 $40.66 $22.65 $33.80 Cal '15 $28.01 $33.95 $22.69 $28.21 $34.11 $22.91 $30.75 Cal '16 $25.45 $30.90 $20.61 $25.23 $31.00 $20.11 $27.02 NERC Hours (6 AM TO 10 PM) Day-Ahead LMP ComEd Zonal Price - $/ MWH Real-Time LMP (a) (b) (c = b-c) (d) (e) (f = e-d) (g = c+f) Balancing Operating Reserve Costs PJM Index Prices - ComEd Zone Net Increase Average BORs Day-Ahead Real-Time RT less DA DA RT RT less DA in RT Costs to Dec-15.12 $1.05.93 $28.11 $28.31.20 $1.14 to Aug-16.08.29.21 $25.45 $25.23 -.22 -.01.10.26.16 $24.63 $23.91 -.72 -.56 Feb-16.11.27.15 $23.29 $22.58 -.72 -.56.10.21.11 $22.96 $21.89 -$1.07 -.96 Apr-16.05.32.27 $24.08 $24.55.47.74.05.18.13 $22.27 $22.10 -.17 -.03 Jun-16.07.32.25 $25.14 $26.54 $1.40 $1.65 Jul-16.05.44.39 $30.86 $28.49 -$2.37 -$1.98 Aug-16.03.51.48 $30.09 $31.56 $1.47 $1.94
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 $ per MWH Natural Gas: Short-Term Outlook PJM Day-Ahead Prices for ComEd Zone Daily Average Hourly Prices Through August 31, 2016 In its September 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) reported natural gas storage inventories of 3,401 Bcf at the end of August. On August 26 inventories were 8% higher than levels last year at that time and 11% higher than the five-year average. The EIA is still predicting record high levels at the end of October. The end of October level estimate is 4,042 Bcf. $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 The EIA is expecting natural gas prices to average $2.42 per MMBtu in 2016 and $2.87 per MMBtu in 2017. These estimates are essentially unchanged from EIA estimates in August. On September 12, 2016 NOAA reported that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation ENSO is in a neutral state and is favored to remain neutral through fall and winter 2016-17. Forecasters have dropped the La Niña watch which usually means a drier and a potentially colder than normal winter for the Midwest. NOAA reported on September 8 that Summer 2016 tied for 2006 as the 5th warmest in 122 years of record keeping. Year to date (January- August) has been the 3rd warmest on record with an average temperature of 56.7 F, 2.8 F above average. Daily Average Month Average Page 2
$ per MMBtu Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-13 Settlement Prices ($/MMBtu) Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 The closing 12-month forward Henry Hub NYMEX price for the September 2016 to August 2017 period was $3.087 per MMBtu. The forward 12- month Chicago delivered price beginning September 2016 was $3.133 per MMBtu including a Chicago basis of.046 per MMBtu. The September 2016 NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract settled at $2.853 per MMBtu, an increase of.189 per MMBtu from the September settlement price of $2.672 per MMBtu. The September NYMEX Chicago Inside FERC price settled at $2.815 per MMBtu compared to $2.67 per MMBtu for August. NYMEX futures prices, local distribution company gas costs, storage volumes and rig counts are summarized in the following graphs and tables. $7 $6 $5 NYMEX Natural Gas 12-Month Forward Price Trend September 2016 - Last Day Settlement 12-Month NYMEX Forw ard $3.087 Chicago Basis.046 12-Month "Chicago" Total $3.133 NYMEX Natural Gas Settlement Prices on Last Trade Day of August 2016 and July 2016 Contracts $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 Aug-16 settlement prices settlement prices Closing Settlement Price September 1, 2016 NYMEX Close $2.853 Chicago Basis -.038 Chicago Price $2.815 $4 $1.0 $3 $2 $1 Prompt Month 12-Month Forward Page 3 The following chart compares the monthly price of the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract to the NYMEX Chicago price. NYMEX offers a futures contract that is settled at the Platt s Inside FERC monthly index price for Chicago. As shown in the following Chicago Basis chart, the forward Henry Hub and Chicago prices are relatively close. The 12-month forward average basis (Chicago price less Henry Hub price) was -.038 per MMBtu on September 1, 2016. The actual basis price a supplier offers may differ from the NYMEX calculated price because there is not a significant amount of price transparency in basis offers.
