M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Projections of global emissions of air pollutants TFHT Workshop on Emission Inventories and Projections Beijing, October 18-2, 26
Current legislation projections of EU-25 emissions (CAFE and NEC analyses, EU-25, relative to the levels) 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 21 22 21 22 21 22 21 22 21 22 SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5 CAFE baseline National energy projections
Per-capita NO x emissions, 199-1 North America, 199 75 kg NOx/capita 5 FSU Europe, 199 25 East Asia South Asia 5 1 15 25 3 35 Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
Approach for emission projections Using global version of the GAINS/RAINS model Emission projections based on National projections of activity data Local emission factors Implementation of emission control measures Sources of activity data projections: Europe: RAINS/GAINS Europe national projections Asia: RAINS Asia national projections Russia: National data North America: National studies Other continents: IPCC SRES B2 scenario
Presentation of results Driving forces Resulting emission projections Main uncertainties Three groups of countries: OECD (Europe, North America, Japan, Australia) Asia Rest of world (Russia, Latin America, Africa) Graphs use same scale for all regions
Driving forces for emissions: Population (Governmental and UN projections) 45 45 45 4 4 4 35 35 35 3 3 3 25 25 25 15 15 15 1 1 1 5 5 5 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)
Driving forces for emissions: Population, GDP (PPP) (Governmental projections) 45 45 45 4 4 4 35 35 35 3 3 3 25 25 25 15 15 15 1 1 1 5 5 5 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)
Driving forces: Population, GDP (PPP) and energy demand 45 45 45 4 4 4 35 35 35 3 3 3 25 25 25 15 15 15 1 1 1 5 5 5 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)
Resulting projection of CO 2 emissions [Mt CO 2 ] 27 45 27 45 27 45 24 4 24 4 24 4 21 35 21 35 21 35 18 3 18 3 18 3 15 25 15 25 15 25 1 1 1 9 15 9 15 9 15 6 1 6 1 6 1 3 5 3 5 3 5 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)
Global CO 2 emissions resulting from the collected national activity projections 45 4 35 3 Mt CO 2 25 15 1 5 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world
Emission standards for gasoline vehicles Current legislation (as of early 25) 21 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 25
Current legislation projection of NO x emissions [Mt NO x ] 45 45 45 45 45 45 4 4 4 4 4 4 35 35 35 35 35 35 3 3 3 3 3 3 25 25 25 25 25 25 2 2 2 15 15 15 15 15 15 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 5 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)
Global NO x emissions by world region [Mt NO x ] 9 8 Latin America+ Africa 7 6 5 4 Other northern hemisphere South Asia East Asia 3 2 FSU Europe 1 199 21 22 23 North America
Per-capita NO x emissions, 199-23 1 75 Latin America+ Africa North America kg NOx/capita 5 FSU Europe 25 East Asia South Asia Other NH 5 1 15 25 3 35 Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
Per-capita NO x emissions, 194-23 1 North America 197 199 75 kg NOx/capita 5 194 199 199 25 FSU 23 Europe East Asia South Asia 5 1 15 25 3 35 Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
Current legislation projection of SO 2 emissions [Mt SO 2 ] 54 45 54 45 54 45 48 4 48 4 48 4 42 35 42 35 42 35 36 3 36 3 36 3 3 25 3 25 3 25 24 24 24 18 15 18 15 18 15 12 1 12 1 12 1 6 5 6 5 6 5 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)
Global SO 2 emissions by world region [Mt SO 2 ] 14 12 Latin America+ Africa 1 Other northern hemisphere 8 South Asia 6 East Asia 4 FSU Europe 2 North America 199 21 22 23
Per-capita SO 2 emissions, 199-1 North America, 199 75 kg SO2/capita 5 FSU, 199 Europe, 199 25 East Asia South Asia 5 1 15 25 3 35 Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
Projections of per-capita SO 2 emissions, 199-23 1 Latin America+ Africa North America 75 kg SO2/capita 5 FSU Europe 25 East Asia South Asia Other NH 5 1 15 25 3 35 Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
Per-capita SO 2 emissions, 194-23 15 125 194 197 North America 1 kg SO2/capita 75 199 199 5 199 25 South Asia FSU East Asia Europe 5 1 15 25 3 35 Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP 23
Projections of CH 4 and BC emissions [Mt] 45 6 4 CH 4 35 3 5 4 Black carbon 25 3 2 15 2 1 5 1 199 21 22 23 OECD 9 Russia Asia Africa and Latin America 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Africa and Latin America
Key uncertainties in emission projections Enforcement of existing legislation Economic projections Further tightening of air quality legislation
Potential for further emission controls from existing end-of-pipe technologies [Mt] 1 14 6 8 12 5 1 4 6 8 3 4 6 4 2 2 2 1 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 199 21 22 23 NO x SO 2 Black carbon OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Africa and Latin America Maximum technically feasible reduction
Key uncertainties in emission projections Enforcement of existing legislation Economic projections Further tightening of air quality legislation Future policies on CO 2 mitigation
Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO 2 mitigation GAINS estimates for EU-25, 22 12% Air pollutant emissions relative to a case 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 9 CAFE BL 2 National NEC projections 6% 75% 8% 85% 9% 95% 1% 15% CO 2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions SO2 NOx PM25
Summary For current expectations on economic development and legislation Per-capita emissions of NO x, SO 2, PM: In OECD declining In developing countries ~ stabilizing, at a low level! Total emissions up to 23: In OECD declining In developing countries: increasing Globally: NO x stabilizing SO 2, PM declining But CO 2, CH 4 increasing
Conclusions Despite (because?) of high pollution concentration levels (e.g., in urban areas), developing countries are not likely to repeat high per-capita levels of air pollutant emissions that have occurred in OECD countries. But no trend reversal for GHG emissions in sight Key uncertainties: Enforcement of legislation Further measures Future climate policies