$ per MMBtu Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Jul-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 -$2 Chicago Basis NYMEX Chicago vs. NYMEX Henry Hub Prices NYMEX Actual settlement prices for to period. Current forward prices for Oct-16 to Dec-17 period. Chicago - Platts Inside FERC Utility Natural Gas Supply Costs September 2016 ($/Therm) Page 4 Forward Prices Gas Supply Costs: Peoples Gas North Shore NICOR Bundled Gas Supply Cost.3492.4086.3800 Commodity Gas Charge.2917.2984.3254 Non-Commodity Charge.0575.1102.0547 Standby Demand Charge.2898.5601.5689 Storage Gas Charge.0075.0118 Environmental Surcharges Rider 11, Peoples and North Shore.0203.0061 Rider 12, NICOR - Small C&I.0005 Rider 12, NICOR - Large C&I.0021 Rider VBA - Balancing Adjustment (.0087) (.0097) Hub Service Credit - Sales.0000 Hub Service Credit - Transportation.0000 NICOR Transportation Service Adj. (.0002) NICOR, Rider 5 Storage Adj. Factor (.0001) Qualifying Infrastructure Surcharge 10.69% 0.00% 10.30% Natural Gas Price Summary Comparison September 2016 ($ per MMBtu) Burner-Tip $/MMBtu NYMEX Final Settlement Price $2.853 NYMEX Chicago Basis (.038) Chicago City-gate Price (b) $2.815 Local Distribution $ (a) Peoples Gas Burner-Tip Price Rate 2 - Utility Supply Service, 3,500 MMBtu $5.542 $2.727 Rate 4 - Utility Supply Service, 15,000 MMBtu $5.587 $2.772 Rate 4 - Utility Supply Service, 60,000 MMBtu $5.446 $2.631 Rate 2, SST, 29 Days Storage, 3,500 MMBtu $5.486 $2.671 Rate 4, LST, 29 Days Storage, 15,000 MMBtu $5.332 $2.517 Rate 4, LST, 29 Days Storage, 60,000 MMBtu $5.173 $2.358 North Shore Burner-Tip Price Rate 2 - Utility Supply Service, 3,500 MMBtu $4.932 $2.117 Rate 3 - Utility Supply Service, 60,000 MMBtu $4.842 $2.027 Rate 2, SST, 24 Days Storage, 3,500 MMBtu $3.843 $1.028 Rate 3, LST, 24 Days Storage, 60,000 MMBtu $3.693.878 NICor Burner-Tip Price Rate 6 - Utility Supply Service, 15,000 MMBtu $4.187 $1.372 Rate 7 - Utility Supply Service, 60,000 MMBtu $4.243 $1.428 Rate 76, 0% Standby, 15,000 MMBtu (c) $3.443.628 Rate 77, 0% Standby, 60,000 MMBtu (c) $3.508.693 (a) Local distribution charge = burner-tip less city-gate price. Includes all taxes, city fees and gas loss costs. (b) NYMEX last day settlement price plus NYMEX Chicago basis sw ap last day settlement price. (c) Assumes 31 days storage in place of standby service.
Billion Cubic Feet (Bcf) Mar-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jun-16 Aug-16 # of Rigs 07-Jan-05 02-Sep-05 28-Apr-06 22-Dec-06 17-Aug-07 11-Apr-08 05-Dec-08 31-Jul-09 26-Mar-10 19-Nov-10 15-Jul-11 09-Mar-12 02-Nov-12 28-Jun-13 10-05- 24-Apr-15 18-Dec-15 12-Aug-16 EIA Weekly Storage Report January 2012 through September 2, 2016 2,500 Natural Gas Rig Count January 2005 Through 4,000 Nat Gas Oil 3,500 3,000 2,000 2,500 1,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 0 Current Five-Year Average Last Year 0 Natural Gas Storage Summary on September 2, 2016 9/2/2016 Difference BCF BCF % Change Current Total 3,437 Last Year 3,241 196 6.0% 5-Year Average 3,131 306 9.8% Page 5 Rig Count on 9/9/16 9/11/15 % Change Gas 92 196-53% Oil 414 652-37% Misc. 2 - Total 508 848-40%